worldpolicy.org

It was quite clear by the time President Obama got to the end of his State of the Union speech last night that it was very much—the state of America, not the state of the world. Barely 10 minutes—roughly 900 of 7,500 words—were devoted in his hour-long address to global issues, a passing nod, an odd rhetorical flourish, a vague threat to America’s enemies—North Korea and Iran, al-Qaeda and the Taliban (not even by name, in the latter’s case). Controlling global warming? Good. Withdrawal from Iraq? Leaving behind a democratic government? Well, we shall see in the wake of the coming elections.

Among the few accomplishments he cited? Thirty thousand more troops to Afghanistan and a big multilateral conference opening in London today to prop up the government of President Hamid Karzai. But within hours, this latter president undercut Obama’s whole message, suggesting it would be five to ten years before his nation could stand on its own against its many enemies, foreign and domestic. No route home soon for those 30,000 additional men and women apparently.

So what was on the agenda of the American president, and what was not?

Certainly not the Middle East. Despite his stem-winding speech in Cairo nearly a year ago, and the appointment of a master envoy, George Mitchell, Israelis and Palestinians are as far apart as ever. “If we had anticipated some of [the] political problems on both sides earlier, we might not have raised expectations as high,” Obama admitted to Time’s Joe Klein last week.

A quick laughline over global warming. (“I know that there are those who disagree with the overwhelming scientific evidence on climate change….”) But no mention of the buzz-saw he walked into in Copenhagen which all but collapsed, leaving environmentalists puzzled at best, bitter at least.

Global trade? A pledge to double U.S. exports in the next five years—and move toward some Doha accord. Hardly a message many of America’s trading partners would like to hear. And especially those who were somehow left out of the message entirely:

“And that’s why we’ll continue to shape a Doha trade agreement that opens global markets, and why we will strengthen our trade relations in Asia and with key partners like South Korea and Panama and Colombia.”  What happened to China? India? Brazil? Clearly straw men, purely passing cautionary tales: “China is not waiting to revamp its economy. Germany is not waiting. India is not waiting.” Look out America, the world is out there breathing down our backs, waiting to steal our first-place position:

“These nations aren’t playing for second place. They’re putting more emphasis on math and science. They’re rebuilding their infrastructure. They’re making serious investments in clean energy because they want those jobs. Well, I do not accept second place for the United States of America. (Applause.)”

Nuclear disarmament? “The United States and Russia are completing negotiations on the farthest-reaching arms control treaty in nearly two decades.” When? No deadline. When they’re finished.

And Iran?  “As Iran’s leaders continue to ignore their obligations, there should be no doubt: They, too, will face growing consequences. That is a promise. (Applause.)” Which consequences, when and who will accompany us? Empty rhetoric does not go a very long way in Tehran or Qom.

And before his peroration reaffirming America’s “ideals and values,” there was a final summary of his global agenda:

“That’s the leadership that we are providing—engagement that advances the common security and prosperity of all people. We’re working through the G20 to sustain a lasting global recovery. [The only suggestion in the speech that our economic melt-down, which we helped touch off, is a global problem needing global solutions.] We’re working with Muslim communities around the world to promote science and education and innovation. We have gone from a bystander to a leader in the fight against climate change. We’re helping developing countries to feed themselves, and continuing the fight against HIV/AIDS. And we are launching a new initiative that will give us the capacity to respond faster and more effectively to bioterrorism or an infectious disease—a plan that will counter threats at home and strengthen public health abroad. As we have for over 60 years, America takes these actions because our destiny is connected to those beyond our shores.”

Last week, I was asked on the PBS broadcast WorldFocus to sum up the president’s first year in international relations. He has, I replied, substantially improved our global image. We are, in many parts of the world, no longer a pariah nation. But concrete results, real accomplishments, changing the course of history or even peoples’ lives? Not much yet. As the anchor Martin Savidge observed, great progress in the most deeply divided regions, particularly the Middle East, is only rarely achieved without the undivided focus and attention of the president of the United States—a president who is now more than ever distracted by a packed domestic agenda.

Where the president has weighed in, it is only in the form of a quick fly-through in Copenhagen, a one-off speech in Cairo, a brief stopover in the chairman’s chair at a UN disarmament session. Then he’s gone. Whoosh. Another item on his daily agenda ticked off and then on to his next stop.

The world, led by Americans who are globally engaged, is still waiting for results, and focus. He has the innate talent, the prayers of the world, all the good will imaginable. Now, in his second year, the debut, as he so quite rightly observed, of a bright new decade, it is time to buckle down and deliver on at least a few of his brightest promises.

David A. Andelman is the editor of World Policy Journal and The World Policy Blog. A veteran domestic and foreign correspondent and editor of The New York Times, CBS News, and most recently Forbes.com, he is the author of A Shattered Peace: Versailles 1919 and the Price We Pay Today.

The U.S. military on Friday began its first major offensive against the Taliban since President Obama announced the deployment of an additional 30,000 soldiers to Afghanistan on Tuesday. Operation Cobra’s Anger comprises 900 American Marines and British soldiers from Task Force Helmand, and 150 Afghan soldiers. In concert with the combat assault, a small contingent was dropped behind Taliban lines in northern Now Zad Valley—once a bustling market city of 30,000 that after years of fighting is a ghost town, home only to poppy fields—to disrupt Taliban communications and supply lines. Marine spokesman Maj. William Pelletier reported from Camp Leatherneck in Helmand: “Right now, the enemy is confused and disorganized. They’re fighting, but not too effectively.” Pelletier also reported that the coalition uncovered several arms caches and at least 400 pounds of explosives. Earlier on Friday, after a summit in Brussels, 25 NATO countries pledged 7,000 additional soldiers to Afghanistan, which will bring the combined U.S.-NATO forces to about 150,000 by this summer. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told delegates at NATO headquarters that the coming year would “see a new momentum in this mission.” Most of the additional U.S. soldiers will be deployed to the south and east, against the insurgency’s strongholds, whereas most of the additional NATO soldiers will be deployed to the north and west to defend against Taliban incursions and to begin political and economic development. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will host a special summit on Afghanistan for all troop-contributing nations in London on January 28.

