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THE INDEX — December 4, 2009

December 4th, 2009 marykate Posted in Afghanistan, Arab World, Barack Obama, Conflict, Diplomacy, Economy, Europe, Finance, International Law, Israel, Middle East, Military, NATO, Negotiation, Nuclear Weapons, Palestine, Russia, THE INDEX, U.S. Foreign Policy, War Comments

The U.S. military on Friday began its first major offensive against the Taliban since President Obama announced the deployment of an additional 30,000 soldiers to Afghanistan on Tuesday. Operation Cobra’s Anger comprises 900 American Marines and British soldiers from Task Force Helmand, and 150 Afghan soldiers. In concert with the combat assault, a small contingent was dropped behind Taliban lines in northern Now Zad Valley—once a bustling market city of 30,000 that after years of fighting is a ghost town, home only to poppy fields—to disrupt Taliban communications and supply lines. Marine spokesman Maj. William Pelletier reported from Camp Leatherneck in Helmand: “Right now, the enemy is confused and disorganized. They’re fighting, but not too effectively.” Pelletier also reported that the coalition uncovered several arms caches and at least 400 pounds of explosives. Earlier on Friday, after a summit in Brussels, 25 NATO countries pledged 7,000 additional soldiers to Afghanistan, which will bring the combined U.S.-NATO forces to about 150,000 by this summer. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told delegates at NATO headquarters that the coming year would “see a new momentum in this mission.” Most of the additional U.S. soldiers will be deployed to the south and east, against the insurgency’s strongholds, whereas most of the additional NATO soldiers will be deployed to the north and west to defend against Taliban incursions and to begin political and economic development. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will host a special summit on Afghanistan for all troop-contributing nations in London on January 28.

Russia and the United States failed to reach a new agreement on nuclear arms as the midnight expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) looms, but both sides say they want a new weapons reduction treaty to come into force as soon as possible. START, which is set to expire at midnight on December 4, is an arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia signed by Mikhail Gorbachev and George H. W. Bush in 1991. It has led to the removal and destruction of about 80 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons and has also provided an important framework for verification, which will cease to formally exist when the treaty expires. But the Kremlin issued a statement on behalf of the U.S. and Russian presidents on Friday, emphasizing their “commitment, as a matter of principle, to continue to work together in the spirit of the START treaty following its expiration, as well as our firm intention to ensure that a new treaty on strategic arms enter into force at the earliest possible date.” The Russian Foreign Ministry said “intensive work” on a new treaty is ongoing and that “preparations for the signing are coming to a close,” but details of a new agreement have not been finalized. Washington has expressed its determination to establish a new agreement by the end of the year, and hopes to agree on an arms reduction treaty by the time President Obama travels to Oslo next week to accept his Nobel Peace Prize.

Settlers in the West Bank rejected a personal plea from Israel’s prime minister to respect his 10-month construction freeze, vowing to defy the law and resist any attempts to enforce it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a moratorium on building new settlements in the West Bank last week, which settler leaders responded to with a civil disobedience campaign that has blocked inspectors from entering the settlements. “You have the right to demonstrate. You have the right to protest,” Netanyahu told settler leaders in a meeting on Thursday, according to a statement released by his office. “You have the right to express an opinion, but it’s unacceptable not to respect a decision that was taken by law.” He did, however, promise that building work could resume after the 10 month-freeze was lifted. The temporary and limited halt to settlement construction is designed to draw Palestinian negotiators to resume peace talks. In his meeting with the settlers, Netanyahu “stressed that this is the optimum decision for Israel at this time, if you look at the overall strategic reality,” said Mark Regev, a spokesman for the prime minister. “This is our confidence-building measure. Now it is in the Palestinians’ court. We have moved in an unprecedented manner, and it is time for them to respond.” The Palestinians contend that the new building restrictions do not go far enough, particularly because they only apply to construction in the West Bank and not to East Jerusalem, as well. But the settlers contend that the moratorium represents “the beginning of the end,” and they have scheduled a mass demonstration for next week in Jerusalem.

The dollar strengthened on Friday against both the yen and the euro after U.S. labor statistics reported that U.S. job losses in November were less than 10 percent of the expected figure. Gold, in turn, which strengthened to a record high on Thursday after rallying for weeks against expectations for a falling dollar, weakened slightly on Friday along with other metals. The dollar appears to be recovering from hitting a 14-year low against the Japanese yen last week, and is likely to continue strengthening as the United States further emerges from the recession, with job growth—and the recent less-than-expected job losses a small but encouraging sign—viewed as a principal indicator of future economic gains. Similarly, the Canadian dollar rose after Canada reported a jobs increase of 79,000, far more than expected. The stock markets responded positively to the labor markets. Upon the opening bell on Wall Street on Friday, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite, and the Dow Jones all hit intra-day highs for the year. Overseas, London’s FTSE 100 rose 1 percent and the FTSE Eurofirst 300 added 1.7 percent. UBS’ director of floor operations at the NYSE, Art Cashin, said of the U.S. employment statistics, “Santa Clause may have come early with this number.”

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THE INDEX — December 2, 2009

December 2nd, 2009 marykate Posted in Afghanistan, Arab World, Asia, Barack Obama, Diplomacy, Economy, Europe, Finance, Hamid Karzai, International Law, Iran, Kosovo, Middle East, NATO, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, THE INDEX, Terrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy, UN, United Kingdon, War Comments

President Barack Obama’s long-awaited shift in strategy on the war in Afghanistan has received praise from European leaders, but getting more troops from them to help support the additional 30,000 U.S. forces now planned for deployment may prove more difficult. While British Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged 500 more troops in Afghanistan, and NATO promised at least 5,000 more, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in an interview that he would send “not a single solider more.” However, the newspaper quoted an unnamed senior French official saying President Sarkozy may reconsider. Germany, which has 4,400 troops in Afghanistan, said it would be ready to do more police training but was reluctant to commit more troops. The deployment will bring the total number of American troops to 98,000, while Britain will now have about 10,000 soldiers in the region. U.S. officials have said they’re looking for an additional 5,000 to 7,000 troops from allies. The Taliban released a statement following President Obama’s announcement, saying the extra troops “will provoke stronger resistance and fighting. [The U.S. forces] will withdraw shamefully.”

