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Iranian Press TV reported on Sunday Iran’s intention to construct ten additional uranium enrichment facilities. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has requested Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization generate 20,000 megawatts of electricity for domestic use through 500,000 additional centrifuges by 2020. Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi explained that the decision was a direct response to the recent criticisms from the United Nations, and especially the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Germany). “We had no intention of building many facilities like the Natanz site,” Salehi said, “but apparently the West doesn’t want to understand Iran’s peaceful message.” In Paris, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner labeled Iran’s decision “a bit childish.” Also on Sunday, more than 200 members of the Iranian parliament signed a letter urging Ahmadinejad to restrict the IAEA’s presence in Iran, and some called for Iran’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Withdrawal would eliminate the West’s already limited inspection capability in Iran, but in so doing would signal malicious intent—beyond Iran’s stated peaceful intent for civilian energy—that might prompt harsher sanctions and perhaps even preemptive military action from Israel or others. As to Iran’s peaceful nuclear power generators, Russian sources told Reuters on Monday that the Bushehr plant—which Iran has contracted to Russia for an estimated $1 billion—will likely begin generating electricity in March 2010, coinciding with the Russian New Year.

Results from the Honduran presidential election, in which voters have appeared to reject President Manuel Zelaya, are putting the United States and Brazil at odds over the future of the Latin American nation. Zelaya, who was ousted from the presidency in a military coup in June, apparently lost to opponent Porfirio Lobo, who according to provisional election results won about 56 percent of the vote. The United States praised the vote; a U.S. State Department spokesman said the “the Honduran people took a necessary and important step forward.” But Brazil, which has hosted Zelaya in its embassy in Tegucigalpa since mid-September, said it would not recognize the results because of the military coup. “Brazil will maintain its position because it’s not possible to accept a coup,” said Brazilian president Luiz Inacio da Silva. Zelaya has called the election a “fraud” and tried to get Hondurans to boycott the vote.

The government of Dubai announced on Monday that it will not guarantee the debt of the investment firm Dubai World. The Director General of Dubai’s finance department, Abdulrahman al-Saleh, warned that creditors are responsible for their own lending decisions. “Creditors need to take part of the responsibility for their decision to lend to the companies. They think Dubai World is part of the government, which is not correct.” The federal United Arab Emirates (UAE) pledged cautiously on Monday to lend to Dubai banks, hoping to allay a crisis of confidence similar to, if on a far smaller scale, that which crippled the global economy last fall. “We will look at Dubai’s commitments and approach them on a case-by-case basis,” an anonymous UAE official told the press. “It does not mean that Abu Dhabi will underwrite all of their debts.” The Dubai finance department last week requested a six-month standstill on all Dubai World debts, including that of its property development subsidiary, Nakheel, totaling some $59 billion. Dubai World, a major impetus for Dubai’s stellar economic growth, had invested in lavish real estate projects, including artificial islands in the Persian Gulf and properties in Manhattan and Las Vegas. The standstill request surprised global investors who believed, and were told by Dubai officials, that the emirate would face no financial troubles in the near future. Mr. Saleh cautioned that global markets were overreacting to the news of Dubai’s standstill request and that, while firms will take losses in the near future, they will emerge stronger as the government restructures the businesses.

Trade chiefs from over 150 countries gathered in Geneva as the World Trade Organization (WTO) opened its first ministerial conference in four years. The conference, which commenced on Monday, was arranged as “a platform for ministers to review the functioning” of the multilateral trade body, said Director-General Pascal Lamy. Though it is not a negotiating forum, Lamy still urged the ministers to speed up their progress on the eight-year-old Doha Development Round, the WTO’s currently stalled round of trade negotiations. “The best way of strengthening the [international trade] system is concluding this round,” said Lamy, as world leaders set a new 2010 target to conclude the process. “Now we need action, concrete and practical action, to close the remaining gaps.” Developing countries echoed his call for urgency; the Cairns group, an alliance of 19 nations that account for more than 25 percent of the world’s agricultural exports, expressed its dismay at the lack of progress on Doha. The group of 33 developing countries (dubbed the G-33) also called for action, noting that it would stand firm to preserve developing-country interests as the Doha round proceeds, particularly on the contentious special safeguard mechanism (SSM)—the right to retain protective tariffs on agriculture should imports surge or prices drastically fall—that led to last year’s breakdown in talks. The conference (which will conclude on Wednesday) is set to address other trade-related issues as well, such as improving the resolution of trade disputes, preventing protectionism, enlarging membership, and cooperating with other international organizations.

