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WARSAW—The Polish Ministry of Defense has decided to allow American forces to place a Patriot missile battery in Morag, barely 75 miles from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad that borders Poland. For months, unofficial reports had claimed that missiles would be stationed in Wesola, near Warsaw, which is closer to Russian territory.

The Defense Ministry alleges that the decision has nothing to do with Russia. They say that the military base in Morag is simply better prepared to host an American installation than any other base within reasonable distance of the Polish capital. Though a host of commentators are up in arms about the decision—seeing in it signs of a new Polish aggressiveness—these worries are misplaced.

Whether one battery of Patriots would add anything to the Polish air-defense system is questionable, but if so, the proposed location is probably the best place for these defensive weapons.

Yet, to be fair, it is difficult not to see the strategic importance of—and dangers inherent in—this decision. Russia has short-range missiles called Toczka in Kaliningrad, which can be armed with nuclear warheads. The Kremlin has also warned Warsaw that should it accept a U.S. missile defense system, it will be forced to move batteries of more dangerous Iskander missiles to the enclave.

As is to be expected, Moscow has reacted aggressively to any idea of new, advanced military installations being placed in Poland. The Kremlin’s initial reaction to the new location was a prompt (though unofficial) report, suggesting that it would move to strengthen its Baltic Fleet, which consists of some 100 ships. During the Cold War, this fleet was an advanced fist of Soviet power directed toward the West. Clearly, though, decisions of this caliber are not made easily or quickly. So is this just reflexive rhetoric from Moscow, or the beginnings of a new arms race?

Even before the proposed battery of Patriot missiles in Morag (only long-outdated Polish anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems are now deployed there), Russia has held fast to its theoretical “right” to attack, all but unopposed, this NATO member state. It’s as if the Cold War were still in effect. Maintaining this status quo is part posturing, part antiquated sense of security for the Kremlin—Poland continues to embody a buffer zone between the Russian bear and the well-equipped NATO main forces in Western Europe.

But nervous legislators in Warsaw should not allow Russian warnings to prevent the installation of new Patriot batteries. This eventuality would not produce a more harmonious relationship and in no sense enhances Poles’ sense of security.

From the very beginning of the negotiations concerning the placement of the U.S. missile defense system in Poland, our authorities set conditions about strengthening Poland’s air-defense network. Indeed, Polish negotiators received guarantees that one battery of Patriots would be placed in Poland even if the broader project was not developed.

Sure enough, President Barack Obama decided to scrap plans for the permanent missile defense base in Poland. (His administration still plans to develop a mobile-launch system, similar to one currently deployed on ships.)

The current Polish administration is not trying to poke the Russian bear—it is merely trying to find a balance between the strategic interests of the United States, which is trying to mend fences with Kremlin, and the need to care for the interests and security of Poland.

For those who say that this is a provocative move towards Russia: I say, show me how.

Wojciech Lorenz, a former editor with the BBC World Service, is a journalist with the Policy daily Rzeczpospolita.

For a more detailed study of the deployment of Western missile defenses in Poland, see Wojciech Lorenz’s article “Poland: Straddling the Nuclear Frontier” in the fall 2009 issue of World Policy Journal.

It’s winter in Europe: time for snow, St. Nicholas, and the annual Russia-Ukraine dispute over natural gas supplies. On Wednesday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned his counterparts in Ukraine not to try to modify a 10-year gas supply contract between the two countries. It’s a warning not to take lightly—last January, Russia turned off the taps to the Ukrainian pipeline network over what they said was a billion dollar debt owed to them by Kiev and claimed the Ukrainians were siphoning off gas bound for countries further west in Europe. (For their part, Kiev blamed the missing gas on their leaky, outdated pipeline network rather than theft).

Last January’s shutdown had drastic effects. Europe receives about 20 percent of their natural gas supplies from the Russian pipeline network. Countries in the former Soviet-controlled East though get half, or in some cases almost all, of their supplies via Russia. The Russia-Ukraine gas feud shut factories, chilled cities, and provoked a crisis across much of Europe.

Russia has the second-largest known reserves of natural gas in the world; Turkmenistan is thought to have the third-largest reserves, and other Central Asian states have significant stocks of their own. Europe would like to tap into these gas fields with pipelines that avoid Russian territory. Moscow, meanwhile, is eager to lock these Central Asian supplies into new pipeline networks that they would build and operate, knowing that control over a big chunk of Europe’s energy supplies provides a huge amount of political leverage.