In an apparent attempt to crack down on inflation and its small but growing free market economy, North Korea revalued its currency and froze all cash transactions. The move, the first in 17 years by North Korea, caused confusion within the country, according to reports. The official exchange rate between the old won and the new is now 100 to one. Some analysts see the burgeoning free market economy threatening Kim Jong-Il’s hold on power and that the aim of the revaluation is to redistribute wealth throughout the country—a single family will reportedly be allowed to hold no more than 150,000 new won (roughly $1100) in hard currency. According to reports, all cash enterprises and services have been suspended by the government. North Korea took tentative steps to liberalize its economy after a famine in the late 1990s. Since then, the black market economy has grown and illicit currency exchanges have profited. The move seems intended to wipe clean the fortunes of these underground entrepreneurs and reestablish a more “perfect” socialist state.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) began public hearings on the legality of Kosovo’s independence from Serbia, which Pristina declared in February, 2008. Kosovo, which had been under a provisional UN administration since 1999, has been recognized as independent by 63 countries (including the United States) since its unilateral secession, and is expected to argue that it was never part of Serbia. “Kosovo’s independence is irreversible and that will remain the case, not only for the sake of Kosovo, but also for the sake of sustainable regional peace and security,” Kosovo’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Skender Hyensi said on Tuesday. “We are certain the court will confirm the will of Kosovo’s people to be independent and free.” Serbia, however, has argued that Kosovo’s secession was a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and has claimed the move was ethnically motivated and thus illegal under international law. The UN General Assembly had asked the ICJ, which is the United Nations’ highest judicial body, for an advisory ruling on the matter at the request of Serbia. The ICJ will hear testimony from 29 countries over the next nine days before issuing its ruling. Though it will not be binding, the decision is expected to set a precedent for other secessionist movements around the world, such as in Chechnya and Basque Country in Spain.

In another jab at the United States and its Western allies, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran would enrich its uranium itself rather than send it to Russia and France under a UN-brokered deal. The agreement was supposed to calm fears over Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear weapon by offering Tehran the option of letting foreign countries (which already possess enrichment technology) process Iranian uranium. This would theoretically prevent Iran from developing its own indigenous capacity for enrichment, and would ensure that the uranium provided to Iran’s civil nuclear program would fall short of levels required for weapons production. But Iran has repeatedly been backing down from the UN deal. “The Iranian nation will produce 20 percent enriched uranium and anything it needs (itself),” President Ahmadinejad said. He also called the recent International Atomic Energy Agency censure of Iran’s secret construction of a second enrichment plant “illegal.” “The Zionist regime [Israel] and its backer [the United States] cannot do a damn thing to stop Iran’s nuclear work,” he said.

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THE INDEX — November 16, 2009

November 16th, 2009 marykate Posted in Afghanistan, Arab World, Australia, Barack Obama, China, Diplomacy, International Law, Iran, Israel, Nuclear Weapons, Palestine, THE INDEX, Torture, UN, United Kingdon, human rights Comments

U.S. officials unveiled a new detention facility at Bagram air field in Afghanistan, promising greater openness and better living conditions for inmates. The existing facility at Bagram has been shrouded in secrecy, garnering criticism for human rights abuses after two of its inmates died last year following interrogations. The prison, which holds its roughly 700 detainees without charges, will close by the end of the year, and the U.S. military plans to move its inmates to the new $60 million housing complex. “The new facility…provides improved detainee living conditions…as well as vocational, technical, and other programs to assist with peaceful reintegration of released detainees,” Brig. Gen. Mark Martins, head of the detention facilities at Bagram, told international journalists on a tour of the new facility, tentatively named Detention Facility in Parwan, on Sunday. “You are here because transparency certainly benefits the effort.” Human rights groups have praised some aspects of the new facility, including the separation of hard-core insurgents from those who may be reconciled with society and the move to open administrative hearings, in which detainees are assessed for their readiness to be released, to outsiders as well as to the detainees themselves. But many critics still call for President Barack Obama to further reform the U.S.’ Afghan detention policies. “All detainees in Afghanistan are entitled to minimum protections, including the right to legal counsel, and to be able to challenge the legal and factual basis for the detention before an independent and impartial tribunal,” rights groups Amnesty International, Human Rights First, and Human Rights Watch said in a joint statement. “The U.S. reforms still fall short of providing detainees with those rights.” Transfers of prisoners to the new facility are expected to begin within the next two weeks.

A new report from the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reveals that Iran’s Fordo nuclear enrichment facility was constructed in 2002, seven years before Iran revealed the existence of the plant this September and five years before Iran stated it had begun the project. The disparity further heightens the international community’s concerns about Iran’s intention to conceal illicit nuclear enrichment activity. The report adds that Iran is “is fully cooperating” but that the IAEA needs “further clarification” about the intentions of the Fordo plant, which could be operational in 18 months. Iran has yet to respond to the UN plan, led by the United States, which would allow the export of Iran’s uranium to Russia and France for enrichment into medical isotopes and then return the fuel to Iran. But the IAEA’s report hints at concern that even if Iran agreed, it might still hold some amount of its supply rather than reveal it for export. After a one-hour meeting in Singapore with President Barack Obama, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday, “we are not completely happy about [Iran's] pace [in responding to the UN proposal]. If something does not work, there are other means to move the process further.” On Monday, President Obama will meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao of China, which wields a UN Security Council veto power and has been reluctant to impose sanctions on Iran. They will discuss, among other things, increasing pressure on Iran’s nuclear compliance. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said that the Obama administration has imposed an internal deadline of the end of 2009 for Iran to cooperate. Mohamed ElBaradei, the IAEA director general (set to retire at the end of the month), will officially present the report, which leaked to the press on Monday, on November 26 in Vienna.