As Taliban militants raided a house used by UN personnel in the Afghan capital, reports were circulating that the Obama administration plans to secure 10 major population centers in Afghanistan as part of its shift in strategy in the eight-year war. President Barack Obama will make his final decision “in the coming weeks,” according to a White House spokesman, which could entail more troops in the country’s largest cities, but not necessarily more soldiers overall. October has become the deadliest month for U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. With just a month before the presidential runoff between President Hamid Karzai and challenger Abdullah Abdullah, the Taliban again attacked Western officials, this time a guest house where about 20 UN election workers were staying. Six were killed. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying three militants wearing suicide vests carried out the assault. “This is our first attack,” a Taliban spokesman told the Associated Press. In a related story, The New York Times reported that Ahmed Wali Karzai, the brother of President Karzai, has been paid by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for most of the past eight years for services such as fielding recruits for a paramilitary force operated by the CIA. Ahmed Karzai denied any involvement.

The systematic killing and raping of protesters in Guinea in September was “premeditated and pre-planned at the highest level,” the U.S.-based human rights organization Human Rights Watch reported on Tuesday. Last month, thousands of demonstrators gathered at a large sports stadium in Conakry, Guinea, to protest the expected presidential candidacy of junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara. Activists say 157 people were killed and over 1,000 were injured when soldiers opened fire on the crowd, though government officials put the toll at 57. Following an in-depth investigation, Human Rights Watch concluded that the killings, as well as widespread sexual violence that included the brutal public raping of dozens of women, were organized and committed by the elite Presidential Guard, known commonly as “red berets.” The group also found evidence that the armed forces attempted to hide evidence of these acts by seizing the bodies and burying them in mass graves. “There is no way the government can continue to imply the deaths were somehow accidental,” said Georgette Gagnon, Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “This was clearly a premeditated attempt to silence opposition voices.” Human Rights Watch reiterated its call for an international United Nations-led inquiry into the violence, with which Captain Camara has promised to cooperate. Workers in Guinea are now holding a nationwide strike to commemorate the victims of the violence.

Ex-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, on trial for war crimes in the Hague, is being accused of directing an ethnic cleansing campaign to rid his state of Muslims. In its opening remarks, the prosecution portrayed Karadzic as a man “who harnessed the forces of nationalism, hatred and fear to implement his vision of an ethnically separated Bosnia” and had direct contact with those carrying out the killings. Karadzic is facing two charges of genocide and nine charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). He is refusing to cooperate with the trial, however, saying he needs nine months to prepare his defense. But though Karadzic was not present at the trial’s opening, his chilling words recorded on phone taps during the conflict were entered into evidence by the prosecution. “They have to know that there are 20,000 armed Serbs around Sarajevo…it will be a black cauldron where 300,000 Muslims will die,” read the transcripts. “They will disappear. That people will disappear from the face of the earth.” Karadzic was indicted in 1995 for crimes committed during the 1992-95 war, which left more than 100,000 people dead. Among other incidents, he is accused of masterminding the killing of more than 7,000 Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica in July 1995. Officials are worried that Karadzic is attempting to draw out the proceedings, much like former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic did during his trial, which ended without a verdict after four years. Milosevic died in custody.

