It’s winter in Europe: time for snow, St. Nicholas, and the annual Russia-Ukraine dispute over natural gas supplies. On Wednesday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned his counterparts in Ukraine not to try to modify a 10-year gas supply contract between the two countries. It’s a warning not to take lightly—last January, Russia turned off the taps to the Ukrainian pipeline network over what they said was a billion dollar debt owed to them by Kiev and claimed the Ukrainians were siphoning off gas bound for countries further west in Europe. (For their part, Kiev blamed the missing gas on their leaky, outdated pipeline network rather than theft).
Last January’s shutdown had drastic effects. Europe receives about 20 percent of their natural gas supplies from the Russian pipeline network. Countries in the former Soviet-controlled East though get half, or in some cases almost all, of their supplies via Russia. The Russia-Ukraine gas feud shut factories, chilled cities, and provoked a crisis across much of Europe.
Russia has the second-largest known reserves of natural gas in the world; Turkmenistan is thought to have the third-largest reserves, and other Central Asian states have significant stocks of their own. Europe would like to tap into these gas fields with pipelines that avoid Russian territory. Moscow, meanwhile, is eager to lock these Central Asian supplies into new pipeline networks that they would build and operate, knowing that control over a big chunk of Europe’s energy supplies provides a huge amount of political leverage.
Pipelines have thus become a big political issue for Europe. And in the race to build new pipelines, lately Russia seems to be edging into the lead. Read the rest of this entry »
Representatives from the P5+1 met on Fridayin response to Iran’s rejectionof the uranium enrichment proposal earlier this week. In a joint statement released at the conclusion of the meeting, the P5+1 “urge[d] Iran to reconsider the opportunity offered by this agreement, and to engage seriously with us in dialogue and negotiations.” U.S. President Barack Obama will likely push for sanctions against Iran in the coming weeks. He elicited a bland but significant statement of support from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Sunday in Singapore but failed to win a similar statement from Chinese President Hu Jintao during Obama’s nine-day tour in Asia. A senior EU official confirmed that sanctions were discussed at the meeting but not in specific, actionable terms. Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), suggested that Iran’s Wednesday announcement should not necessarily be considered that nation’s final, written decision. “What I got is an oral response [from Tehran], basically saying we need to keep all the material in Iran until we get the fuel [rods].” Dr. ElBaradei lamented, “I would hate to see that we are moving back to sanctions because…sanctions are going to make things much worse.”
South Korean officials indicated Friday that they will not renegotiate its free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States signed in June 2007. Some U.S. officials and members of Congress believe the FTA, which is yet to be ratified, does not sufficiently balance South Korea’s $13 billion trade surplus, especially in the automotive industry. South Korea exports nearly 100 times the number of vehicles to the United States that it imports from American auto manufacturers. President Lee Myung-bak, welcoming President Obama to Seoul on Thursday, suggested he was willing to hear U.S. complaints about the agreement, which became a heated point of debate during the U.S. presidential elections and in Congress. “There’s a tendency to lump all of Asia together when Congress looks at trade agreements and says it appears this is a one-way street,” said Obama, in conciliatory remarks. On Friday, Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan emphasized that President Lee’s comments did not offer “renegotiation.” The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy estimated the FTA would boost South Korea’s long-term growth by 6 percent, creating 340,000 jobs; similarly, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimated the FTA would create 350,000 American jobs. Also on Friday, South Korea announced plans to ease rules on domestic investment and foreign entry, in hopes of dramatically increasing tourism and foreign investment.
The Chinese government came under scrutiny Thursday after secret scholarships awarded to children of Namibian officials were revealed. According to The New York Times, scholarships to study in China were given to the children of nine top Namibian officials, including the defense minister and President Hifikepunye Pohamba. First revealed by the Namibian tabloid Informante, the scholarship scandal unleashed a wave of fury from civil society groups and youth organizations, who say that it is unconscionable for well-paid officials to accept the scholarships while only one out of six high school graduates in Namibia is able to attend college. “Only senior people in government knew about the scholarships,” said Norman Tjombe, director of the nonprofit Legal Assistance Center. “No chance was given at all to the general public.” The budding relationship between China and Namibia, cemented through lucrative development deals, is already under scrutiny by Namibian prosecutors, and many now wonder if the scholarships are merely a Chinese attempt to buy influence from Namibia’s leadership to win more contracts for its companies that seek to do business there. “How is it that this favor just comes like manna from heaven?” Elijan Nguare, secretary general of Namibian governing party Swapo’s youth league, told The New York Times. “Clearly there must be something that they are after.” Government agencies in China have not commented as of this writing, but Namibia’s anti-corruption commission began an inquiry into how the scholarships were awarded.