Israeli officials on Monday continued to denounce the Palestinian Authority’s intention to unilaterally declare statehood and seek formal recognition from the United Nations. Senior Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, announced the gambit on Saturday and, on Sunday—the twenty-first anniversary of Yasser Arafat’s declaration of statehood—President Mahmoud Abbas added, “God willing, we will soon have an independent state with its capital in [East] Jerusalem” under 1967 borders. Many observers consider the proposal a political tactic to force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to reengage peace negotiations, stalled since the Gaza war last December, and restrict further settlement construction in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. An Al Jazeera reporter in Ramallah relayed, “What [Palestinians] want [now] is something a lot more concrete. They know it won’t immediately result in the withdrawal of Israeli occupation troops from their territory, but they want the Israelis to stand in front of an international collective will that says this is what needs to be done in order for peace to be realized.” The statements incited a furor of criticisms from the Israeli government. Netanyahu declared, “Any unilateral action will undo the framework of past accords and lead to unilateral actions from Israel.” Transport Minister Yisrael Katz later added, “Let them not threaten us with unilateral measures; we can also take unilateral measures such as annexing the settlement blocs.” Without U.S. support, the Palestinian proposal is not likely to be approved by the requisite two-thirds of the UN General Assembly.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull offered a landmark apology to hundreds of thousands of “forgotten Australians” and former child migrants who were abused or neglected in state facilities. In an emotional ceremony in the capital of Canberra, Rudd apologized for what he called “an ugly chapter” in Australia’s history. “The truth is this is an ugly story, and its ugliness must be told without fear or favor if we are to confront fully the demons of our past,” he said to a crowd at Parliament House. “We are sorry. Sorry for the tragedy—the absolute tragedy—of childhoods lost,” he continued. Between 1930 and 1970, approximately 500,000 children were abused or neglected in orphanages or homes in the Australian institutional care system. Of these, many were part of the Child Migrants Program, a scheme designed to bring “good white stock” to Commonwealth countries like Australia and Canada. Under the program, the United Kingdom sent poor children to these countries promising a “better life.” But, in many cases, families were never notified that their children had been sent away, the children were falsely informed that they were orphans, and, once they arrived, they faced extreme cruelty and neglect while in state care. “You were failed by the system of care,” Turnbull added, choking back tears. “Today we acknowledge that, already feeling alone, abandoned and left without love, many of you were beaten and abused, physically, sexually, mentally—treated like objects not people—leaving you to feel of even less worth…For far too long, your stories were not believed when they should have been, and for that too we apologize, and we are sorry.” Roughly 7,000 survivors of the program currently live in Australia, including Laurie Humphreys, who attended Rudd’s apology. “The word ’sorry’ doesn’t mean much. You can’t say sorry for a lost childhood,” the former child migrant worker told Time magazine. “But you can acknowledge it, and that’s what I needed.” U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is expected to offer a similar apology sometime in the new year.

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THE INDEX — November 2, 2009

November 2nd, 2009 marykate Posted in Abdullah Abdullah, Afghanistan, Africa, Arab World, Barack Obama, Climate change, Conflict, Diplomacy, Europe, European Union, Hamid Karzai, Humanitarian intervention, International Law, Middle East, Negotiation, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, THE INDEX, U.S. Foreign Policy, UN, War, Weapons, human rights Comments

Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission on Monday declared incumbent Hamid Karzai “the elected President of Afghanistan” for a second five-year term. The announcement comes one day after rival Abdullah Abdullah announced his withdrawal from a runoff planned for November 7. The second round balloting was canceled Monday morning after Abdullah withdrew. The number two finisher in the initial balloting on August 20 said he did not consider the Independent Election Commission to have been sufficiently reformed that a fair runoff could be guranteed, free from the widespread fraud that marked the first election round. The United States, Britain, and the United Nations each promptly issued congratulatory statements to President Karzai as the elected head of state, and others are expected to follow. Analysts believe, however, that American officials will continue to lead an intense diplomatic effort to reconcile the two candidates’ supporters and unify the country, perhaps through Karzai offering Abdullah a senior office in his administration. In a surprise visit to Kabul Monday, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon exhorted Karzai to “move swiftly to form a government that is able to command the support of both the Afghan people and the international community.” Speaking at his home after the press conference, Dr. Abdullah rejected any suggestion of joining Karzai’s administration—he had formerly served as Karzai’s Foreign Minister but left after a bitter falling out—and said of his withdrawal, “I did it with a lot of pain, but at the same time with a lot of hope for the future.  Because this will not be the end of anything, this will be a new beginning.” President Obama is scheduled to lead two National Security Council meetings at the White House on Afghanistan this week as he further considers his administration’s policy and further troop commitments. These deliberations had been clouded by uncertainty over the Afghan administration that would emerge from the election process.