Senior U.S. officials will travel to Honduras Wednesday to try to salvage negotiations between ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and interim President Roberto Micheletti, which collapsed just days ago over the issue of Zelaya’s return to power. The Micheletti administration had said they were open to talks and would consider withdrawing from the presidency—but only if Zelaya, who was ousted in a coup in June, gave up his claim to the nation’s highest office. Zelaya flatly rejected this, saying “it would be unseemly, indecent for the Honduran people if I was to negotiate on the position which they elected me to.” Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Tom Shannon; his deputy, Craig Kelly; and Dan Restrepo, the White House’s special assistant for Western Hemisphere affairs; were expected to meet with each leader individually in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa to try to facilitate a solution. “It is important that it be a Honduran solution,” a spokeswoman for the State Department told the Wall Street Journal on the eve of the talks. “Everything is on the table.”

Hamas has instructed Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to refrain from voting in the upcoming January elections. President Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the rival Fatah movement (which governs the West Bank), has called for parliamentary and presidential voting, and is reportedly attempting to unite rival Palestinian factions against Hamas, the militant Islamic group that rules Gaza. The Interior Ministry in Gaza said it “rejects the holding of elections in the Gaza Strip because they were announced by someone who has no right to make such an announcement and because it came without national agreement.” According to a report in the Arabic newspaper al-Ayyam, Abbas wants all Palestinian factions and some independents to appear in one electoral list to show unity against Hamas. The latest dispute between the two rival factions threatens to further sour relations, which have been testy since Hamas routed Fatah from Gaza in 2007. Egypt has made attempts at reconciling the two parties via a pact that would have set June 28, 2010, as the next date for elections. Though Abbas has called for a January ballot, he may consider delaying the elections. In the past, Abbas has said he would agree to a summer vote if Hamas agreed to reconcile, and Hamas has also hinted that it would participate then. But with tensions rising, some Hamas leaders have countered that the group may hold a separate election of its own in Gaza this coming January.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is denying reports that he did not want the Lockerbie bomber to die in prison and that he made a deal with the Libyan government for his release. On Tuesday, a junior defense minister was quoted as saying that the British government wasn’t “seeking his death” in British custody. Prime Minister Brown is now being accused of “double-dealing” over the bomber, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, by telling the United States they wanted him to stay in prison while signaling to Libya that they wanted him released. Critics are charging a deal for oil, one of Libya’s largest exports, might have provided motivation for the release. “There was no conspiracy, no cover-up, no double-dealing, no deal on oil, no attempt to influence Scottish ministers, no private assurances by me to Colonel (Muammar) Gaddafi,” said Brown. Al-Megrahi was greeted to a hero’s welcome in Libya on August 20, despite a letter written to the Libyan leader from the prime minster asking for a low-key reception.

A judge in Chile issued arrest warrants Tuesday for 129 former security officials for human rights abuses during the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. The soldiers and police officers were agents of National Intelligence Directorate (DINA), Pinochet’s secret police organization during his 1973-90 regime. This group of suspects is the largest so far to face arrest warrants, and many of the accused have never faced charges before. The indictments are related to Operations Condor, Colombo, and Conferencia, DINA’s efforts in the 1970s to purge opponents of General Pinochet during Chile’s so-called “dirty war.” Hundreds of Chilean activists were killed or disappeared during these operations. Judge Victor Montiglio, who issued the warrants, said that “basically we are investigating anyone who was in the barracks, in so far as they participated in, sought to participate in or had knowledge of deprivation of victims’ freedoms. We are much closer to the end.” Pinochet’s regime has been held accountable for many human rights abuses, including an estimated 3,000 deaths or disappearances. Human rights activists laud the latest round of indictments, but prosecutions of the regime long after democracy has been fully established in Chile has been quite controversial. The arrests are expected to begin on Wednesday.