Afghanistan’s minister of mines reportedly accepted a $30 million bribe from a Chinese mining firm, highlighting the corruption woes plaguing President Hamid Karzai’s administration as he prepares for his inauguration. An undisclosed U.S. official told The Washington Post that there is a “high degree of certainty” that Mohammad Ibrahim Adel accepted the payment from China’s state-run mining firm, Metallurgical Group Corp., in Dubai around December 2007. In exchange, the firm received a $2.9 billion contract for Afghanistan’s largest development project—to extract copper from the Aynak deposit in Logar province, thought to be one of the largest unexploited copper deposits in the world. Adel vigorously denied receiving any bribes or illicit payments during his tenure, saying, “I am responsible for the revenue and benefit of our people. All the time I’m following the law and the legislation for the benefit of the people.” But this is not the first time allegations of Adel’s misconduct have been raised. “There is a pattern of improprieties that have gone on. We do know that the World Bank procedures, and the government of Afghanistan procedures, were badly breached repeatedly,” a former American adviser to the ministry told the Post. “There is every reason to believe there were probably gratuities exchanged.” The announcement comes just in advance of President Hamid Karzai’s inauguration on Thursday, three months after an election marred by widespread fraud. Whether Karzai can effectively address the corruption that appears to pervade his government is the subject of much international scrutiny and is at the heart of Obama’s deliberations over the United States’ Afghan war strategy. In an effort to salvage his reputation, Karzai unveiled a new anti-corruption unit earlier this week, but a recent poll by The Washington Post and ABC News found that just 26 percent of Americans see Karzai as a “reliable partner” for the U.S. mission.
Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashemi has temporarily halted plans for a general election in January after he vetoed part of the recently passed election law. Iraq’s electoral commission stopped preparations for the election after al-Hashemi, a Sunni, sent the law back to parliament, saying he wants to see more representation for Iraqis living abroad, many of whom are Sunni Arabs. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called the veto a threat to democracy and the Iraqi political process. Iraqi electoral officials are all but conceding that sending the law back to parliament will delay the vote. The general election also has ramifications for the U.S.-led coalition, which is pushing for an election as soon as possible so the United States can being drawing down troops. Gen. Ray Odierno, the commanding general of U.S. forces, said the military was “flexible” and could adapt to a possible delay. Significant reductions of troops are not scheduled until the spring of next year.
The European Union plans to send 100 troops to Uganda to train up to 2,000 Somali government troops currently fighting Islamist insurgents. The EU plans to aid the fledgling transitional government, which only controls a small part of the capital, Mogadishu, after Somali pirates have stepped up attacks against Western vessels off the coast of Somalia. The mission is likely to be led by Spain, which will take over the EU presidency for six months next year. The EU training would bring the number of trained Somali soldiers to 6,000. EU leaders have said that a stronger Somali security force on the ground is the only way to successfully combat Somali piracy. “We clearly see that if we don’t help Somalia, then we could have the Atalanta operation for 20 or 30 years,” said French Defense Minister Herve Morin, referring to the EU naval operation currently underway.
Iran’s foreign minister said his country would not send enriched uranium abroad for further reprocessing, dismissing a deal pushed by the United States and its allies regarding Iran’s nuclear program. But Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki did say Iran would consider swapping the uranium for nuclear fuel and keeping it under supervision within the Islamic nation. The original deal, brokered by the International Atomic Energy Agency, calls for Iran to send 75 percent of its low-enriched uranium to Russia and France, which will turn it into fuel for a medical research reactor in Tehran. With the deal between the West and Iran looking uncertain, the IAEA denied a report in the Times of London that it was holding clandestine talks with Iran on its nuclear program. According to the report, nuclear watchdog officials have been attempting to persuade the West to lift sanctions against Iran and would allow Tehran to keep most of its nuclear program in exchange for cooperation with UN inspectors. A draft document of the deal was leaked to the Times as the IAEA warned that Iran could be hiding multiple secret nuclear sites. In a statement, the IAEA called the report “entirely baseless.”
Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission on Monday declared incumbent Hamid Karzai “the elected President of Afghanistan” for a second five-year term. The announcement comes one day after rival Abdullah Abdullah announced his withdrawal from a runoff planned for November 7. The second round balloting was canceled Monday morning after Abdullah withdrew. The number two finisher in the initial balloting on August 20 said he did not consider the Independent Election Commission to have been sufficiently reformed that a fair runoff could be guranteed, free from the widespread fraud that marked the first election round. The United States, Britain, and the United Nations each promptly issued congratulatory statements to President Karzai as the elected head of state, and others are expected to follow. Analysts believe, however, that American officials will continue to lead an intense diplomatic effort to reconcile the two candidates’ supporters and unify the country, perhaps through Karzai offering Abdullah a senior office in his administration. In a surprise visit to Kabul Monday, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon exhorted Karzai to “move swiftly to form a government that is able to command the support of both the Afghan people and the international community.” Speaking at his home after the press conference, Dr. Abdullah rejected any suggestion of joining Karzai’s administration—he had formerly served as Karzai’s Foreign Minister but left after a bitter falling out—and said of his withdrawal, “I did it with a lot of pain, but at the same time with a lot of hope for the future. Because this will not be the end of anything, this will be a new beginning.” President Obama is scheduled to lead two National Security Council meetings at the White House on Afghanistan this week as he further considers his administration’s policy and further troop commitments. These deliberations had been clouded by uncertainty over the Afghan administration that would emerge from the election process.
The Pakistani military announced Monday it has captured the towns of Kaniguram, Cheena, and Makeen, strategic Taliban strongholds in the South Waziristan region of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The military, which began its current offensive on October 17, has reportedly cleared the captured areas of all insurgents, mines, and improvised explosive devices. The Pakistani government is now offering rewards totaling $5 million for information leading to the capture of Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, and 17 other Taliban leaders. Meanwhile, bombings continued to shake Pakistan on Monday, largely in response to the ongoing military offensive, as one bomb near military headquarters in Rawalpindi killed 30 people, including military officers and some civilians, in a crowded pedestrian area; and. Additionally, two suicide bombings at a security checkpoint in Lahore, Pakistan’s cultural center, killed a policeman and injured 25 civilians. A series of ten bombings have killed more than 300 Pakistani civilians since mid-October.
North Korea again pressed the United States to open direct bilateral talks, warning that it was prepared to “go its own way” with its nuclear program should Washington remain unresponsive. “It’s time for the United States to make a decision,” an unidentified spokesman for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry told the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Monday. “We have made it clear that we are ready to take part in multilateral talks, including the six-party talks, depending on the results of talks with the United States . . . If the United States is not ready to sit down face-to-face with us for talks, we cannot but go on our own way,” he added. The statement follows a rare meeting between Ri Gun, North Korea’s deputy nuclear envoy, and Sung Kim, the American special envoy on the North’s nuclear disarmament, in New York and San Diego last week. After months of defiance, North Korea has recently signaled a willingness to return to disarmament negotiations. Last month, it reaffirmed its invitation for Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. special representative for North Korea policy, to visit Pyongyang. Leader Kim Jong-Il also told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao last month that his country would consider a return to multilateral negotiations, which stalled in April after Pyongyang quit the forum and later conducted nuclear and long-range missile tests.But the North maintained that any return to the six-party framework; which brings together envoys from North Korea, the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea; depended on the progress of bilateral talks with Washington. to amend “hostile relations.” North Korea’s spokesman reiterated this on Monday, saying “the direct parties, which are the North and the United States, must first sit down and find a rational solution . . . [If the two countries] end the hostile relationship and build trust, there will be a meaningful step toward the denuclearizing of the Korean peninsula.” But whether this will be enough to convince the Obama administration to meet one-on-one is unclear; Washington has said it will only agree to direct talks as part of a resumption of the broader, six-party dialogue.
The UN suspended its support for army units operating in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, accusing the Congolese army of deliberately killing more than 60 civilians this year. After a tour of the region, UN peackeeping chief Alain Le Roy said the army had “clearly targeted” civilians, and that the United Nations mission in DR Congo (MONUC) would “immediately suspend its logistical and operational support to the army units implicated” in civilian killings between May and December. Congolese government spokesman Lambert Mende objected to the decision, saying the investigation was still ongoing. “We are surprised that the United Nations has announced sanctions against these units even before the conclusion of their investigation,” he said on Monday, warning that a withdrawal of support could destabilize the army. MONUC has backed the Congolese army in its military operations against Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels since January, and has provided logistical assistance in the east since a joint Rwandan and Congolese military operation was launched against against the rebel group in March. But the operation has come under widespread criticism for human rights abuses. According to human rights groups, more than 1,000 civilians have been killed, more than 7,000 women and girls raped, and more than 900,000 people forced to flee their homes since operations began in January.
Delegates from 180 countries are gathered in Barcelona today for five days of negotiations toward drafting a successor treaty to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol in advance of the symbolic Copenhagen Conference to be held December 7-18. The Barcelona preparatory round is aimed at reconciling an apparent impasse over the contentious issue of technology financing to developing nations. Strains were evident last week when the European Commission agreed that the cost of helping developing nations to reduce carbon emissions by 2020 would total about $150 billion, but talks became stalemated over the question of which nations would pay which proportion of those costs. Central and Eastern European nations, for example, which depend heavily on coal-fired power generation, warned they could not afford to pay in proportion to their emissions. Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, said that a full legally-binding treaty is unlikely at Copenhagen, but he noted that he was still convinced a political deal was possible. Danish Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard noted wryly, “Failure is the only thing we can’t afford.”