The Pakistani military announced Monday it has captured the towns of Kaniguram, Cheena, and Makeen, strategic Taliban strongholds in the South Waziristan region of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The military, which began its current offensive on October 17, has reportedly cleared the captured areas of all insurgents, mines, and improvised explosive devices. The Pakistani government is now offering rewards totaling $5 million for information leading to the capture of Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, and 17 other Taliban leaders. Meanwhile, bombings continued to shake Pakistan on Monday, largely in response to the ongoing military offensive, as one bomb near military headquarters in Rawalpindi killed 30 people, including military officers and some civilians, in a crowded pedestrian area; and. Additionally, two suicide bombings at a security checkpoint in Lahore, Pakistan’s cultural center, killed a policeman and injured 25 civilians. A series of ten bombings have killed more than 300 Pakistani civilians since mid-October.

North Korea again pressed the United States to open direct bilateral talks, warning that it was prepared to “go its own way” with its nuclear program should Washington remain unresponsive. “It’s time for the United States to make a decision,” an unidentified spokesman for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry told the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Monday. “We have made it clear that we are ready to take part in multilateral talks, including the six-party talks, depending on the results of talks with the United States . . . If the United States is not ready to sit down face-to-face with us for talks, we cannot but go on our own way,” he added. The statement follows a rare meeting between Ri Gun, North Korea’s deputy nuclear envoy, and Sung Kim, the American special envoy on the North’s nuclear disarmament, in New York and San Diego last week. After months of defiance, North Korea has recently signaled a willingness to return to disarmament negotiations. Last month, it reaffirmed its invitation for Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. special representative for North Korea policy, to visit Pyongyang. Leader Kim Jong-Il also told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao last month that his country would consider a return to multilateral negotiations, which stalled in April after Pyongyang quit the forum and later conducted nuclear and long-range missile tests. But the North maintained that any return to the six-party framework; which brings together envoys from North Korea, the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea; depended on the progress of bilateral talks with Washington. to amend “hostile relations.” North Korea’s spokesman reiterated this on Monday, saying “the direct parties, which are the North and the United States, must first sit down and find a rational solution . . . [If the two countries] end the hostile relationship and build trust, there will be a meaningful step toward the denuclearizing of the Korean peninsula.” But whether this will be enough to convince the Obama administration to meet one-on-one is unclear; Washington has said it will only agree to direct talks as part of a resumption of the broader, six-party dialogue.

The UN suspended its support for army units operating in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, accusing the Congolese army of deliberately killing more than 60 civilians this year. After a tour of the region, UN peackeeping chief Alain Le Roy said the army had “clearly targeted” civilians, and that the United Nations mission in DR Congo (MONUC) would “immediately suspend its logistical and operational support to the army units implicated” in civilian killings between May and December. Congolese government spokesman Lambert Mende objected to the decision, saying the investigation was still ongoing. “We are surprised that the United Nations has announced sanctions against these units even before the conclusion of their investigation,” he said on Monday, warning that a withdrawal of support could destabilize the army. MONUC has backed the Congolese army in its military operations against Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels since January, and has provided logistical assistance in the east since a joint Rwandan and Congolese military operation was launched against against the rebel group in March. But the operation has come under widespread criticism for human rights abuses. According to human rights groups, more than 1,000 civilians have been killed, more than 7,000 women and girls raped, and more than 900,000 people forced to flee their homes since operations began in January.

Delegates from 180 countries are gathered in Barcelona today for five days of negotiations toward drafting a successor treaty to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol in advance of the symbolic Copenhagen Conference to be held December 7-18. The Barcelona preparatory round is aimed at reconciling an apparent impasse over the contentious issue of technology financing to developing nations. Strains were evident last week when the European Commission agreed that the cost of helping developing nations to reduce carbon emissions by 2020 would total about $150 billion, but talks became stalemated over the question of which nations would pay which proportion of those costs. Central and Eastern European nations, for example, which depend heavily on coal-fired power generation, warned they could not afford to pay in proportion to their emissions. Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, said that a full legally-binding treaty is unlikely at Copenhagen, but he noted that he was still convinced a political deal was possible. Danish Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard noted wryly, “Failure is the only thing we can’t afford.”


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THE INDEX — October 28, 2009

October 28th, 2009 marykate Posted in Abdullah Abdullah, Afghanistan, Africa, Arab World, Barack Obama, Conflict, Diplomacy, Elections, Genocide, Guinea, Hamid Karzai, Honduras, International Law, Latin America, Middle East, Palestine, THE INDEX, U.S. Foreign Policy, UN, War, Women's Rights, human rights Comments

As Taliban militants raided a house used by UN personnel in the Afghan capital, reports were circulating that the Obama administration plans to secure 10 major population centers in Afghanistan as part of its shift in strategy in the eight-year war. President Barack Obama will make his final decision “in the coming weeks,” according to a White House spokesman, which could entail more troops in the country’s largest cities, but not necessarily more soldiers overall. October has become the deadliest month for U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. With just a month before the presidential runoff between President Hamid Karzai and challenger Abdullah Abdullah, the Taliban again attacked Western officials, this time a guest house where about 20 UN election workers were staying. Six were killed. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying three militants wearing suicide vests carried out the assault. “This is our first attack,” a Taliban spokesman told the Associated Press. In a related story, The New York Times reported that Ahmed Wali Karzai, the brother of President Karzai, has been paid by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for most of the past eight years for services such as fielding recruits for a paramilitary force operated by the CIA. Ahmed Karzai denied any involvement.

The systematic killing and raping of protesters in Guinea in September was “premeditated and pre-planned at the highest level,” the U.S.-based human rights organization Human Rights Watch reported on Tuesday. Last month, thousands of demonstrators gathered at a large sports stadium in Conakry, Guinea, to protest the expected presidential candidacy of junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara. Activists say 157 people were killed and over 1,000 were injured when soldiers opened fire on the crowd, though government officials put the toll at 57. Following an in-depth investigation, Human Rights Watch concluded that the killings, as well as widespread sexual violence that included the brutal public raping of dozens of women, were organized and committed by the elite Presidential Guard, known commonly as “red berets.” The group also found evidence that the armed forces attempted to hide evidence of these acts by seizing the bodies and burying them in mass graves. “There is no way the government can continue to imply the deaths were somehow accidental,” said Georgette Gagnon, Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “This was clearly a premeditated attempt to silence opposition voices.” Human Rights Watch reiterated its call for an international United Nations-led inquiry into the violence, with which Captain Camara has promised to cooperate. Workers in Guinea are now holding a nationwide strike to commemorate the victims of the violence.

