Official post-election assessments by our friends in the progressive community have alternated between those that see the glass:
1. Half Full -- lots of engagement by new people and organizations, increased turnout on the Democratic side, all providing positive energy to build on for the future
2. Half Empty -- a need to radically revise the Democratic message on national security, basic values, and other bedrock issues while building a new infrastructure from the grassroots on up to the level of think tanks/intellectual capital/media outreach.
And privately, many of our friends and colleagues have a third, more apocalyptic view: they see the glass as teetering on the edge of the table, about to fall and shatter into a thousand pieces. Regardless of which view you take (and the next few weeks may not be the time to come to any final judgments!), one thing is for certain, we need all hands on deck to deal with the implications of a second Bush term.

Now is the time to screw on our courage and get back out there. Keep doing what we were doing and do more of it. Do it smarter and do it more strategically. Build blue political power, and move the Democrats to the left. Refute the claims of compassion and conservation of the "compassionate conservatives."

In his address on November 4th President Bush said, "I earned capital in this election and I am going to spend it." It sent chills down our spines. What does that mean? A mandate to bomb Fallujah, to bring more troops into Iraq, to apply the "Iraq" model to proliferation in Iran and North Korea, to roll civil rights back even further in the U.S.? And worse?

On foreign policy, some of the more extreme elements of the neo-conservative agenda may be reined in by the reality of the fiasco they have created in Iraq, which is draining blood and treasure at an accelerating rate with no clear end in sight (barring a radical reconsideration of the goals of U.S. policy). This may provide some leverage to press for good faith negotiations in North Korea and Iran, although much may depend on who is appointed Secretary of State, and whether neo-cons are eased out of key mid-level positions at the Pentagon and in the White House in favor of more pragmatic advisors.

Star Wars and a new generation of low-yield and bunker busting nuclear weapons will still be on the administration's agenda, and the challenge will be to educate a broader segment of the public (and at least some Congressional Republicans) about the risks and costs of proceeding with these ill-conceived programs. Efforts to block the worst features of the Bush foreign policy agenda while pressing for positive movement on a few key issues will be greatly enhanced if there is movement on broader political reform happening in parallel to these efforts.

In his TalkingPointsMemo.com, Joshua Micah Marshall reminds us that while Bush claims that his win represents a broad affirmation of his policies and gives him a mandate, in reality 51% of the popular vote is a skin of the teeth win. It is the narrowest victory by an incumbent president since Woodrow Wilson's re-election in 1916.

He says:
"This isn't 1964 or 1972 or 1980. This wasn't a blowout or a repudiation. It was close to a tie -- unfortunately, on the other guy's side. Let's not put our heads in the sand but let's also not get knocked off our game. Democrats need to think critically and seriously about why this didn't turn out 51% for Kerry or 55% for Kerry (and we'll get to those points in the future).

"Take time to feel the desolation and disappointment. But I remain confident that time is not on the side of the kind of values and politics that President Bush represents. It took conservatives two decades to build up the institutional muscle they have today*. President Bush and the Republicans now control the entire national government, even more surely now than they have over the last four years. They do so on the basis of garnering the votes of 51% or 52% of the population. But they will use that power as though there were no opposition at all. That needs to be countered."

Marshall recalls a conversation with Simon Rosenberg, the head of New Democrat Network, whose mission is to modernize progressive politics, build a new and durable Democratic majority, and advocate for an agenda that will create a better future for our children.

Rosenberg is taking a long view, acknowledging that the Democrats are far behind the Republicans in institution building that supports political thought, strategy and action.

NDN seeks to fill that gap. Marshall notes that there is a need for institutions and organizational infrastructure that can sustain energy and power when people's interest cools or dissipates - especially after a disappointment like Kerry's loss.

"What Democrats have begun to build over the last two years is tremendously important. It just wasn't enough, not yet." Simon Rosenberg says that efforts to create a Democratic-leaning counter-establishment along the lines of what Republicans did two generations ago -- with an alternative media, activist groups, organized political giving, in short, a political infrastructure -- will take ten years to build.

Marshall encourages us to keep doing that work, saying, "Leave today for disappointment. Tomorrow, think over which of these various groups and organizations you think has made the best start toward what I've described above, go to their website, and give money or volunteer*. You shouldn't lose heart. The same division in the country remains, the same stalemate. The other side just got the ball a yard or two into our side of the field rather than the reverse. And we have to deal with the serious consequences of that. Tomorrow's the day to start."

Read his whole message on his site: www.talkingpointsmemo.com

Matt Bai wrote a long article for the New York Times magazine in July 2004 called "Wiring the Vast Left Wing Conspiracy" about who is doing that work and how.... It is worth a read.