At negotiations in Geneva between the P5+1 and Iran, Iran agreed to allow IAEA inspectors into its declared nuclear facilities at Natanz and Qom. It also accepted in principal an offer from Russia and France, with U.S. support, to process most of Iran’s low-enriched uranium into nuclear isotopes for medical use in cancer treatment. Still, Friday morning, it appeared that the Iranian government had displayed little interest in abandoning any facet of its nuclear enrichment program that it continues to insist is designed purely for peaceful purposes. After the Geneva meeting, President Obama demanded that Iran allow Mohamed El-Baradei, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to inspect Iran’s nuclear facilities in the next two weeks and to cooperate by making available all relevant personnel and documents. The New York Times reports that “many diplomats and analysts believe that the plant near Qom is only one of a series of hidden installations that Iran has constructed, in addition to its publicly acknowledged ones, for what is considered to be a military program.” The medical nuclear isotope proposal exploits Iran’s demand for developing cancer treatments for some of its ailing senior leaders. Iran had previously imported relatively low-enriched uranium from Argentina but, in revealing the program to the IAEA earlier this year, admitted its stockpile was quickly depleting. Under the proposal, which Iran has agreed to in principal and is to be discussed in a subsequent meeting in Vienna on October 18, Iran will ship “most” of its nuclear material to Russia for enrichment and to France for conversion to fuel rods before being shipped back to Iran for medical and civilian power use under IAEA supervision. President Obama called the talks a “constructive beginning” but cautioned, “If Iran does not take steps in the near future to live up to its obligations, then the United States will not continue to negotiate indefinitely.” At an afternoon meeting of the first U.S.-Iran bilateral meetings in nearly 30 years, U.S. Under Secretary of State William J. Burns (the senior U.S. Foreign Service Officer) met with chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, who later reiterated Iran’s commitment to a world free of nuclear weapons but insisted upon Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear energy program. “We are committed to our commitment in the framework of the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), and at the same time we will go ahead and stick to our nuclear rights in the framework of the NPT.”
In an impassioned appeal at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, Somalian President Sheikh Sarif Sheikh Ahmed implored the international communityfor increased security and humanitarian assistance in his country. Sharif, who leads Somalia’s Western-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG), called on Washington and other nations to live up to their promises of aid. “We received many promises and pledges, but, unfortunately, the government hasn’t received the fulfillment of these pledges which has slowed down progress,” he said. “The international community seems not be ready to do anything for Somalia.” His remarks, delivered at CSIS to a standing-room only audience, followed meetings with U.S. officials and a visit to the United Nations in New York. Back at home, though, fierce clashes between Islamist rebel groups broke out in the southern city of Kismayo. Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam, Somalia’s two most powerful rebel groups, engaged in fighting on Thursday in the strategic port city, which they had jointly controlled before declaring war on each other earlier this week. As of Friday morning, at least 29 had been killed and more than 80 wounded in the clashes, and Al-Shabaab had taken control of the city. But fears that the fighting could spread are still quite real, and militants have imposed a daytime curfew on the citizens that have not yet fled Kismayo.
General Stanley A. McChrystal, the senior military commander in Afghanistan, made his first public statement since his Initial Commander’s Assessment was leaked to the public last month. In it, he grounded the mission in Afghanistan firmly within the principles of counterinsurgency and called for an increased U.S.-NATO coalition commitment to the mission. “At the end of the day,” he said, “we don’t win by destroying the Taliban, we don’t win by body counts, we don’t win by number of successful military raids or attacks. We win when the people decide we win.” He warned that “a strategy that does not leave Afghanistan in a stable position is probably a short-sighted strategy,” though he did not elaborate. McChrystal’s statement comes as the Obama administration is reconsidering the United States’ fundamental strategic interests in Afghanistan and South Asia, while determining whether those interests effectively fulfill McChrystal’s recent, classified request for forces, or treat the mission as purely a counterterrorist operation. McChrystal left no doubt on Thursday that he strongly believes U.S. strategic interests in Afghanistan are important, are threatened by the prospect of mission failure, and can be addressed through a counterinsurgency strategy that is bolstered by more resources. McChrystal did admit, however, “if that debate is necessary for a strong decision that is backed by resolve, then I think we have to take that time.” In public statements, the administration has insisted the mission is not nation-building, but designed to destroy terrorist organizations. Still, the administration’s metrics for mission success suggest more ambitious goals, especially metric “3b.” The goal, he continued, is to “promote a more capable, accountable, and effective government in Afghanistan that serves the Afghan people and can eventually function, especially regarding internal security, with limited international support.” Highlighting the debate, initial reports Friday morning claim that a NATO air strike killed several Afghans after NATO soldiers began taking fire. NATO air strikes have proven a remarkably effective counterterrorism tactic–killing Taliban fighters and senior leadership–but have been counterproductive in winning Afghan hearts and minds as part of the counterinsurgency effort.