Ex-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, on trial for war crimes in the Hague, is being accused of directing an ethnic cleansing campaign to rid his state of Muslims. In its opening remarks, the prosecution portrayed Karadzic as a man “who harnessed the forces of nationalism, hatred and fear to implement his vision of an ethnically separated Bosnia” and had direct contact with those carrying out the killings. Karadzic is facing two charges of genocide and nine charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). He is refusing to cooperate with the trial, however, saying he needs nine months to prepare his defense. But though Karadzic was not present at the trial’s opening, his chilling words recorded on phone taps during the conflict were entered into evidence by the prosecution. “They have to know that there are 20,000 armed Serbs around Sarajevo…it will be a black cauldron where 300,000 Muslims will die,” read the transcripts. “They will disappear. That people will disappear from the face of the earth.” Karadzic was indicted in 1995 for crimes committed during the 1992-95 war, which left more than 100,000 people dead. Among other incidents, he is accused of masterminding the killing of more than 7,000 Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica in July 1995. Officials are worried that Karadzic is attempting to draw out the proceedings, much like former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic did during his trial, which ended without a verdict after four years. Milosevic died in custody.

Senior U.S. officials will travel to Honduras Wednesday to try to salvage negotiations between ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and interim President Roberto Micheletti, which collapsed just days ago over the issue of Zelaya’s return to power. The Micheletti administration had said they were open to talks and would consider withdrawing from the presidency—but only if Zelaya, who was ousted in a coup in June, gave up his claim to the nation’s highest office. Zelaya flatly rejected this, saying “it would be unseemly, indecent for the Honduran people if I was to negotiate on the position which they elected me to.” Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Tom Shannon; his deputy, Craig Kelly; and Dan Restrepo, the White House’s special assistant for Western Hemisphere affairs; were expected to meet with each leader individually in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa to try to facilitate a solution. “It is important that it be a Honduran solution,” a spokeswoman for the State Department told the Wall Street Journal on the eve of the talks. “Everything is on the table.”

Hamas has instructed Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to refrain from voting in the upcoming January elections. President Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the rival Fatah movement (which governs the West Bank), has called for parliamentary and presidential voting, and is reportedly attempting to unite rival Palestinian factions against Hamas, the militant Islamic group that rules Gaza. The Interior Ministry in Gaza said it “rejects the holding of elections in the Gaza Strip because they were announced by someone who has no right to make such an announcement and because it came without national agreement.” According to a report in the Arabic newspaper al-Ayyam, Abbas wants all Palestinian factions and some independents to appear in one electoral list to show unity against Hamas. The latest dispute between the two rival factions threatens to further sour relations, which have been testy since Hamas routed Fatah from Gaza in 2007. Egypt has made attempts at reconciling the two parties via a pact that would have set June 28, 2010, as the next date for elections. Though Abbas has called for a January ballot, he may consider delaying the elections. In the past, Abbas has said he would agree to a summer vote if Hamas agreed to reconcile, and Hamas has also hinted that it would participate then. But with tensions rising, some Hamas leaders have countered that the group may hold a separate election of its own in Gaza this coming January.

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Shaun Randol: Debating the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine

October 14th, 2009 marykate Posted in Humanitarian intervention, International Law, UN Comments

Adopted in 2005 at the United Nations’ World Summit, the doctrine of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) represents a remarkable evolutionary step for the international state system. R2P, which was pushed by then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in the wake of the Rwandan genocide, seeks to ensure that another Rwanda (or Cambodia or Holocaust) will never happen again.

It argues that states have the responsibility to protect their populations from mass atrocities, namely genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. And, more controversially, where states are unable or unwilling to provide this security, the onus of protection falls to the larger international community. This element of a transfer of a responsibility—from individual states to the broader global community of states—marks an radical step in world order, a further movement away from state-centric anarchy and ad hoc coalition-building toward collective action.

R2P has its detractors, however. Defenders of the supremacy of state sovereignty warn that R2P undermines the status quo, Westphalian system. Others caution that R2P is no more than an excuse for imperially minded big states to intervene in the affairs of smaller states. This latter argument has much traction in the case of the UN’s mission in Haiti. Yet, as Jonas Claes argues in a recent R2P debate on The Mantle, “in general, those fragile states most likely to end up on the receiving end of R2P-inspired military operations seem very supportive of R2P.”

Practically speaking, implementing R2P presents a challenge as well. It is difficult to motivate states into action that requires blood and treasure where they see little national interest. And still others, namely the United States, have reservations about putting their own soldiers under the command of other governments or the United Nations. “The political will to use military action to halt crimes on the ground has been markedly absent,” notes Savita Pawnday, the Office and Outreach Coordinator for the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, in a provocative essay. “Thus, the problem of the fragile, weak or non-existent state is not applicable of R2P, but rather, its operationalization and the need for a wide range of measures that take into account the different political realities of conflicts.”

And despite its adoption by the UN General Assembly four years ago, R2P has barely been used as a means to protect vulnerable populations. The continuing tragedies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and to some extent in Gaza, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka—where a lack of international intervention allows ongoing bloodletting—are cases in point.

