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Jonathan Power: The Triangle Of Madness

December 4th, 2008 Rory Donnelly Posted in Diplomacy, India, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, Terrorism No Comments »

“Those whom the gods destroy they first make mad.”
- Euripides

There is a madness about the triangular relationship between India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. They all have resented and often hated each other; made alliances against each other; worked together when it was opportune; supported or, at least, turned too much of a blind eye to terrorists in each other’s countries; and became profoundly angry if terrorism was unleashed against them.

These cleavages have their roots in the Great Game, the nineteenth century British-Russian struggle for supremacy in Afghanistan and central Asia.

But ever since the Red Army invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and was finally defeated by the Taliban (aided by American, Saudi Arabian, and Indian arms and training), the intensity of the regional rivalry has been ratcheted up and extended to frightening proportions, worsened by America’s decision to wage war in Central Asia. It is no longer just a Great Game. It has become a Great Madness. One hostile act impacts on another and then the two together create a third, then three together create a fourth…and so on.

It has long been known that the Pakistan-based terrorists who have struggled to liberate Kashmir from India’s grip have close connections with the Taliban. There is also little doubt that those Pakistani terrorists whose primary interest is a free Kashmir aim to wound India’s growing political and diplomatic interests in Afghanistan. India, in turn, has aimed to encircle Pakistan in order to have a counter against Islamabad’s Kashmir ambitions. Read the rest of this entry »

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Jonathan Power: Next Step—Obama’s Foreign Policy

November 24th, 2008 Rory Donnelly Posted in Diplomacy, Economy, Iraq, U.S. Foreign Policy 1 Comment »

Jonathan Power“Come home, America,” said U.S. presidential candidate George McGovern during the Vietnam War, before suffering a bad defeat against Richard Nixon. But these are the words President-elect Barack Obama should be uttering today, if he wants to live up to the credo he enunciates in his books.

The Republicans—and some Democrats—will try to tear him apart for this, tarring him with the brush of isolationism. But it is not isolationism. If handled with perception and commitment for the long haul, this new policy can be a better form of engagement with the world and its problems. It is merely a different way of creating greater political order and more individual freedom.

It can be characterized as a policy of substituting the carrot for the stick, but this simplifies it unnecessarily. The carrot should be offered, but with it a reciprocal sense of self discipline and a commitment by the opponent to measure progress against the Charter of the United Nations and the resolutions of the Security Council—for when the Security Council agrees, it represents a formidable consensus of world opinion.

This kind of engagement has a long American tradition going back to 1916, with President Wilson´s aim to create a League of Nations. He failed, not because of his idealism or his commitment to solving disputes without major war, but because his tactics with regard to Senate ratification of the treaty were unnecessarily stubborn. Wilson also decried the European balance of power system (a favorite geopolitical cause of Henry Kissinger): “Now, revive that after the [First World] war is over and, sooner or later, you will have just such another war.”

We can go even further back, although not many commentators do, to the time of Theodore Roosevelt. He successfully mediated the Russo-Japanese war, for which he received the Nobel peace prize. It was he in fact, not Wilson, who was the first president to propose a League of Nations. He called it the “World League for the Peace of Righteousness,” a title which would have him laughed out of court in today’s cynical world.

“Coming Home to America” means getting out of Iraq, probably Afghanistan too, and not getting mixed up in Iran. But it also means stressing to antagonists the good that America can do with private investment, foreign aid, and the development of a common security whereby both sides´ right to individual political postures is recognized as long as they are non-threatening to others. In return for peace, America can offer recognition and security.

It also means being more serious about the role of the United Nations and trying to recreate the benign veto-free period of former President George H. W. Bush and the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev. It means re-adopting a policy, never followed up on, of President Bill Clinton to offer up U.S. soldiers for peacekeeping missions that would operate under the command of UN generals.

If this is isolationism the problem is not with the articulator of such a purpose but those who cling to the status quo, stirring up a false patriotism at the cost of young lives.

Obama’s temptation will be to compromise to assure that victory is not undermined, as were the pacific policies of former president Jimmy Carter by a more macho Congress and press. But he mustn´t, even though his opponents will throw at him all sorts of problems that they believe might at some point require the use of America´s mighty force. The whirlpool of American military spending (that dwarfs all the rest of the countries of the world added together) will also be tricky to avoid.

Opponents will throw at him Iran, Taiwan, China, North Korea, a resurgent Russia, unrest in Saudi Arabia and the oil producing nations of Nigeria and the Central Asian ex-Soviet republics, not to mention Israel and Palestine. It seems a long time since Colin Powell, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, “I´m running out of enemies.”