Russia and the United States failed to reach a new agreement on nuclear arms as the midnight expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) looms, but both sides say they want a new weapons reduction treaty to come into force as soon as possible. START, which is set to expire at midnight on December 4, is an arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia signed by Mikhail Gorbachev and George H. W. Bush in 1991. It has led to the removal and destruction of about 80 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons and has also provided an important framework for verification, which will cease to formally exist when the treaty expires. But the Kremlin issued a statement on behalf of the U.S. and Russian presidents on Friday, emphasizing their “commitment, as a matter of principle, to continue to work together in the spirit of the START treaty following its expiration, as well as our firm intention to ensure that a new treaty on strategic arms enter into force at the earliest possible date.” The Russian Foreign Ministry said “intensive work” on a new treaty is ongoing and that “preparations for the signing are coming to a close,” but details of a new agreement have not been finalized. Washington has expressed its determination to establish a new agreement by the end of the year, and hopes to agree on an arms reduction treaty by the time President Obama travels to Oslo next week to accept his Nobel Peace Prize.

Settlers in the West Bank rejected a personal plea from Israel’s prime minister to respect his 10-month construction freeze, vowing to defy the law and resist any attempts to enforce it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a moratorium on building new settlements in the West Bank last week, which settler leaders responded to with a civil disobedience campaign that has blocked inspectors from entering the settlements. “You have the right to demonstrate. You have the right to protest,” Netanyahu told settler leaders in a meeting on Thursday, according to a statement released by his office. “You have the right to express an opinion, but it’s unacceptable not to respect a decision that was taken by law.” He did, however, promise that building work could resume after the 10 month-freeze was lifted. The temporary and limited halt to settlement construction is designed to draw Palestinian negotiators to resume peace talks. In his meeting with the settlers, Netanyahu “stressed that this is the optimum decision for Israel at this time, if you look at the overall strategic reality,” said Mark Regev, a spokesman for the prime minister. “This is our confidence-building measure. Now it is in the Palestinians’ court. We have moved in an unprecedented manner, and it is time for them to respond.” The Palestinians contend that the new building restrictions do not go far enough, particularly because they only apply to construction in the West Bank and not to East Jerusalem, as well. But the settlers contend that the moratorium represents “the beginning of the end,” and they have scheduled a mass demonstration for next week in Jerusalem.

The dollar strengthened on Friday against both the yen and the euro after U.S. labor statistics reported that U.S. job losses in November were less than 10 percent of the expected figure. Gold, in turn, which strengthened to a record high on Thursday after rallying for weeks against expectations for a falling dollar, weakened slightly on Friday along with other metals. The dollar appears to be recovering from hitting a 14-year low against the Japanese yen last week, and is likely to continue strengthening as the United States further emerges from the recession, with job growth—and the recent less-than-expected job losses a small but encouraging sign—viewed as a principal indicator of future economic gains. Similarly, the Canadian dollar rose after Canada reported a jobs increase of 79,000, far more than expected. The stock markets responded positively to the labor markets. Upon the opening bell on Wall Street on Friday, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite, and the Dow Jones all hit intra-day highs for the year. Overseas, London’s FTSE 100 rose 1 percent and the FTSE Eurofirst 300 added 1.7 percent. UBS’ director of floor operations at the NYSE, Art Cashin, said of the U.S. employment statistics, “Santa Clause may have come early with this number.”

President Barack Obama’s long-awaited shift in strategy on the war in Afghanistan has received praise from European leaders, but getting more troops from them to help support the additional 30,000 U.S. forces now planned for deployment may prove more difficult. While British Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged 500 more troops in Afghanistan, and NATO promised at least 5,000 more, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in an interview that he would send “not a single solider more.” However, the newspaper quoted an unnamed senior French official saying President Sarkozy may reconsider. Germany, which has 4,400 troops in Afghanistan, said it would be ready to do more police training but was reluctant to commit more troops. The deployment will bring the total number of American troops to 98,000, while Britain will now have about 10,000 soldiers in the region. U.S. officials have said they’re looking for an additional 5,000 to 7,000 troops from allies. The Taliban released a statement following President Obama’s announcement, saying the extra troops “will provoke stronger resistance and fighting. [The U.S. forces] will withdraw shamefully.”

In an apparent attempt to crack down on inflation and its small but growing free market economy, North Korea revalued its currency and froze all cash transactions. The move, the first in 17 years by North Korea, caused confusion within the country, according to reports. The official exchange rate between the old won and the new is now 100 to one. Some analysts see the burgeoning free market economy threatening Kim Jong-Il’s hold on power and that the aim of the revaluation is to redistribute wealth throughout the country—a single family will reportedly be allowed to hold no more than 150,000 new won (roughly $1100) in hard currency. According to reports, all cash enterprises and services have been suspended by the government. North Korea took tentative steps to liberalize its economy after a famine in the late 1990s. Since then, the black market economy has grown and illicit currency exchanges have profited. The move seems intended to wipe clean the fortunes of these underground entrepreneurs and reestablish a more “perfect” socialist state.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) began public hearings on the legality of Kosovo’s independence from Serbia, which Pristina declared in February, 2008. Kosovo, which had been under a provisional UN administration since 1999, has been recognized as independent by 63 countries (including the United States) since its unilateral secession, and is expected to argue that it was never part of Serbia. “Kosovo’s independence is irreversible and that will remain the case, not only for the sake of Kosovo, but also for the sake of sustainable regional peace and security,” Kosovo’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Skender Hyensi said on Tuesday. “We are certain the court will confirm the will of Kosovo’s people to be independent and free.” Serbia, however, has argued that Kosovo’s secession was a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and has claimed the move was ethnically motivated and thus illegal under international law. The UN General Assembly had asked the ICJ, which is the United Nations’ highest judicial body, for an advisory ruling on the matter at the request of Serbia. The ICJ will hear testimony from 29 countries over the next nine days before issuing its ruling. Though it will not be binding, the decision is expected to set a precedent for other secessionist movements around the world, such as in Chechnya and Basque Country in Spain.

In another jab at the United States and its Western allies, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran would enrich its uranium itself rather than send it to Russia and France under a UN-brokered deal. The agreement was supposed to calm fears over Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear weapon by offering Tehran the option of letting foreign countries (which already possess enrichment technology) process Iranian uranium. This would theoretically prevent Iran from developing its own indigenous capacity for enrichment, and would ensure that the uranium provided to Iran’s civil nuclear program would fall short of levels required for weapons production. But Iran has repeatedly been backing down from the UN deal. “The Iranian nation will produce 20 percent enriched uranium and anything it needs (itself),” President Ahmadinejad said. He also called the recent International Atomic Energy Agency censure of Iran’s secret construction of a second enrichment plant “illegal.” “The Zionist regime [Israel] and its backer [the United States] cannot do a damn thing to stop Iran’s nuclear work,” he said.