Still, R2P remains an emerging norm with many pitfalls, both operationally and philosophically. Despite this, in September of this year, the UNGA adopted resolution A/RES/63/308, which further supports R2P as a norm and seeks ways to move it forward.

Questions surrounding R2P remain. The Mantle, a new online forum for critique and debate, recently launched its inaugural roundtable discussion, “Whose Responsibility to Protect?” This first roundtable centers on issues underpinning R2P. Five young professionals, including moderator Marie Mainil, steeped in R2P debate, grapple with the complexities of the doctrine, such as the responsibility of protection in “failed states,” corralling the political will—or lack thereof—to implement R2P, and more.

I invite you to view their thought-provoking discussion on The Mantle and to join in on the debate as well.

Shaun Randol is an associate fellow at the World Policy Institute and the founder and editor of The Mantle (www.mantlethought.org).

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THE INDEX — September 16, 2009

September 16th, 2009 marykate Posted in Afghanistan, Africa, Arab World, Barack Obama, Diplomacy, Economy, European Union, International Law, Iran, Israel, Japan, Justice, Middle East, Negotiation, Nuclear Weapons, Palestine, Security Council, Somalia, THE INDEX, UN, human rights Comments

One in three votes cast for Afghanistan’s incumbent President Hamid Karzai in last month’s election was fraudulent, say EU election observers. According to EU Election Monitoring Commission, about 1.1 million votes in favor of Karzai, as well as 300,000 cast for his main rival Abdullah Abdullah, met Afghanistan’s criteria for electoral fraud. The findings were released as official election results now show Karzai winning with 54.6 percent of the vote. But if the suspect ballots to be excluded, Karzai’s share would fall to 47.2 percent–short of the 50 percent needed for a win and triggering a run-off election. Karzai furiously condemned the Commission’s claims as “partial, irresponsible and in contradiction with Afghanistan’s constitution.” Instead of publicizing their findings, Karzai continued, the monitors should be referring them to Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) and the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC). The EU team accused the IEC, which is chaired by a pro-Karzai appointee, of abetting the fraud, saying that it has ignored its own rules on identifying and eliminating suspect votes. The ECC ordered a recount of about 10 percent of the votes, as well as an audit of election staff.

A long-awaited UN probe found both Israel and Hamas committed war crimes in last year’s Gaza conflict. The four-person investigative team, led by South African war crimes prosecutor Richard Goldstone, reported that both sides violated international human rights and humanitarian law during the three-week operation in the Gaza Strip last December and January. The report condemned Palestinian militant groups for their repeated mortar attacks targeting Israeli citizens. But the focus was primarily on Israel’s use of “disproportionate force” against densely populated Gaza in Operation Cast Lead. In addition, the report said that Israel’s blockade of Gaza amounted to a collective punishment of civilians, and suggested that Palestinians had been deprive of substinence, employment, and movement–which could constitute a crime against humanity. The group recommended that the Security Council refer the case to the International Criminal Court (ICC) if independent, “good-faith” proceedings do not occur within six months. Israel denounced the report, rejecting it as one-sided and anti-Israeli. President Shimon Peres said that in practice, the report’s findings “[grant] legitimacy to terrorism, premeditated shooting and killing while ignoring the duty and the right of a state to defend itself.”

Somali rebels have called for all Muslims to join the fight against the U.N.-backed government after a U.S. helicopter raid killed one of the region’s most wanted al Qaeda suspects. The raid on Monday was an unusual one for the United States, which had previously targeted militants using long-range missiles rather than helicopter-borne troops. The operation killed Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, who was wanted for a 2002 truck bombing that killed 15 people at an Israeli-owned beach hotel in Mombasa, Kenya and was suspected of trying to shoot down an Israeli airliner the same year. Following the attack, a commander for al Shabab insurgents in Somalia called for Muslims to fight the weak transitional government as well as the African Union, which has troops there. The last American strike in Somalia was in May 2008, when an al-Shabab military leader and at least 10 others were killed. There were also reports quoting witnesses as saying that the troops involved in the Monday operation were wearing uniforms with French insignia, but the French military has strongly denied any involvement.

Yukio Hatoyama, the newly elected Japanese prime minister, took office Wednesday alongside a defense minister who, some reports are suggesting, will pull Japanese troops from the NATO-led military campaign in Afghanistan. An article in the Times of London suggests that the appointment of Toshimi Kitazawa, who is a strong opponent of the country’s military support for the United States, makes it increasingly likely that the Hatoyama-led government will withdraw forces from Afghanistan early next year. Japan’s Maritime Defense Forces only deployed a supply ship and a destroyer to assist in providing fuel and water to American and British naval ships in the Indian Ocean. The minimal Japanese assistance is one of only a handful of overseas military operations where the country has been engaged since World War II, largely due to its pacifist constitution. The new government is taking power after pledging to make domestic demand the engine of growth (rather than exports) and promising to pull Japan from the worst recession since World War II.

Following its submission of a brief proposal on Wednesday, Iran scheduled a meeting with the P5+1 for negotiations October 1. A spokesman to EU policy chief Javier Solana confirms that the P5+1—which includes the U.S., U.K., China, Russia, France, and Germany—requested the meeting, which was then arranged with Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili. Iran wants to discuss stabilization efforts in Afghanistan, ways to combat illicit drug trafficking, and “alleviating concerns over the nuclear issue,” said a spokesman for Iran’s ministry of foreign affairs, though it defends its right to maintain a civilian nuclear program. The United States has expressed cautious optimism about the potential of the discussions, but Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asserted that talks with Iran must address the nuclear issue “head-on.” Earlier this week, the U.S. distributed a draft U.N. Security Council resolution barring any nation in violation of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (such as Iran) from enriching uranium for any purpose, either energy or weapons.