The current instability in Yemen’s northern and southern regions has created a vacuum that has allowed Al Qaeda to organize and threaten not only the Yemeni government but neighboring Saudi Arabia. Yemen has recently intensified its three-week-old offensive against the Shiite rebels, which consist mainly of minority Zaidis, also known as Houthis. (Zaidis are a minority in southern Yemen, which is largely Sunni, but constitue a majority in the north.) The rebels aim to overthrow the government and restore Shiite Islamic rule. The crisis has worsened within the last week, with the United Nations saying that up to 150,000 people may be fleeing the fighting in and around the city of Sa’ada. A UN spokesman said a “humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Sa’ada…the situation is deteriorating by the day.” The fighting has given Al Qaeda an opening to regroup in Yemen, according to analysts. In January, the Saudi and Yemeni branches of Al Qaeda joined together to form “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.” The presence of the terrorist group in Yemen will allow them to put pressure on the Saudi government, according to Middle East experts.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said that “the key and decisive moment” for Middle East peace is here, even as Israeli officials continue to resist calls for a halt to settlement activity in the West Bank. A meeting between Abbas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and U.S. President Barack Obama is schedule to take place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly later this month. Abbas has said that a settlement freeze in the West Bank is a necessary precondition for talks to resume, but an Israeli minister, Yossi Peled, said there would be no halt. “I heard the prime minister say with my own ears that he has no intention of freezing construction in the settlements or in Jerusalem,” he told the Jerusalem Post. Abbas was also quoted as saying he would press ahead with Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections in January even without a reconciliation with Hamas, which currently controls the Gaza Strip. Hamas officials have said an election without a “unity accord” would be unacceptable and that Hamas would not allow ballots to be held in Gaza without one.

The European Union will allow more refugees from conflict zones and poor nations to settle in its countries, says European Commission Vice-President Jacques Barrot, who is responsible for freedom, security, and justice. Barrot stated that “today the Commission has taken an important step which demonstrates our concrete solidarity with third countries hosting large numbers of refugees.” EU countries currently resettle about 6.7 percent of the world’s refugees, which according to the Commission “contrasts sharply with the numbers taken in by many other countries in the industrialised world, particularly the U.S., Canada and Australia.” The proposed Joint EU Resettlement Programme would strengthen coordination and cooperation among EU member states and promote broader resettlement of refugees. “The European Commission has a duty to remind member states of their obligations,” Barrot explained. “We will not solve this crisis by reacting in a xenophobic manner.” The initiative aims to decrease the number of illegal immigrants in the region by providing more opportunities for refugees to enter legally. Under the program, EU nations would decide together each year which refugee groups should be given highest priority for resettlement, and a joint fund would support these efforts. Currently ten member states accept refugees annually while others do so on an ad hoc basis.

U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Patrick Duffy resumed his post in Caracas last month after being expelled by President Hugo Chávez in 2008. But he better not unpack his bags just yet. Rising tensions between the two countries are growing again, making a fresh rupture possible.

There are two flash points threatening to bring promises of better relations tumbling down.

One is Colombia; the other is Chávez’s moves against the country’s press. Both pose challenges to U.S. president Barack Obama’s policy of seeking a less confrontational accommodation with Chávez.

Colombia, for now, is drawing most of the attention. Chávez has yet to explain how anti-tank arms acquired by the Venezuelan Armed Forces in 1988 ended up in the hands of Colombia’s largest guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Colombia said last week that three of the weapons had been confiscated last year when a FARC camp had been overrun.

Colombian officials have repeatedly accused Venezuela of providing assistance to FARC, which is classified by both the U.S. and European community as a terrorist organization. Until now, they lacked a “smoking gun,” directly linking Venezuela to the rebel group.

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This past month, two resource-rich countries saw political protests turn deadly as the people tried to reign in the autocratic dictates of an incumbent government. One country was, of course, Iran—where every day it seems the government strangles a little more life out of the people’s protests.

With 24/7 news coverage of that disastrous election, you might be forgiven for not having heard about what happened in Peru, where for a change, the people won.