Iranian Press TV reported on Sunday Iran’s intention to construct ten additional uranium enrichment facilities. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has requested Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization generate 20,000 megawatts of electricity for domestic use through 500,000 additional centrifuges by 2020. Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi explained that the decision was a direct response to the recent criticisms from the United Nations, and especially the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Germany). “We had no intention of building many facilities like the Natanz site,” Salehi said, “but apparently the West doesn’t want to understand Iran’s peaceful message.” In Paris, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner labeled Iran’s decision “a bit childish.” Also on Sunday, more than 200 members of the Iranian parliament signed a letter urging Ahmadinejad to restrict the IAEA’s presence in Iran, and some called for Iran’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Withdrawal would eliminate the West’s already limited inspection capability in Iran, but in so doing would signal malicious intent—beyond Iran’s stated peaceful intent for civilian energy—that might prompt harsher sanctions and perhaps even preemptive military action from Israel or others. As to Iran’s peaceful nuclear power generators, Russian sources told Reuters on Monday that the Bushehr plant—which Iran has contracted to Russia for an estimated $1 billion—will likely begin generating electricity in March 2010, coinciding with the Russian New Year.

Results from the Honduran presidential election, in which voters have appeared to reject President Manuel Zelaya, are putting the United States and Brazil at odds over the future of the Latin American nation. Zelaya, who was ousted from the presidency in a military coup in June, apparently lost to opponent Porfirio Lobo, who according to provisional election results won about 56 percent of the vote. The United States praised the vote; a U.S. State Department spokesman said the “the Honduran people took a necessary and important step forward.” But Brazil, which has hosted Zelaya in its embassy in Tegucigalpa since mid-September, said it would not recognize the results because of the military coup. “Brazil will maintain its position because it’s not possible to accept a coup,” said Brazilian president Luiz Inacio da Silva. Zelaya has called the election a “fraud” and tried to get Hondurans to boycott the vote.

The government of Dubai announced on Monday that it will not guarantee the debt of the investment firm Dubai World. The Director General of Dubai’s finance department, Abdulrahman al-Saleh, warned that creditors are responsible for their own lending decisions. “Creditors need to take part of the responsibility for their decision to lend to the companies. They think Dubai World is part of the government, which is not correct.” The federal United Arab Emirates (UAE) pledged cautiously on Monday to lend to Dubai banks, hoping to allay a crisis of confidence similar to, if on a far smaller scale, that which crippled the global economy last fall. “We will look at Dubai’s commitments and approach them on a case-by-case basis,” an anonymous UAE official told the press. “It does not mean that Abu Dhabi will underwrite all of their debts.” The Dubai finance department last week requested a six-month standstill on all Dubai World debts, including that of its property development subsidiary, Nakheel, totaling some $59 billion. Dubai World, a major impetus for Dubai’s stellar economic growth, had invested in lavish real estate projects, including artificial islands in the Persian Gulf and properties in Manhattan and Las Vegas. The standstill request surprised global investors who believed, and were told by Dubai officials, that the emirate would face no financial troubles in the near future. Mr. Saleh cautioned that global markets were overreacting to the news of Dubai’s standstill request and that, while firms will take losses in the near future, they will emerge stronger as the government restructures the businesses.

Trade chiefs from over 150 countries gathered in Geneva as the World Trade Organization (WTO) opened its first ministerial conference in four years. The conference, which commenced on Monday, was arranged as “a platform for ministers to review the functioning” of the multilateral trade body, said Director-General Pascal Lamy. Though it is not a negotiating forum, Lamy still urged the ministers to speed up their progress on the eight-year-old Doha Development Round, the WTO’s currently stalled round of trade negotiations. “The best way of strengthening the [international trade] system is concluding this round,” said Lamy, as world leaders set a new 2010 target to conclude the process. “Now we need action, concrete and practical action, to close the remaining gaps.” Developing countries echoed his call for urgency; the Cairns group, an alliance of 19 nations that account for more than 25 percent of the world’s agricultural exports, expressed its dismay at the lack of progress on Doha. The group of 33 developing countries (dubbed the G-33) also called for action, noting that it would stand firm to preserve developing-country interests as the Doha round proceeds, particularly on the contentious special safeguard mechanism (SSM)—the right to retain protective tariffs on agriculture should imports surge or prices drastically fall—that led to last year’s breakdown in talks. The conference (which will conclude on Wednesday) is set to address other trade-related issues as well, such as improving the resolution of trade disputes, preventing protectionism, enlarging membership, and cooperating with other international organizations.

Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission on Monday declared incumbent Hamid Karzai “the elected President of Afghanistan” for a second five-year term. The announcement comes one day after rival Abdullah Abdullah announced his withdrawal from a runoff planned for November 7. The second round balloting was canceled Monday morning after Abdullah withdrew. The number two finisher in the initial balloting on August 20 said he did not consider the Independent Election Commission to have been sufficiently reformed that a fair runoff could be guranteed, free from the widespread fraud that marked the first election round. The United States, Britain, and the United Nations each promptly issued congratulatory statements to President Karzai as the elected head of state, and others are expected to follow. Analysts believe, however, that American officials will continue to lead an intense diplomatic effort to reconcile the two candidates’ supporters and unify the country, perhaps through Karzai offering Abdullah a senior office in his administration. In a surprise visit to Kabul Monday, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon exhorted Karzai to “move swiftly to form a government that is able to command the support of both the Afghan people and the international community.” Speaking at his home after the press conference, Dr. Abdullah rejected any suggestion of joining Karzai’s administration—he had formerly served as Karzai’s Foreign Minister but left after a bitter falling out—and said of his withdrawal, “I did it with a lot of pain, but at the same time with a lot of hope for the future.  Because this will not be the end of anything, this will be a new beginning.” President Obama is scheduled to lead two National Security Council meetings at the White House on Afghanistan this week as he further considers his administration’s policy and further troop commitments. These deliberations had been clouded by uncertainty over the Afghan administration that would emerge from the election process.