For more on the situation in Afghanistan, see this week’s “Big Question” on the World Policy Blog.
Irish voters head to the polls todayfor a second referendum on the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty after rejecting it in June 2008. The purpose of the Treaty of Lisbon is to streamline EU decision-making. It has been in negotiations for nearly a decade and must be ratified by every EU country before it can take effect, and includes provisions to redistribute voting power within the EU, make its human rights charter legally binding, and reduce the number of commissioners in the European Commission. It also establishes a two-and-a-half year term for the European Council president—currently, presidents rotate on a six-month cycle—and condenses the existing offices of foreign affairs and external affairs chiefs into a High Representative on Foreign Affairs. Such reforms would presumably increase the EU’s clout on the world stage, but many argue that it would centralize EU power at the expense of national sovereignty. This was the main issue at stake when Ireland rejected the treaty in its first referendum last June. But the EU has made certain conciliatory gestures toward Ireland in the meantime, like assuring it that it would not lose its commissioner or be forced to change its anti-abortion laws. At the same time, the tumultuous economic climate has left many Irish voters seeking a closer embrace with their government’s partnership with its European neighbors. Brian Cowen, Ireland’s Taoiseach or prime minister, pleaded with his constituents for a “yes” vote in the referendum, but insists that if it fails, no more will be held. “There will not be a Lisbon Three—that’s for sure,” he said to reporters on Thursday. As of Friday afternoon, turnout was reported to be “low and slow,” though voting in Dublin was up substantially from last year’s count. “Friday is an important day for Ireland, and for the whole of the European Union,” said European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek on Thursday. “I hope the Irish people do come out and vote in large numbers, and I strongly encourage them to do so.”
Closing Remarks: President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson of Iceland
Summary by Josh Sanburn, World Policy Journal
After three days in which global leaders, academics and entrepreneurs addressed the world’s most pressing problems, the closing keynote speaker identified the financial crisis, the need for a green energy revolution and climate change as the three most important issues, all of which are irreversibly linked. “None of these three crises can be solved without solving the other,” he said.
The financial crisis has shown that people around the world fell victim to the notion that the market is paramount, he said. Icelanders have learned how fragile that idea really is. “It threatened the complete breakdown of of the social fabric of our society,” he said, citing riots and social unrest that occurred soon after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the United States last year.
President Grimsson called on leaders around the world to create a new philosophical and moral framework to avoid repeating the same mistakes. He tied the rise of a green energy revolution to stabilizing the economic sector, saying that Iceland now has a 100 percent clean energy economy. And greening the energy sector will naturally lead to a reduction in emissions.
To solve these problems, President Grimsson said countries around the world should place more regulations on financial institutions in order to rein in the excesses of a market economy, and he also challenged the United States and other countries to harnass geothermal energy to limit the use of fossil fuels.
“The political system was tested to its limit,” he said. “Even in the most stable and secure democracies, it almost resembled the revolutionary situations we read about in history books. But we have the capability and the mandate to solve these problems.”
PANEL: President Lech Kaczynski: Poland in Globalization
Introduction:
David A. Andelman, Editor, World Policy Journal
Featuring:
President Lech Kaczynski, Republic of Poland
Panel summary by Max Currier, World Policy Journal
Amid glazed sea bass and raspberry chocolate purse, David Andelman introduced Lech Kaczynski, president of the Republic of Poland, as “the leader of perhaps the single most dynamic nation to emerge from the Warsaw Pact.” President Kaczynski agreed, pointing out through a translator that Poland is a large geographic nation with an emerging economy that will soon be the sixth largest in the European Union in terms of GDP growth per capita. Poland, he later added, should be the 20th member of the G-20 because it is robust economically and it seeks to “contribute” as an engaging and productive member of the global economy.