The United Arab Emirates is lobbying the U.S. Congress to approve a transfer of nuclear materials to Abu Dhabi.  Indeed, an opinion piece in the U.A.E. newspaper Al-Ittihad suggests that a bilateral agreement between the two countries on peaceful nuclear cooperation will be approved. Last week the crown prince, Sheik Mohammaed bin Zayed al-Nayhan visited President Barack Obama to discuss cooperation on energy and security, among other topics. Last year, both countries signed a preliminary agreement paving the way for nuclear exports. The U.A.E. has pledged to maintain transparency in any nuclear program. But there are fears that a nuclear program in the U.A.E., while peaceful, could set in motion proliferation throughout the Middle East. Many states are uneasy over Iran’s continued defiance toward the West regarding its nuclear program. However, the United States, Britain, France and Russia—all nuclear powers—it could win some trade opportunities and big business. France has also been talking with the U.A.E. on a nuclear energy cooperation agreement, and Saudi Arabia has signed a preliminary agreement with the United States on nuclear technology.

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THE BIG QUESTION — September 16, 2009

September 16th, 2009 marykate Posted in Arab World, International Law, Israel, Palestine, THE BIG QUESTION Comments

THE BIG QUESTION is a new multimedia project on the World Policy Blog. Every week, our editorial team will investigate a pressing global question, provide context and analysis, and feature answers from internationally renowned experts. Today, THE BIG QUESTION looks at Israel’s continued building of settlements in the West Bank.

(For best viewing, click on the permalink)

Formatted and written by our editorial assistants: Max Currier, Mary Kate Nevin, and Josh Sanburn

The Big Question

Experts The Lede Timeline Timeline (continued)The Players

The Players The Players The Players What Could Happen? What Could Happen? What Could Happen?

Further reading:

“The Big Question: What are Israeli settlements, and why are they coming under pressure?” The Independent

“Netanyahu risks U.S. anger by building settlements” The New York Times, September 9, 2009.

“Resolve of West Bank settlers may have limits” The New York Times, September 14, 2009.

Economist Debates: Honest broker

John Zogby, James Zogby, and Amjad Atallah, “American Perceptions of an Arab-Israeli Peace” Event at the New America Foundation, May 18, 2009.

David Makovsky, “No Expansion vs. Freeze: Obama’s Dilemma over Israeli Settlements” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch #1564, August 7, 2009.

Dr. Meachem Klein, “A New Approach to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict” Remarks at the Foundation for Middle East Peace, April 1, 2009.

Saeb Erakat, “The New Israeli Government, Palestinian Reconciliation, and Prospects for Peace after the Gaza War” Remarks at the Brookings Institution, March 31, 2009.

Paul Salem, “Fatah Congress Strengthens Abu Mazen and Rejuvenates the Movement” Web Commentary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 17, 2009.

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THE INDEX — September 14, 2009

September 14th, 2009 max Posted in Arab World, Barack Obama, China, Economy, Free Trade, International Law, Russia, THE INDEX, Trade, Uncategorized, Venezuela Comments

Days after President Obama introduced new tariffs on Chinese tires, China’s commerce ministry took steps towards imposing tariffs on U.S. automotive and poultry exports. China launched anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into the two industries, citing complaints from Chinese manufacturers that the U.S.-made products entered China’s markets with “unfair competition.” Officials say the probe is not intended as retaliation for the new U.S. policy, which was widely condemned in China as a “grave act of trade protectionism,” said Chen Deming, China’s minister of commerce. (The U.S. tariff will tack an additional 35 percent surcharge on Chinese-made tires, starting September 26.) Beijing has requested World Trade Organization (WTO)-sanctioned consultations over the U.S. tariffs, noting that they are in contravention of both WTO rules and commitments made at the April G-20 summit. In the United States, some analysts have called the tariffs an overtly political effort to appease union workers and secure their support for domestic policies, especially health care. Both China and the United States, however, stand to lose if a trade row escalates—the Chinese economy relies heavily on exports to the United States, while Beijing holds trillions in Treasury bonds and dollar-denominated assets. Amidst widespread warnings that protectionist sanctions could hinder a rebound from the economic crisis, fears of a full-blown trade war pushed markets lower around the world on Monday.

The United Nations’ highest court will hear final arguments from Argentina over claims that a Uruguayan paper mill is polluting a shared river. The mill, which sits on the Uruguay River, is causing “irreversible” environmental damage and discharging pollutants into the water and the air, according to Argentinean lawyers arguing before the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Argentinean lawyers contend the mill releases harmful effluents into densely populated area whose inhabitants use the river for fishing, leisure, and tourism, while Uruguayan officials claim the mill is a model of eco-responsibility. Argentina filed an application with the ICJ in May 2006, accusing Uruguay of unilaterally authorizing construction of two mills on the river and breaching a 1975 bilateral treaty, which said all decisions regarding the river must be made through consultations and agreement between both countries. The ICJ dismissed a bid by Argentina in July 2006 to halt construction of both mills, but plans for the second mill have now been abandoned.