The Pakistani military announced Monday it has captured the towns of Kaniguram, Cheena, and Makeen, strategic Taliban strongholds in the South Waziristan region of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The military, which began its current offensive on October 17, has reportedly cleared the captured areas of all insurgents, mines, and improvised explosive devices. The Pakistani government is now offering rewards totaling $5 million for information leading to the capture of Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, and 17 other Taliban leaders. Meanwhile, bombings continued to shake Pakistan on Monday, largely in response to the ongoing military offensive, as one bomb near military headquarters in Rawalpindi killed 30 people, including military officers and some civilians, in a crowded pedestrian area; and. Additionally, two suicide bombings at a security checkpoint in Lahore, Pakistan’s cultural center, killed a policeman and injured 25 civilians. A series of ten bombings have killed more than 300 Pakistani civilians since mid-October.

North Korea again pressed the United States to open direct bilateral talks, warning that it was prepared to “go its own way” with its nuclear program should Washington remain unresponsive. “It’s time for the United States to make a decision,” an unidentified spokesman for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry told the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Monday. “We have made it clear that we are ready to take part in multilateral talks, including the six-party talks, depending on the results of talks with the United States . . . If the United States is not ready to sit down face-to-face with us for talks, we cannot but go on our own way,” he added. The statement follows a rare meeting between Ri Gun, North Korea’s deputy nuclear envoy, and Sung Kim, the American special envoy on the North’s nuclear disarmament, in New York and San Diego last week. After months of defiance, North Korea has recently signaled a willingness to return to disarmament negotiations. Last month, it reaffirmed its invitation for Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. special representative for North Korea policy, to visit Pyongyang. Leader Kim Jong-Il also told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao last month that his country would consider a return to multilateral negotiations, which stalled in April after Pyongyang quit the forum and later conducted nuclear and long-range missile tests. But the North maintained that any return to the six-party framework; which brings together envoys from North Korea, the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea; depended on the progress of bilateral talks with Washington. to amend “hostile relations.” North Korea’s spokesman reiterated this on Monday, saying “the direct parties, which are the North and the United States, must first sit down and find a rational solution . . . [If the two countries] end the hostile relationship and build trust, there will be a meaningful step toward the denuclearizing of the Korean peninsula.” But whether this will be enough to convince the Obama administration to meet one-on-one is unclear; Washington has said it will only agree to direct talks as part of a resumption of the broader, six-party dialogue.

The UN suspended its support for army units operating in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, accusing the Congolese army of deliberately killing more than 60 civilians this year. After a tour of the region, UN peackeeping chief Alain Le Roy said the army had “clearly targeted” civilians, and that the United Nations mission in DR Congo (MONUC) would “immediately suspend its logistical and operational support to the army units implicated” in civilian killings between May and December. Congolese government spokesman Lambert Mende objected to the decision, saying the investigation was still ongoing. “We are surprised that the United Nations has announced sanctions against these units even before the conclusion of their investigation,” he said on Monday, warning that a withdrawal of support could destabilize the army. MONUC has backed the Congolese army in its military operations against Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels since January, and has provided logistical assistance in the east since a joint Rwandan and Congolese military operation was launched against against the rebel group in March. But the operation has come under widespread criticism for human rights abuses. According to human rights groups, more than 1,000 civilians have been killed, more than 7,000 women and girls raped, and more than 900,000 people forced to flee their homes since operations began in January.

Delegates from 180 countries are gathered in Barcelona today for five days of negotiations toward drafting a successor treaty to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol in advance of the symbolic Copenhagen Conference to be held December 7-18. The Barcelona preparatory round is aimed at reconciling an apparent impasse over the contentious issue of technology financing to developing nations. Strains were evident last week when the European Commission agreed that the cost of helping developing nations to reduce carbon emissions by 2020 would total about $150 billion, but talks became stalemated over the question of which nations would pay which proportion of those costs. Central and Eastern European nations, for example, which depend heavily on coal-fired power generation, warned they could not afford to pay in proportion to their emissions. Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, said that a full legally-binding treaty is unlikely at Copenhagen, but he noted that he was still convinced a political deal was possible. Danish Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard noted wryly, “Failure is the only thing we can’t afford.”

As Taliban militants raided a house used by UN personnel in the Afghan capital, reports were circulating that the Obama administration plans to secure 10 major population centers in Afghanistan as part of its shift in strategy in the eight-year war. President Barack Obama will make his final decision “in the coming weeks,” according to a White House spokesman, which could entail more troops in the country’s largest cities, but not necessarily more soldiers overall. October has become the deadliest month for U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. With just a month before the presidential runoff between President Hamid Karzai and challenger Abdullah Abdullah, the Taliban again attacked Western officials, this time a guest house where about 20 UN election workers were staying. Six were killed. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying three militants wearing suicide vests carried out the assault. “This is our first attack,” a Taliban spokesman told the Associated Press. In a related story, The New York Times reported that Ahmed Wali Karzai, the brother of President Karzai, has been paid by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for most of the past eight years for services such as fielding recruits for a paramilitary force operated by the CIA. Ahmed Karzai denied any involvement.

The systematic killing and raping of protesters in Guinea in September was “premeditated and pre-planned at the highest level,” the U.S.-based human rights organization Human Rights Watch reported on Tuesday. Last month, thousands of demonstrators gathered at a large sports stadium in Conakry, Guinea, to protest the expected presidential candidacy of junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara. Activists say 157 people were killed and over 1,000 were injured when soldiers opened fire on the crowd, though government officials put the toll at 57. Following an in-depth investigation, Human Rights Watch concluded that the killings, as well as widespread sexual violence that included the brutal public raping of dozens of women, were organized and committed by the elite Presidential Guard, known commonly as “red berets.” The group also found evidence that the armed forces attempted to hide evidence of these acts by seizing the bodies and burying them in mass graves. “There is no way the government can continue to imply the deaths were somehow accidental,” said Georgette Gagnon, Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “This was clearly a premeditated attempt to silence opposition voices.” Human Rights Watch reiterated its call for an international United Nations-led inquiry into the violence, with which Captain Camara has promised to cooperate. Workers in Guinea are now holding a nationwide strike to commemorate the victims of the violence.