Beginning in 2008, Peru’s president, Alan Garcia, issued a series of executive decrees to open up 210,000 square miles of the Amazon region, including some land legally protected, to foreign oil, gas, logging, and agribusiness investment.

Garcia aimed to develop a multi-billion dollar industry to aid Peru’s growth (not in itself a bad thing) and saw the fertile and resource-rich Amazon as a golden opportunity, simply too good to waste. The president oversaw the signings of dozens of contracts with a wide variety of foreign officials and companies.

In retrospect, it’s easy to see why Garcia underestimated the vociferousness of his opposition. The Amazonian region is home to only 330,000 indigenous people (roughly 1 percent of Peru’s population) arrayed in some 60 tribes. In general, these Amazonians live in remote areas, speak different dialects, are much poorer than the national average, and lack political or social cohesion.

But this time around, the indigenous people were organized and determined. They had spent years getting ready for Garcia’s assault on their native land. Decades of negative experiences with oil extraction companies had forced them to come together, and to plan ahead. Past protests had not been taken seriously by Peruvian elites and legislative leaders, who merely ignored their claims or temporarily suspended action until the furor died down. Then, as always, they returned to business as usual. Read the rest of this entry »

If it succeeds, the universally condemned Honduran military coup could send a disastrous signal to Latin America and beyond that the long slog of democratization can be interrupted on a moment’s impatience.

Deposed President Manuel Zelaya’s past performance leaves much to be desired, but so do the nation’s institutions, which need democratic reform, not military mentorship. Honduras represents an archetypal “Tier-II” category of democracy. As a nation, it has underperformed in forming a broad democratic alliance, and often bent the rules to build the rule of law.

It needs time, patience, and nurturing—even when democratically elected leaders govern undemocratically.

The unpopular, populist President Zelaya built a narrow coalition, alienating the business community while attempting to overturn single-term limits on the executive office. Zelaya had damaged his democratic credentials by failing to respect judicial independence in disagreeing with the Supreme Court decision to strike down his planned plebiscite that sought to allow him to run for president again. The vote (which would have amended the constitution) was planned for this past Sunday—though it is not clear he intended it to be binding.

Things heated up even further when the chief of the army, Gen. Romeo Vasquez, refused to allow the army to provide logistical support for the referendum. Zelaya promptly fired him, and the Supreme Court jumped back into the fray, demanding he be reinstated. In the end, the military, legislative leaders, and the president failed to work out compromises, even with some mediation from the U.S. ambassador, to prevent the breakdown of democracy.

The new ruling authoritarian coalition claims to be using a constitutional solution to the crisis by protecting the new president, Roberto Micheletti, who was previously head of the legislature. Indeed, many Hondurans have argued that a coup did not actually occur, since the legislature and Supreme Court had declared Zelaya’s referendum and various other acts to have been unconstitutional. In response, the court played its own constitutional card, by ordering the armed forces to reestablish a “democracy.” Thus, Micheletti’s constant public refrain: “democracia, democracia, democracia.”

Barring the chorus of claims from both sides over what is “constitutional” and what is not, it is important to note that, most likely, this was a classic middle-class coup—a Brumarian moment of relief for the privileged, bolstered by constitutional distortions to correct constitutional distortions. Zelaya had won office on a conservative, law-and-order ticket but increasingly had adopted the populist tendencies of many of his fellow Latin American leaders, alienating broad swathes of the legislature and the business community.

Perhaps the new regime (if it remains in power) may actually keep its word and reconfigure itself democratically, as it claims. Occasionally, when democratic leaders govern undemocratically, a new authoritarian alliance can put things right. But, in practice, it is usually the exception to the rule and a pretext for other aims—all too often, it is might that makes right. Worse, coups signal that the military is to be the arbiter. But in Honduras, the “man on horseback,” as the military is depicted, often governs in nineteenth-century, caudillo (”strongman”) fashion, making order by giving orders.

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