In Harvard´s quarterly International Security, Professor Harvey Sapolsky published an article on the theme, “Come Home, America: the Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation.” It was published in 1997 but it needs to be read again. Much damage to the world could have been avoided if its prescient observations and prescriptions had been followed.

“The U.S.,” he writes, “can spend much less than it does today and still be much more secure than it was during the Cold War. It is not at all clear what, if anything, Americans are getting for their extra defense dollars.”

Beginning with Europe, NATO should be dismantled. The threat that NATO was created to deter disappeared when the Soviet Union collapsed. U.S. soldiers and nuclear missiles should be withdrawn from European soil. Expanding NATO not only broke a solemn American promise to the Soviet Union, it unnecessarily created an uncooperative Russia. Let the European Union take the strain, by trade, investment, and political intimacy—Brussels’ hallmarks.

Likewise, most American troops in Asia should come home. No Asian ally faces an overwhelming threat, and what dangers they face they can handle themselves—as, say, Taiwan is doing with its mixture of a superior air force and clever diplomacy. Japan faces no serious threat, and China wants Japanese investment more than anything else. North Korea´s nuclear bomb is now being confronted, late in George W. Bush´s day, with sophisticated diplomacy which—if applied earlier—could have avoided the bomb and probably halted North Korea´s urge to produce plutonium and enrich uranium.

American oil interests are at the center of America´s Middle East policy. But for any other nation to conquer the majority of territory containing Gulf oil would require an enormous army to cover a vast area. Who can do that?

As for Israel, it is more than capable of defending itself—it out-spends and out-equips in military hardware all the Arab nations combined together.

As for an Indo-Pakistani nuclear war it would be a terrible thing, but it makes no sense for the U.S. to get in the middle.

One could go on and on with such examples. Wars on distant continents will only threaten American security if the U.S sticks its nose in the middle. An Obama foreign policy cast on these lines would show the American public that reconciliation is cheaper and more effective than confrontation.

Jonathan Power is a syndicated columnist and a contributing editor of Prospect magazine, London. His most recent book is Conundrums of Humanity (Martinus Nijhoff, 2007).

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Our World In 25 Years

October 28th, 2008 Rory Donnelly Posted in Diplomacy, Economy, Globalization, U.S. Foreign Policy No Comments »

The following article appears in the 25th anniversary issue of World Policy Journal. For the month of November, read the entire 25th anniversary issue, fall 2008, for free!

A quarter century ago, in the fall of 1983, when World Policy Journal published its first issue, the world was a very different place. Can we even imagine those times? The Cold War very much defined the way nations interacted. Mutually Assured Destruction guaranteed the peace in a bipolar universe where two superpowers held unquestioned sway. Oil traded at $29 a barrel, and when we went to fill up our station wagon, gas cost just $1.19 a gallon. Billions of people were imprisoned behind borders they could cross only at their own peril, their movements controlled by governments that regulated every aspect of their lives. Indeed, nearly half the world’s people were ruled by a variety of totalitarian regimes with little opportunity to control their destinies or their fortunes.

Over those 25 years, this publication has chronicled a host of remarkable events: the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, the collapse, then rebirth, of a renascent Russian power, the emergence of a new economic and political force from what was once the Third World, and the arrival of Brazil, Russia, India, and China on the world stage, joining the community of rapidly developing nations. Capitalism replaced communism in a broad swath of the world, from eastern and central Europe across the vast Soviet steppes and on into China. Indeed, only tiny islands of communism still remain, awash in a sea of entrepreneurial, market economies and free societies. Continue reading…

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David A. Andelman: A Call to Arms…for Peace

September 17th, 2008 Rory Donnelly Posted in Diplomacy, Terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy No Comments »

David A. AndelmanOn Sunday, the third annual Global Creative Leadership Summit kicks off this year’s three-day session, bringing together more than 100 of the world’s greatest minds and leaders from a wide range of disciplines to examine the realities and seek innovative solutions for some of the most intractable global problems. Heads of state and government, Nobel laureates, world class journalists, scholars and educators will all gather in New York. The host and organizer is Louise Blouin MacBain, chairwoman of the Louise Blouin Foundation.

As a moderator and organizer from its inception, I’ve watched as a host of extraordinary individuals—from the founders of Wikipedia and Craigslist to heads of state as disparate as Croatia and Malawi to scholars of neuroscience, government, and a host of other disciplines—have debated the aspirations of Palestinians and Iranians, global gridlock from the environment to trade, security for the Internet, and global health and security. This year’s session promises ever larger and more ambitious outcomes.

But for a taste of what emerged from last year’s session, we have only to turn to the two keynote concluding addresses—from José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission and Dr. Bingu wa Mutharika, the President of Malawi each of whom had a unique take on the position of the developed and developing worlds.