Ex-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, on trial for war crimes in the Hague, is being accused of directing an ethnic cleansing campaign to rid his state of Muslims. In its opening remarks, the prosecution portrayed Karadzic as a man “who harnessed the forces of nationalism, hatred and fear to implement his vision of an ethnically separated Bosnia” and had direct contact with those carrying out the killings. Karadzic is facing two charges of genocide and nine charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). He is refusing to cooperate with the trial, however, saying he needs nine months to prepare his defense. But though Karadzic was not present at the trial’s opening, his chilling words recorded on phone taps during the conflict were entered into evidence by the prosecution. “They have to know that there are 20,000 armed Serbs around Sarajevo…it will be a black cauldron where 300,000 Muslims will die,” read the transcripts. “They will disappear. That people will disappear from the face of the earth.” Karadzic was indicted in 1995 for crimes committed during the 1992-95 war, which left more than 100,000 people dead. Among other incidents, he is accused of masterminding the killing of more than 7,000 Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica in July 1995. Officials are worried that Karadzic is attempting to draw out the proceedings, much like former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic did during his trial, which ended without a verdict after four years. Milosevic died in custody.

Senior U.S. officials will travel to Honduras Wednesday to try to salvage negotiations between ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and interim President Roberto Micheletti, which collapsed just days ago over the issue of Zelaya’s return to power. The Micheletti administration had said they were open to talks and would consider withdrawing from the presidency—but only if Zelaya, who was ousted in a coup in June, gave up his claim to the nation’s highest office. Zelaya flatly rejected this, saying “it would be unseemly, indecent for the Honduran people if I was to negotiate on the position which they elected me to.” Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Tom Shannon; his deputy, Craig Kelly; and Dan Restrepo, the White House’s special assistant for Western Hemisphere affairs; were expected to meet with each leader individually in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa to try to facilitate a solution. “It is important that it be a Honduran solution,” a spokeswoman for the State Department told the Wall Street Journal on the eve of the talks. “Everything is on the table.”

Hamas has instructed Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to refrain from voting in the upcoming January elections. President Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the rival Fatah movement (which governs the West Bank), has called for parliamentary and presidential voting, and is reportedly attempting to unite rival Palestinian factions against Hamas, the militant Islamic group that rules Gaza. The Interior Ministry in Gaza said it “rejects the holding of elections in the Gaza Strip because they were announced by someone who has no right to make such an announcement and because it came without national agreement.” According to a report in the Arabic newspaper al-Ayyam, Abbas wants all Palestinian factions and some independents to appear in one electoral list to show unity against Hamas. The latest dispute between the two rival factions threatens to further sour relations, which have been testy since Hamas routed Fatah from Gaza in 2007. Egypt has made attempts at reconciling the two parties via a pact that would have set June 28, 2010, as the next date for elections. Though Abbas has called for a January ballot, he may consider delaying the elections. In the past, Abbas has said he would agree to a summer vote if Hamas agreed to reconcile, and Hamas has also hinted that it would participate then. But with tensions rising, some Hamas leaders have countered that the group may hold a separate election of its own in Gaza this coming January.

Iran appears to be stalling a UN-drafted deal on its nuclear program, failing to accept the terms of the agreement as Friday’s deadline loomed. The deal, which International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Mohamed ElBaradei announced earlier this week, followed days of talks between the UN, Iran, and three interlocutors—Russia, France, and the United States. It arranged for Iran to export roughly 70 percent of its uranium to Russia and France for enrichment, which would greatly ease international concerns about its nuclear program by reducing its stockpile below the threshold needed to produce a weapon. But Iranian state television reported that though it hasn’t rejected the plan outright, the government preferred to buy fuel from foreign suppliers for its nuclear reactor, which has been producing medical isotopes for the last few decades. The report quoted an unnamed source close to Iran’s negotiation team saying, “Iran is interested in buying fuel for the Tehran research reactor within the framework of a clear proposal…. We are waiting for the other party’s constructive and trust-building response.” Such a move would not only fail to reduce Iran’s stock of nuclear material, but would also require waiving UN sanctions that currently bar Iran from making these types of purchases. As of this writing, Tehran had not yet offered an official decision on the IAEA’s deal, but French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said that “via the indications we are receiving, matters are not very positive.” Iran’s rejection of the deal would certainly come as a disappointment to the United States, Russia, and France, which all had endorsed the plan by Friday, and might make future negotiations more difficult, reported the BBC from Vienna.

The U.S. Justice Department announced Thursday it’s “largest ever” operation against a drug cartel. More than 3,000 Justice Department agents have been involved in the ongoing Project Coronado, which has led to the arrests of almost 1,200 people in the last four years. The target is La Familia Michoacana, a drug cartel and criminal organization accused of murdering Mexican anti-narcotic officials and of trafficking large amounts of illicit drugs and weapons into the United States. In a two-day raid announced yesterday, the Justice Department seized $3.4 million in cash, 144 weapons, more than 100 vehicles, and stashes of methamphetamines, cocaine, and marijuana. Patricia Espinosa, Mexico’s foreign minister, said the operation “is a very clear example of how co-operation [in the fight against drugs] has deepened. It is the result not only of the transfer of equipment but also of collaboration in general.” A grand jury in New York has indicted the alleged leaders of La Familia on charges of conspiracy to import cocaine and methamphetamines.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) inaugurated its first human rights commission on Friday, hailing it as a milestone for the regional bloc as it opened a three-day summit in Thailand. “The issue of human rights is not about condemnation, but about awareness, empowerment and improvement,” said Thailand’s prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva. “We shall not only demonstrate to the world that human rights is a priority but also show them realistic and constructive ways to deal with it,” he continued. According to a statement distributed by the Thai government, the commission would “promote and protect human rights by promoting public awareness and education,” but it will have no power to investigate governments or impose sanctions. This has raised concerns among some human rights activists, who called the body toothless and questioned its credibility, especially when “civil society” representatives from several countries were rejected by their governments at the meetings. “The commission has not been designed to be effective and impartial,” said Debbie Stothard, a human rights activist from Malaysia. Southeast Asia’s human rights record is blemished at best—Myanmar’s military government is currently detaining more than 2,000 political prisoners, including opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi; Cambodia’s parliament passed a law this week barring demonstrations of more than 200 people; Malaysia, which maintains tight controls on its media outlets, also detains people it deems a threat to national security without trial; and in southern Thailand, an ongoing military offensive against an Islamic separatist insurgency has drawn criticism from organizations like Human Rights Watch for its brutal policing tactics.