Before a mixed European and American audience, President Kaczynski praised “the new U.S. administration” for taking “momentous decisions” regarding missile defense. “What we’re seeing is a new offer of American leadership in the world” based on “universal negotiations” for which “I wish all the best.” He characterized the U.S. “offer” in “the context of a changing multilateral world,” implying a difficulty in engaging both Europe and the United States, as well as Russia. “Reconciliation is better than conflict. … Development is always better than going backwards,” he said. “We will see in the coming years if this offer is doable.” Read the rest of this entry »
One in three votes cast for Afghanistan’s incumbent President Hamid Karzai in last month’s election was fraudulent, say EU election observers. According to EU Election Monitoring Commission, about 1.1 million votes in favor of Karzai, as well as 300,000 cast for his main rival Abdullah Abdullah, met Afghanistan’s criteria for electoral fraud. The findings were released as official election results now show Karzai winning with 54.6 percent of the vote. But if the suspect ballots to be excluded, Karzai’s share would fall to 47.2 percent–short of the 50 percent needed for a win and triggering a run-off election. Karzai furiously condemned the Commission’s claims as “partial, irresponsible and in contradiction with Afghanistan’s constitution.” Instead of publicizing their findings, Karzai continued, the monitors should be referring them to Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) and the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC). The EU team accused the IEC, which is chaired by a pro-Karzai appointee, of abetting the fraud, saying that it has ignored its own rules on identifying and eliminating suspect votes. The ECC ordered a recount of about 10 percent of the votes, as well as an audit of election staff.
A long-awaited UN probe found both Israel and Hamas committed war crimes in last year’s Gaza conflict. The four-person investigative team, led by South African war crimes prosecutor Richard Goldstone, reported that both sides violated international human rights and humanitarian law during the three-week operation in the Gaza Strip last December and January. The report condemned Palestinian militant groups for their repeated mortar attacks targeting Israeli citizens. But the focus was primarily on Israel’s use of “disproportionate force” against densely populated Gaza in Operation Cast Lead. In addition, the report said that Israel’s blockade of Gaza amounted to a collective punishment of civilians, and suggested that Palestinians had been deprive of substinence, employment, and movement–which could constitute a crime against humanity. The group recommended that the Security Council refer the case to the International Criminal Court (ICC) if independent, “good-faith” proceedings do not occur within six months. Israel denounced the report, rejecting it as one-sided and anti-Israeli. President Shimon Peres said that in practice, the report’s findings “[grant] legitimacy to terrorism, premeditated shooting and killing while ignoring the duty and the right of a state to defend itself.”
Somali rebels have called for all Muslims to join the fight against the U.N.-backed government after a U.S. helicopter raid killed one of the region’s most wanted al Qaeda suspects. The raid on Monday was an unusual one for the United States, which had previously targeted militants using long-range missiles rather than helicopter-borne troops. The operation killed Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, who was wanted for a 2002 truck bombing that killed 15 people at an Israeli-owned beach hotel in Mombasa, Kenya and was suspected of trying to shoot down an Israeli airliner the same year. Following the attack, a commander for al Shabab insurgents in Somalia called for Muslims to fight the weak transitional government as well as the African Union, which has troops there. The last American strike in Somalia was in May 2008, when an al-Shabab military leader and at least 10 others were killed. There were also reports quoting witnesses as saying that the troops involved in the Monday operation were wearing uniforms with French insignia, but the French military has strongly denied any involvement.
Yukio Hatoyama, the newly elected Japanese prime minister, took office Wednesday alongside a defense minister who, some reports are suggesting, will pull Japanese troops from the NATO-led military campaign in Afghanistan. An article in the Times of London suggests that the appointment of Toshimi Kitazawa, who is a strong opponent of the country’s military support for the United States, makes it increasingly likely that the Hatoyama-led government will withdraw forces from Afghanistan early next year. Japan’s Maritime Defense Forces only deployed a supply ship and a destroyer to assist in providing fuel and water to American and British naval ships in the Indian Ocean. The minimal Japanese assistance is one of only a handful of overseas military operations where the country has been engaged since World War II, largely due to its pacifist constitution. The new government is taking power after pledging to make domestic demand the engine of growth (rather than exports) and promising to pull Japan from the worst recession since World War II.
Following its submission of a brief proposal on Wednesday, Iran scheduled a meeting with the P5+1 for negotiations October 1. A spokesman to EU policy chief Javier Solana confirms that the P5+1—which includes the U.S., U.K., China, Russia, France, and Germany—requested the meeting, which was then arranged with Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili. Iran wants to discuss stabilization efforts in Afghanistan, ways to combat illicit drug trafficking, and “alleviating concerns over the nuclear issue,” said a spokesman for Iran’s ministry of foreign affairs, though it defends its right to maintain a civilian nuclear program. The United States has expressed cautious optimism about the potential of the discussions, but Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asserted that talks with Iran must address the nuclear issue “head-on.” Earlier this week, the U.S. distributed a draft U.N. Security Council resolution barring any nation in violation of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (such as Iran) from enriching uranium for any purpose, either energy or weapons.