At least 14 women and children were killed and dozens more were injured in southern Pakistan as a charity food giveaway became a stampede. According to officials, hundreds of women had assembled in the southern port city of Karachi to collect free flour and rice from a local businessman observing the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. However, the distribution quickly devolved into chaos, with most of the deaths caused by suffocation. Crowding and congestion made it impossible for rescue workers to adequately respond. President Asif Ali Zardari expressed “shock and grief” over the deaths and ordered an immediate judicial probe to determine responsibility. Prices for staple goods have risen sharply in the region and the government has not been able to provide relief to the growing numbers of people stricken with poverty. During Ramadan, Islam’s most sacred month, many wealthy business leaders in the community give alms, distributing free foodstuffs or cooked foods to the poor.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that his country has received $2.2 billion in credit from Russia to purchase nearly 100 tanks and a series of anti-aircraft rocket systems. The weapons include 92 Soviet-era T-72 main battle tanks and 300-millimeter Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems. After meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Chavez noted that the weapons were needed “to modernize our fleet of armored vehicles,” but also said the purchases were not directed at any particular country. Tensions between Venezuela and its neighbor, Colombia, have been heightened of late, due to Colombia’s agreement with U.S. forces to allow access to several of domestic bases. “With these rockets it is going to be very difficult for [the United States] to come and bomb us,” Chavez said. Venezuela also finalized a deal with a group of Russian companies to invest $20 billion to develop the Junin 6 block of crude reserves in the Orinoco Belt, estimated as one of the largest sand oil deposits in the world.

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THE INDEX — September 2, 2009

September 2nd, 2009 marykate Posted in Arab World, Chile, Crime, Diplomacy, Europe, European Union, Immigration, International Law, Israel, Justice, Latin America, Libya, Middle East, Migration, Refugees, THE INDEX, United Kingdon, Yemen, human rights Comments

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is denying reports that he did not want the Lockerbie bomber to die in prison and that he made a deal with the Libyan government for his release. On Tuesday, a junior defense minister was quoted as saying that the British government wasn’t “seeking his death” in British custody. Prime Minister Brown is now being accused of “double-dealing” over the bomber, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, by telling the United States they wanted him to stay in prison while signaling to Libya that they wanted him released. Critics are charging a deal for oil, one of Libya’s largest exports, might have provided motivation for the release. “There was no conspiracy, no cover-up, no double-dealing, no deal on oil, no attempt to influence Scottish ministers, no private assurances by me to Colonel (Muammar) Gaddafi,” said Brown. Al-Megrahi was greeted to a hero’s welcome in Libya on August 20, despite a letter written to the Libyan leader from the prime minster asking for a low-key reception.

A judge in Chile issued arrest warrants Tuesday for 129 former security officials for human rights abuses during the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. The soldiers and police officers were agents of National Intelligence Directorate (DINA), Pinochet’s secret police organization during his 1973-90 regime. This group of suspects is the largest so far to face arrest warrants, and many of the accused have never faced charges before. The indictments are related to Operations Condor, Colombo, and Conferencia, DINA’s efforts in the 1970s to purge opponents of General Pinochet during Chile’s so-called “dirty war.” Hundreds of Chilean activists were killed or disappeared during these operations. Judge Victor Montiglio, who issued the warrants, said that “basically we are investigating anyone who was in the barracks, in so far as they participated in, sought to participate in or had knowledge of deprivation of victims’ freedoms. We are much closer to the end.” Pinochet’s regime has been held accountable for many human rights abuses, including an estimated 3,000 deaths or disappearances. Human rights activists laud the latest round of indictments, but prosecutions of the regime long after democracy has been fully established in Chile has been quite controversial. The arrests are expected to begin on Wednesday.

The current instability in Yemen’s northern and southern regions has created a vacuum that has allowed Al Qaeda to organize and threaten not only the Yemeni government but neighboring Saudi Arabia. Yemen has recently intensified its three-week-old offensive against the Shiite rebels, which consist mainly of minority Zaidis, also known as Houthis. (Zaidis are a minority in southern Yemen, which is largely Sunni, but constitue a majority in the north.) The rebels aim to overthrow the government and restore Shiite Islamic rule. The crisis has worsened within the last week, with the United Nations saying that up to 150,000 people may be fleeing the fighting in and around the city of Sa’ada. A UN spokesman said a “humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Sa’ada…the situation is deteriorating by the day.” The fighting has given Al Qaeda an opening to regroup in Yemen, according to analysts. In January, the Saudi and Yemeni branches of Al Qaeda joined together to form “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.” The presence of the terrorist group in Yemen will allow them to put pressure on the Saudi government, according to Middle East experts.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said that “the key and decisive moment” for Middle East peace is here, even as Israeli officials continue to resist calls for a halt to settlement activity in the West Bank. A meeting between Abbas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and U.S. President Barack Obama is schedule to take place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly later this month. Abbas has said that a settlement freeze in the West Bank is a necessary precondition for talks to resume, but an Israeli minister, Yossi Peled, said there would be no halt. “I heard the prime minister say with my own ears that he has no intention of freezing construction in the settlements or in Jerusalem,” he told the Jerusalem Post. Abbas was also quoted as saying he would press ahead with Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections in January even without a reconciliation with Hamas, which currently controls the Gaza Strip. Hamas officials have said an election without a “unity accord” would be unacceptable and that Hamas would not allow ballots to be held in Gaza without one.

The European Union will allow more refugees from conflict zones and poor nations to settle in its countries, says European Commission Vice-President Jacques Barrot, who is responsible for freedom, security, and justice. Barrot stated that “today the Commission has taken an important step which demonstrates our concrete solidarity with third countries hosting large numbers of refugees.” EU countries currently resettle about 6.7 percent of the world’s refugees, which according to the Commission “contrasts sharply with the numbers taken in by many other countries in the industrialised world, particularly the U.S., Canada and Australia.” The proposed Joint EU Resettlement Programme would strengthen coordination and cooperation among EU member states and promote broader resettlement of refugees. “The European Commission has a duty to remind member states of their obligations,” Barrot explained. “We will not solve this crisis by reacting in a xenophobic manner.” The initiative aims to decrease the number of illegal immigrants in the region by providing more opportunities for refugees to enter legally. Under the program, EU nations would decide together each year which refugee groups should be given highest priority for resettlement, and a joint fund would support these efforts. Currently ten member states accept refugees annually while others do so on an ad hoc basis.

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