YouTube - 2007 Spotlight on Africa


YouTube - 2007 Closing Remarks

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Jonathan Power: The False Dawn of Ethnic Conflict

September 4th, 2008 Rory Donnelly Posted in Diplomacy, Globalization, Russia No Comments »

Jonathan PowerFrom what many politicians and some of the press are saying, the house of ethnic togetherness is about to fall apart and the Ossetian withdrawal from Georgia is soon going to destabilize whole continents. No wonder that Beijing is opposing Moscow in rushing to recognize the new order in South Ossetia.

Is this a valid fear? Theoretically yes, historically no. A few years ago, the political scientists James Fearon and David Laitin studied ethnic division in Africa, a continent notorious for its wars. They identified tens of thousands of pairs of ethnic groups that could have been in conflict. But they did not find thousands of actual conflicts or hundreds of new states. Indeed, for every one thousand such pairs of ethnic conflicts they found fewer than three incidents of violent conflict. With only a few exceptions, state boundaries in Africa are the same as they were in 1960 at the time of the independence movement.

It is true that Africa over the last decade and a half has been through a period of great turmoil. But, according to the just-published annual report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Africa (along with Europe) is now the most peaceful continent in the world, with only one significant tribal or interstate conflict last year. Read the rest of this entry »

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Peter Morici: Playing Nice with Russia Has Failed

August 25th, 2008 Rory Donnelly Posted in Diplomacy, Europe, Free Trade, Germany, Russia No Comments »

Peter MoriciRussia’s invasion of Georgia should compel the United States and Europe to alter their policies of using economic engagement to promote democracy.

After the Cold War, the United States and Europe sought to integrate Russia, China, and their satellites into the Western market economy. Policymakers believed this would encourage democracy, human rights and a peaceful demeanor toward their neighbors.

Policymakers believed robust foreign commerce and free markets—privatization, private property, and business law—would expose these societies to Western culture and instigate expectations for personal freedoms and free elections. Market economies function best when individual initiative and property rights are protected by elected governments. Democratic capitalism has decidedly outperformed autocratic communist and fascist regimes. And prosperous nations, invested in global commerce, are less inclined toward aggression.

Russia instigated wide-ranging privatization and other market reforms, opened to foreign investment, and had a rocky experiment with democracy. From 1990 to 1995, gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 50 percent, thanks to falling prices for oil and metal exports, inadequate commercial law, cronyism, and corruption. Output stabilized for a few years, but then sank further after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Boris Yeltsin, largely discredited, turned over the presidency to Vladimir Putin in 1999.

Mr. Putin may be a capitalist, but he is no democrat. He maintained essential elements of a market economy but compromised elections, asserted control over regional governments and the judiciary, squelched personal freedoms, and sought to reestablish Russian influence, whenever possible, in former Soviet republics. Read the rest of this entry »

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Benjamin Pauker: Talking to Our Enemies

July 2nd, 2008 Joshua Miller Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, U.S. Foreign Policy 1 Comment »

Ben Pauker, Managing EditorThe savvy early adopters that read our nascent blog in its first few days last week might have noticed a curious banner advertisement, supplied by Google, along the right-hand side of our homepage. It was hard to miss.

Framed in black, the ad set photographs of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Barack Obama side by side, above the question: “Is it OK to Unconditionally Meet With Anti-American Foreign Leaders?” Below were two buttons: “Yes” and “No.” But the advertisement offered only the illusion of choice; neither button worked and a click sent one directly to a page on John McCain’s website.

While the World Policy Journal has always been a magazine of opinion—both left, right, and center (mostly left and center, to be fair)—the World Policy Institute, both the home and publisher of WPJ, is a “progressive” institution, and decidedly non-partisan. Not to mention that, as a registered non-profit, the Institute is prohibited from supporting political campaigns. The ad is now gone, banished from our site.

But there’s a much larger question lurking here behind McCain’s ad: when did the notion of “meeting” become such a scarlet letter? And how has active, engaged—dare we say preemptive—diplomacy with those who oppose us become tantamount to weakness?

This controversy began as an internecine war, touched off by Obama’s answer to a question posed to the candidates in the July 2007 YouTube debate. Asked whether he would, in the first year of his presidency, meet “without preconditions,” with the leaders of Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, and North Korea in order to “bridge the gap that divides our countries,” Obama responded affirmatively.

In what was perhaps a gut response, Obama recalled that both JFK and Reagan had met with their Soviet counterparts—not because they trusted them or doubted the very real danger that Moscow posed—but because negotiation, in and of itself, opened a door to the possibility of progress. Senator Clinton was quick to pounce, calling Obama naive, even reckless, and this line of attack has been gleefully inherited by the Republican nominee. It will no doubt intensify through November.
Read the rest of this entry »

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