Meanwhile, the UN envoy to North Korea called that nation’s human rights situation “abysmal,” saying that about one third of its people are needlessly going hungry. In a report to a meeting of UN members, envoy Vitit Muntarbhorn said, “the human rights situation in the country remains abysmal owing to the repressive nature of the power base: at once cloistered, controlled and callous.” Though North Korea is “endowed with vast mineral resources controlled by the authorities,” millions still live in “abject poverty and suffer the prolonged deprivations linked with shortage of food and other necessities…. The exploitation of the ordinary people has become the pernicious prerogative of the ruling elite,” he continued. But Pak Tok-hun, North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the UN, said the report was “full of distortion, lies, falsity, devised by hostile forces.” Fresh UN sanctions were imposed on North Korea this year in response to its nuclear program, and international aid reaching the country fell significantly. Because of this shortfall, the UN’s World Food Program has been able to support fewer than 2 million people; earlier this year, it was feeding nearly 6 million.

Chinese officials on Friday celebrated the launching of ChiNext, China’s growth enterprise market (GEM), which seeks to attract investment to its emerging entrepreneurial sector. The launch emphasizes China’s ongoing experiment with privatization and innovation as a means of creating jobs and stimulating robust economic growth—heralding a growing focus on smaller enterprise. He Chengying, a development manager with Guosen Securities, noted that ChiNext “is especially necessary to help the small and medium-sized enterprises to raise funds after the global financial crisis. The time is ripe to launch the new board.” China’s other two stock exchanges, in Shanghai and Shenzhen, are dominated by state-owned enterprises, mostly large, industrial firms. The first group of 28 GEM firms will debut October 30 and include sectors of innovative energy and materials, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, advanced manufacturing, information technology, and modern service industries. The initial public offerings (IPOs) raised a combined $2.3 billion, though some analysts remarked that the stocks are overvalued and might precipitate speculation and market manipulation—ills that have plagued some Western economies and which China has sought to avoid.

Meanwhile, the U.S. congressional advisory panel, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, reported Thursday that Chinese cyberspying, apparently supported by the government in Beijing, has successfully penetrated several U.S. “high technology development” firms, a move likely intended to steal intellectual property and assess its competitors. The Commission did not, however, publicly name the firms or provide a damage assessment. A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington flatly denied the accusation.

After sharing “gallons of tea” and endless platters of lamb with U.S. Senator John Kerry, Afghan President Hamid Karzai reluctantly accepted the findings of a UN-backed panel that showed massive fraud had occurred during the Aug. 20 presidential vote and agreed to a Nov. 7 runoff. His challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, has also agreed to participate, but he said he would not accept an election conducted like the previous one and was preparing a list of conditions for election organizers. Some 200 of the 2,950 election chiefs have already been sacked after complaints by candidates and observers about voting irregularities and misconduct in their regions, and the United Nations announced that half of the most senior Afghan election officials would be fired. Karzai, who was hesitant to agree to a runoff even though final counts showed neither candidate with a majority of the vote, was finally persuaded after numerous meetings with Sen. Kerry. According to the Associated Press, Kerry talked on personal terms with Karzai about his own troubles during the 2004 U.S. presidential election and his decision not to pursue charges of voting irregularities in Ohio.

Iranian negotiators have agreed to a draft of an agreement that would reduce its stockpile of nuclear material, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Wednesday. The agreement; which comes after days of talks between the UN, Iran, the United States, Russia, and France; would arrange for Iran to temporarily export 75 percent of its uranium stockpile to Russia and France for enrichment. Though details have yet to be officially released, insiders from Russia’s nuclear industry told the BBC that under the proposed scheme, Iran will first send its uranium to the IAEA, which will forward it to Russia to be enriched. Russia will then return the uranium to the IAEA, which will give it to France to add the “cell elements” needed for Iran’s civilian nuclear reactor before returning it to Tehran, they said. The deal, which must be signed by Friday by the participating countries if it is to go into effect, aims to dispel Western suspicions that Iran is enriching uranium to produce a nuclear weapon. “Of course you are well aware that we have mastered enrichment technology,” said Iranian negotiator Ali Asghar Soltanieh, emphasizing that the deal was a gesture of Iranian goodwill. “We can produce the fuel for ourselves on this reactor for 20% enrichment, but we’ve decided that we will receive the fuel from the potential suppliers which are willing to do that instead,” he continued. IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradai was optimistic about the plan’s potential to engage Iran with the rest of the world. “I very much hope that people see the big picture that this agreement could open the way for a complete normalization of relations between Iran and the international community,” he said.

Poland is ready to take part in the United States’ reconfigured missile defense system, said Polish Prime Minster Donald Tusk on Wednesday. The new missile defense system “is a very interesting concept and a very much needed one and we are ready to participate in this project on the necessary scale,” he told reporters following a meeting with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden in Warsaw. “We are ready for joint responsibility.” Last month, Obama announced plans to scrap former President W. Bush’s plans for a missile shield in Eastern Europe—which would have deployed ground-based interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic—in favor of a sea-based system to counter the Iranian nuclear threat. The news upset many Poles, who worried for their own security and saw the move as a concession to Russia, which vehemently opposed the original plan. But at the meeting, Biden emphasized the United States’ friendship with Poland; “Make no mistake,” he said flatly. “Our commitment to Poland is unwavering . . . Simply put, our missile plan is better security for NATO and it’s better security for Poland, not only better security for the United States of America.” Under Obama’s plan, the United States will station sea-based defense shields in the Mediterranean Sea by 2011 before implementing a land-based shield in Eastern Europe after 2015. SM-3 interceptors, which are at the heart of the plan and are smaller and more mobile than the interceptors under Bush’s plan, will be stationed in Poland in 2018. Biden is also expected to brief Polish President Lech Kaczynski on Washington’s revised missile plans during his trip. For more on Poland’s strategic and geopolitical interest on the issue, see Polish journalist Wojciech Lorenz’s vivid reportage in “Poland: Straddling the Nuclear Frontier” (World Policy Journal, Fall 2009).