The United Arab Emirates is lobbying the U.S. Congress to approve a transfer of nuclear materials to Abu Dhabi. Indeed, an opinion piece in the U.A.E. newspaper Al-Ittihad suggests that a bilateral agreement between the two countries on peaceful nuclear cooperation will be approved. Last week the crown prince, Sheik Mohammaed bin Zayed al-Nayhan visited President Barack Obama to discuss cooperation on energy and security, among other topics. Last year, both countries signed a preliminary agreement paving the way for nuclear exports. The U.A.E. has pledged to maintain transparency in any nuclear program. But there are fears that a nuclear program in the U.A.E., while peaceful, could set in motion proliferation throughout the Middle East. Many states are uneasy over Iran’s continued defiance toward the West regarding its nuclear program. However, the United States, Britain, France and Russia—all nuclear powers—it could win some trade opportunities and big business. France has also been talking with the U.A.E. on a nuclear energy cooperation agreement, and Saudi Arabia has signed a preliminary agreement with the United States on nuclear technology.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is denying reports that he did not want the Lockerbie bomber to die in prison and that he made a deal with the Libyan government for his release. On Tuesday, a junior defense minister was quoted as saying that the British government wasn’t “seeking his death” in British custody. Prime Minister Brown is now being accused of “double-dealing” over the bomber, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, by telling the United States they wanted him to stay in prison while signaling to Libya that they wanted him released. Critics are charging a deal for oil, one of Libya’s largest exports, might have provided motivation for the release. “There was no conspiracy, no cover-up, no double-dealing, no deal on oil, no attempt to influence Scottish ministers, no private assurances by me to Colonel (Muammar) Gaddafi,” said Brown. Al-Megrahi was greeted to a hero’s welcome in Libya on August 20, despite a letter written to the Libyan leader from the prime minster asking for a low-key reception.
A judge in Chile issued arrest warrants Tuesday for 129 former security officials for human rights abuses during the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. The soldiers and police officers were agents of National Intelligence Directorate (DINA), Pinochet’s secret police organization during his 1973-90 regime. This group of suspects is the largest so far to face arrest warrants, and many of the accused have never faced charges before. The indictments are related to Operations Condor, Colombo, and Conferencia, DINA’s efforts in the 1970s to purge opponents of General Pinochet during Chile’s so-called “dirty war.” Hundreds of Chilean activists were killed or disappeared during these operations. Judge Victor Montiglio, who issued the warrants, said that “basically we are investigating anyone who was in the barracks, in so far as they participated in, sought to participate in or had knowledge of deprivation of victims’ freedoms. We are much closer to the end.” Pinochet’s regime has been held accountable for many human rights abuses, including an estimated 3,000 deaths or disappearances. Human rights activists laud the latest round of indictments, but prosecutions of the regime long after democracy has been fully established in Chile has been quite controversial. The arrests are expected to begin on Wednesday.
The current instability in Yemen’s northern and southern regions has created a vacuum that has allowed Al Qaeda to organize and threaten not only the Yemeni government but neighboring Saudi Arabia. Yemen has recently intensified its three-week-old offensive against the Shiite rebels, which consist mainly of minority Zaidis, also known as Houthis. (Zaidis are a minority in southern Yemen, which is largely Sunni, but constitue a majority in the north.) The rebels aim to overthrow the government and restore Shiite Islamic rule. The crisis has worsened within the last week, with the United Nations saying that up to 150,000 people may be fleeing the fighting in and around the city of Sa’ada. A UN spokesman said a “humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Sa’ada…the situation is deteriorating by the day.” The fighting has given Al Qaeda an opening to regroup in Yemen, according to analysts. In January, the Saudi and Yemeni branches of Al Qaeda joined together to form “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.” The presence of the terrorist group in Yemen will allow them to put pressure on the Saudi government, according to Middle East experts.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said that “the key and decisive moment” for Middle East peace is here,even as Israeli officials continue to resist calls for a halt to settlement activity in the West Bank. A meeting between Abbas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and U.S. President Barack Obama is schedule to take place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly later this month. Abbas has said that a settlement freeze in the West Bank is a necessary precondition for talks to resume, but an Israeli minister, Yossi Peled, said there would be no halt. “I heard the prime minister say with my own ears that he has no intention of freezing construction in the settlements or in Jerusalem,” he told the Jerusalem Post. Abbas was also quoted as saying he would press ahead with Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections in January even without a reconciliation with Hamas, which currently controls the Gaza Strip. Hamas officials have said an election without a “unity accord” would be unacceptable and that Hamas would not allow ballots to be held in Gaza without one.