The president of the Marshall Islands was ousted by legislators in the first successful vote of no-confidence in the western Pacific nation’s history. Opposition to President Litokwa Tomeing had been building after he sacked Foreign Minister Tony deBrum and other cabinet ministers earlier this year, replacing them with opposition United Democratic Party senators and causing a split in the ruling party. This accelerated a power struggle between Tomeing and former President Kessai Note, who lost the presidency in 2007. The 17-15  vote barely reached the required majority, and the acting president, Ruben Zackhras, called for Parliament to reconvene Friday to elect a new president. Tomeing survived two earlier no-confidence votes. The former U.S. Trust territory, which won its independence from the United States in 1986, has a population of about 55,000.

The dollar rebounded slightly Friday morning following a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke after falling to its lowest level in 14 weeks a day earlier. It’s lost 11.5 percent of its value in the last six months. Bernanke acknowledged that “we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road,” in an effort to persuade investors that the Fed was prepared to target inflation. Analysts suggested that the dollar would strengthen, with higher interest rates that could attract investments from abroad. Most analysts believe the slide, to about the same level of two years ago, is a result of investors’ increasing acceptance of risk and the prospects of interest rates rising more rapidly outside the United States. Gold, other precious metals, and oil have also been rising as the dollar has plummeted.  Several Asian nations have responded to the dollar’s fall by devaluing their own currencies to support their export markets–intervention that has led to tensions between the United States and China in recent weeks. This week the United States began an intensive investigation of Chinese steel exports, following an earlier sharp increase in U.S. tariffs on imports of Chinese tires. The U.S. Treasury is preparing an announcement next week concerning its stand on Chinese manipulation of its currency. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly fell 3.6 percent in August. Despite a 16.3 percent increase the previous month–the sharpest rise in ten years–U.S. trade deficits have been falling substantially as the recession has slowed global trade, especially in oil, industrial manufactures, and other consumer items.

The Nigerian rebel group MEND announced that it would resume its attacks on oil pipelines and installations in the Niger Delta, calling the alleged success of a government amnesty plan for rebel fighters “a glaring untruth.” The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) warned in a statement that “we will fight for our land with the last drop of our blood” once its ceasefire expires on Oct. 15, and that it “considers this next phase of our struggle as the most critical . . . We intend to end 50 years of slavery of the people of the Niger Delta by the Nigerian government, a few individuals and the Western oil companies once and for all.” Lucky Ararile, the federal government’s amnesty program coordinator, affirmed that the government would react appropriately if attacks were carried out, and MEND will not be represented at Friday’s amnesty meeting between militant leaders and Nigerian President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. So far, more than 8,000 militants are reported to have laid down their arms under the amnesty program, and authorities estimate that number could more than double once all have been officially registered. Meanwhile, prominent human rights group Amnesty International called on Western oil firms to make amends for degrading the environment and disregarding human rights in the Niger Delta. “With the Nigerian federal government, the oil industry is one of the key players that has had a considerable responsibility for at least 50 years in the catastrophic situation in the Niger Delta,” said Francis Perrin, a member of the rights group’s executive bureau, to a press conference in Paris on Friday. “We see a direct link between oil exploitation, the degradation of the environment, and the violation of economic, social, cultural, civic and political rights.”

Leaders around the world reacted with praise and condemnation to President Barack Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize, with most publicly praising the decision, but some saying it was premature and undeserved. Not surprisingly, spokesmen for the Taliban and Hamas quickly denounced it, with the Taliban saying they had seen no change in his strategy for peace in Afghanistan, and Hamas calling the award “undeserved.” But unexpectedly, an aide to Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reacted positively. “We hope that this gives him the incentive to walk in the path of bringing justice to the world order,” said Ali Akbar Javanfekr, a media aide to Ahmadinejad. “We are not upset and we hope that by receiving this prize he will start taking practical steps to remove injustice in the world.” German chancellor Angela Merkel said President Obama’s goal for a world free of nuclear weapons, one of the issues cited by the Nobel Prize Committee for the award, is something “we must all try to achieve in the coming years.” French president Nicolas Sarkozy said the prize marked “America’s return to the hearts of the world’s peoples.” While some criticized the decision because the president is presiding over two wars, the Nobel committee hailed Obama’s efforts to “strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.”

As the United States withdraws military forces from their nation, Iraqis are finding difficulty sustaining political and economic development. Periodic bombings in recent weeks have become a pattern, following two of the bloodiest truck bombings at Baghdad government ministries on August 19 that killed 95, but the senior U.S. commander, General Raymond Odierno, denied that it represented a systemic security failure, acknowledging only “a clear security lapse.” The U.S. military is in the process of withdrawing 75,000 soldiers by August 2010, paring the number of American military to a residual training and advisory force of 50,000. This pace that could even accelerate if Iraqi elections, scheduled for January, go well. Politically, many Iraqis feel abandoned by the American withdrawal and the councils of local nationalist Iraqis fear that, without U.S. support, they may no longer be safe, much less effective, prompting concern about whether a relatively dramatic increase in security in recent months will be solidified by political reconciliation.  Many Iraqis are looking to get back to work, but are still finding jobs hard to find. In the oil sector, international bidding last year proved disappointing as few firms showed much interest in returning to oil production in Iraq. One Chinese company paid $3 billion dollars to established itself in Wasit Province, but imported its own Chinese labor, spurning local Iraqis who offered to work.  And beyond oil, Iraqi firms are finding difficulty attracting foreign investment.  Security is a serious impediment, but management corruption and the inefficiencies of old, decaying factories and the bureaucracy of a centrally planned economy have deterred further investment.

Iranian monarchist Mohammad-Reza Ali Zamani was sentenced to death for his participation in protests following this summer’s elections. According to semi-official Iranian news agency Mehr, Zamani was part of a group that sought to restore Iran’s monarchy, and was accused of fighting against the Islamic establishment and active membership of a “terrorist” royalist association, among other crimes. The conviction, which was first reported by the reformist Web site Mowjcamp, is the first death sentence in the trials of more than 100 opposition supporters accused of fomenting street violence after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won Iran’s disputed presidential elections in June. But human rights groups have denounced the proceedings as “show trials” meant only to intimidate the populace.

At negotiations in Geneva between the P5+1 and Iran, Iran agreed to allow IAEA inspectors into its declared nuclear facilities at Natanz and Qom. It also accepted in principal an offer from Russia and France, with U.S. support, to process most of Iran’s low-enriched uranium into nuclear isotopes for medical use in cancer treatment. Still, Friday morning, it appeared that the Iranian government had displayed little interest in abandoning any facet of its nuclear enrichment program that it continues to insist is designed purely for peaceful purposes. After the Geneva meeting, President Obama demanded that Iran allow Mohamed El-Baradei, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to inspect Iran’s nuclear facilities in the next two weeks and to cooperate by making available all relevant personnel and documents. The New York Times reports that “many diplomats and analysts believe that the plant near Qom is only one of a series of hidden installations that Iran has constructed, in addition to its publicly acknowledged ones, for what is considered to be a military program.” The medical nuclear isotope proposal exploits Iran’s demand for developing cancer treatments for some of its ailing senior leaders. Iran had previously imported relatively low-enriched uranium from Argentina but, in revealing the program to the IAEA earlier this year, admitted its stockpile was quickly depleting. Under the proposal, which Iran has agreed to in principal and is to be discussed in a subsequent meeting in Vienna on October 18, Iran will ship “most” of its nuclear material to Russia for enrichment and to France for conversion to fuel rods before being shipped back to Iran for medical and civilian power use under IAEA supervision. President Obama called the talks a “constructive beginning” but cautioned, “If Iran does not take steps in the near future to live up to its obligations, then the United States will not continue to negotiate indefinitely.” At an afternoon meeting of the first U.S.-Iran bilateral meetings in nearly 30 years, U.S. Under Secretary of State William J. Burns (the senior U.S. Foreign Service Officer) met with chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, who later reiterated Iran’s commitment to a world free of nuclear weapons but insisted upon Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear energy program. “We are committed to our commitment in the framework of the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), and at the same time we will go ahead and stick to our nuclear rights in the framework of the NPT.”

For more on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, see Kayhan Barzegar’s “The Paradox of Iran’s Nuclear Consensus” in the new Fall issue of World Policy Journal.

In an impassioned appeal at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, Somalian President Sheikh Sarif Sheikh Ahmed implored the international community for increased security and humanitarian assistance in his country. Sharif, who leads Somalia’s Western-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG), called on Washington and other nations to live up to their promises of aid. “We received many promises and pledges, but, unfortunately, the government hasn’t received the fulfillment of these pledges which has slowed down progress,” he said. “The international community seems not be ready to do anything for Somalia.” His remarks, delivered at CSIS to a standing-room only audience, followed meetings with U.S. officials and a visit to the United Nations in New York. Back at home, though, fierce clashes between Islamist rebel groups broke out in the southern city of Kismayo. Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam, Somalia’s two most powerful rebel groups, engaged in fighting on Thursday in the strategic port city, which they had jointly controlled before declaring war on each other earlier this week. As of Friday morning, at least 29 had been killed and more than 80 wounded in the clashes, and Al-Shabaab had taken control of the city. But fears that the fighting could spread are still quite real, and militants have imposed a daytime curfew on the citizens that have not yet fled Kismayo.

General Stanley A. McChrystal, the senior military commander in Afghanistan, made his first public statement since his Initial Commander’s Assessment was leaked to the public last month. In it, he grounded the mission in Afghanistan firmly within the principles of counterinsurgency and called for an increased U.S.-NATO coalition commitment to the mission. “At the end of the day,” he said, “we don’t win by destroying the Taliban, we don’t win by body counts, we don’t win by number of successful military raids or attacks. We win when the people decide we win.” He warned that “a strategy that does not leave Afghanistan in a stable position is probably a short-sighted strategy,” though he did not elaborate. McChrystal’s statement comes as the Obama administration is reconsidering the United States’ fundamental strategic interests in Afghanistan and South Asia, while determining whether those interests effectively fulfill McChrystal’s recent, classified request for forces, or treat the mission as purely a counterterrorist operation. McChrystal left no doubt on Thursday that he strongly believes U.S. strategic interests in Afghanistan are important, are threatened by the prospect of mission failure, and can be addressed through a counterinsurgency strategy that is bolstered by more resources. McChrystal did admit, however, “if that debate is necessary for a strong decision that is backed by resolve, then I think we have to take that time.” In public statements, the administration has insisted the mission is not nation-building, but designed to destroy terrorist organizations. Still, the administration’s metrics for mission success suggest more ambitious goals, especially metric “3b.” The goal, he continued, is to “promote a more capable, accountable, and effective government in Afghanistan that serves the Afghan people and can eventually function, especially regarding internal security, with limited international support.” Highlighting the debate, initial reports Friday morning claim that a NATO air strike killed several Afghans after NATO soldiers began taking fire. NATO air strikes have proven a remarkably effective counterterrorism tactic–killing Taliban fighters and senior leadership–but have been counterproductive in winning Afghan hearts and minds as part of the counterinsurgency effort.

For more on the situation in Afghanistan, see this week’s “Big Question” on the World Policy Blog.

Irish voters head to the polls today for a second referendum on the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty after rejecting it in June 2008. The purpose of the Treaty of Lisbon is to streamline EU decision-making. It has been in negotiations for nearly a decade and must be ratified by every EU country before it can take effect, and includes provisions to redistribute voting power within the EU, make its human rights charter legally binding, and reduce the number of commissioners in the European Commission. It also establishes a two-and-a-half year term for the European Council president—currently, presidents rotate on a six-month cycle—and condenses the existing offices of foreign affairs and external affairs chiefs into a High Representative on Foreign Affairs. Such reforms would presumably increase the EU’s clout on the world stage, but many argue that it would centralize EU power at the expense of national sovereignty. This was the main issue at stake when Ireland rejected the treaty in its first referendum last June. But the EU has made certain conciliatory gestures toward Ireland in the meantime, like assuring it that it would not lose its commissioner or be forced to change its anti-abortion laws. At the same time, the tumultuous economic climate has left many Irish voters seeking a closer embrace with their government’s partnership with its European neighbors. Brian Cowen, Ireland’s Taoiseach or prime minister, pleaded with his constituents for a “yes” vote in the referendum, but insists that if it fails, no more will be held. “There will not be a Lisbon Three—that’s for sure,” he said to reporters on Thursday. As of Friday afternoon, turnout was reported to be “low and slow,” though voting in Dublin was up substantially from last year’s count. “Friday is an important day for Ireland, and for the whole of the European Union,” said European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek on Thursday. “I hope the Irish people do come out and vote in large numbers, and I strongly encourage them to do so.”