The European Union will allow more refugees from conflict zones and poor nations to settle in its countries, says European Commission Vice-President Jacques Barrot, who is responsible for freedom, security, and justice. Barrot stated that “today the Commission has taken an important step which demonstrates our concrete solidarity with third countries hosting large numbers of refugees.” EU countries currently resettle about 6.7 percent of the world’s refugees, which according to the Commission “contrasts sharply with the numbers taken in by many other countries in the industrialised world, particularly the U.S., Canada and Australia.” The proposed Joint EU Resettlement Programme would strengthen coordination and cooperation among EU member states and promote broader resettlement of refugees. “The European Commission has a duty to remind member states of their obligations,” Barrot explained. “We will not solve this crisis by reacting in a xenophobic manner.” The initiative aims to decrease the number of illegal immigrants in the region by providing more opportunities for refugees to enter legally. Under the program, EU nations would decide together each year which refugee groups should be given highest priority for resettlement, and a joint fund would support these efforts. Currently ten member states accept refugees annually while others do so on an ad hoc basis.
Read it for yourself, and don’t dismiss it, as most western commentators have. The Pan-European Security Treaty, proposed by Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, is worth a read. Doubtless it can be modified, improved and ambiguities removed. But it makes a lot of sense, and it would be another step forwards to what the last Soviet president, Mikhail Gorbachev, urged—the creation of a “European house”, that contains Russia as one of its inhabitants. Only those “with one foot in the Cold War,” to quote President Barack Obama on the eve of his recent visit to Moscow, should find it objectionable.
Indeed, play down Bolshevism and the Cold War. The moment communism, the Cold War and all its baggage were over, Russia itself quickly revived. This was, after all, a period of only 70 years in Russia’s long history—which began even before Prince Vladimir, its ruler, accepted Orthodox Christianity for himself and for his people a thousand years ago. It is 500 years since Byzantium Orthodoxy handed over the torch of the Church’s leadership to Russia. When Constantine in 326 AD moved the throne of the Roman emperor to Constantinople and took his newly adopted Church with him, the city became the headquarters of the Christian faith and its patriarch. When it was overrun by the Ottomans in 1453, the only place for both the spirit and the headquarters of the Church to move to was Orthodox Russia and the Slavic lands. The “legitimate Church” was now the heritage of Russia. And 1453 was also the end of the Roman Empire.
The consequences for Europe have been immense. The cushion of Orthodoxy in Russia saved Europe from the full impact of the eastern nomads and Islam. A Muslim Russia would have meant a very different history for the West.
In 1767, the Empress Catherine categorically stated that “Russia is a European state.” In his ambitious study of Europe, Norman Davies wrote that “Fears of the ‘Bear’ did not prevent the growth of a general consensus regarding Russia’s membership in Europe. This was greatly strengthened in the nineteenth century by Russia’s role in the defeat of Napoleon, and by the magnificent flowering of Russian culture in the age of Tolstoy, Tchaikovsky, and Chekov.” Indeed it is clear that when it comes to the proficiency in all the arts, Russia has no peer in Europe.
Even in the worst of times under Soviet totalitarian rule many individual Russians, not only Gorbachev, in their hearts wanted a European identity—not difficult to believe among those who were conscious of the natural links of their country’s artistic talents and their (repressed) Church. The end of the communist dictatorship enabled Russians and many of the other peoples of the former Soviet Union to greet, in Vaclav Havel’s phrase, the “Return to Europe.” Read the rest of this entry »
It’s winter in Europe: time for snow, St. Nicholas, and the annual Russia-Ukraine dispute over natural gas supplies. On Wednesday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned his counterparts in Ukraine not to try to modify a 10-year gas supply contract between the two countries. It’s a warning not to take lightly—last January, Russia turned off the taps to the Ukrainian pipeline network over what they said was a billion dollar debt owed to them by Kiev and claimed the Ukrainians were siphoning off gas bound for countries further west in Europe. (For their part, Kiev blamed the missing gas on their leaky, outdated pipeline network rather than theft).
Russia has the second-largest known reserves of natural gas in the world; Turkmenistan is thought to have the third-largest reserves, and other Central Asian states have significant stocks of their own. Europe would like to tap into these gas fields with pipelines that avoid Russian territory. Moscow, meanwhile, is eager to lock these Central Asian supplies into new pipeline networks that they would build and operate, knowing that control over a big chunk of Europe’s energy supplies provides a huge amount of political leverage.
Read it for yourself, and don’t dismiss it, as most western commentators have. The Pan-European Security Treaty, proposed by Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, is worth a read. Doubtless it can be modified, improved and ambiguities removed. But it makes a lot of sense, and it would be another step forwards to what the last Soviet president, Mikhail Gorbachev, urged—the creation of a “European house”, that contains Russia as one of its inhabitants. Only those “with one foot in the Cold War,” to quote President Barack Obama on the eve of his recent visit to Moscow, should find it objectionable.