Pipelines have thus become a big political issue for Europe. And in the race to build new pipelines, lately Russia seems to be edging into the lead. Read the rest of this entry »

The U.S. military on Friday began its first major offensive against the Taliban since President Obama announced the deployment of an additional 30,000 soldiers to Afghanistan on Tuesday. Operation Cobra’s Anger comprises 900 American Marines and British soldiers from Task Force Helmand, and 150 Afghan soldiers. In concert with the combat assault, a small contingent was dropped behind Taliban lines in northern Now Zad Valley—once a bustling market city of 30,000 that after years of fighting is a ghost town, home only to poppy fields—to disrupt Taliban communications and supply lines. Marine spokesman Maj. William Pelletier reported from Camp Leatherneck in Helmand: “Right now, the enemy is confused and disorganized. They’re fighting, but not too effectively.” Pelletier also reported that the coalition uncovered several arms caches and at least 400 pounds of explosives. Earlier on Friday, after a summit in Brussels, 25 NATO countries pledged 7,000 additional soldiers to Afghanistan, which will bring the combined U.S.-NATO forces to about 150,000 by this summer. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told delegates at NATO headquarters that the coming year would “see a new momentum in this mission.” Most of the additional U.S. soldiers will be deployed to the south and east, against the insurgency’s strongholds, whereas most of the additional NATO soldiers will be deployed to the north and west to defend against Taliban incursions and to begin political and economic development. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will host a special summit on Afghanistan for all troop-contributing nations in London on January 28.

Russia and the United States failed to reach a new agreement on nuclear arms as the midnight expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) looms, but both sides say they want a new weapons reduction treaty to come into force as soon as possible. START, which is set to expire at midnight on December 4, is an arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia signed by Mikhail Gorbachev and George H. W. Bush in 1991. It has led to the removal and destruction of about 80 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons and has also provided an important framework for verification, which will cease to formally exist when the treaty expires. But the Kremlin issued a statement on behalf of the U.S. and Russian presidents on Friday, emphasizing their “commitment, as a matter of principle, to continue to work together in the spirit of the START treaty following its expiration, as well as our firm intention to ensure that a new treaty on strategic arms enter into force at the earliest possible date.” The Russian Foreign Ministry said “intensive work” on a new treaty is ongoing and that “preparations for the signing are coming to a close,” but details of a new agreement have not been finalized. Washington has expressed its determination to establish a new agreement by the end of the year, and hopes to agree on an arms reduction treaty by the time President Obama travels to Oslo next week to accept his Nobel Peace Prize.

Settlers in the West Bank rejected a personal plea from Israel’s prime minister to respect his 10-month construction freeze, vowing to defy the law and resist any attempts to enforce it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a moratorium on building new settlements in the West Bank last week, which settler leaders responded to with a civil disobedience campaign that has blocked inspectors from entering the settlements. “You have the right to demonstrate. You have the right to protest,” Netanyahu told settler leaders in a meeting on Thursday, according to a statement released by his office. “You have the right to express an opinion, but it’s unacceptable not to respect a decision that was taken by law.” He did, however, promise that building work could resume after the 10 month-freeze was lifted. The temporary and limited halt to settlement construction is designed to draw Palestinian negotiators to resume peace talks. In his meeting with the settlers, Netanyahu “stressed that this is the optimum decision for Israel at this time, if you look at the overall strategic reality,” said Mark Regev, a spokesman for the prime minister. “This is our confidence-building measure. Now it is in the Palestinians’ court. We have moved in an unprecedented manner, and it is time for them to respond.” The Palestinians contend that the new building restrictions do not go far enough, particularly because they only apply to construction in the West Bank and not to East Jerusalem, as well. But the settlers contend that the moratorium represents “the beginning of the end,” and they have scheduled a mass demonstration for next week in Jerusalem.

The dollar strengthened on Friday against both the yen and the euro after U.S. labor statistics reported that U.S. job losses in November were less than 10 percent of the expected figure. Gold, in turn, which strengthened to a record high on Thursday after rallying for weeks against expectations for a falling dollar, weakened slightly on Friday along with other metals. The dollar appears to be recovering from hitting a 14-year low against the Japanese yen last week, and is likely to continue strengthening as the United States further emerges from the recession, with job growth—and the recent less-than-expected job losses a small but encouraging sign—viewed as a principal indicator of future economic gains. Similarly, the Canadian dollar rose after Canada reported a jobs increase of 79,000, far more than expected. The stock markets responded positively to the labor markets. Upon the opening bell on Wall Street on Friday, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite, and the Dow Jones all hit intra-day highs for the year. Overseas, London’s FTSE 100 rose 1 percent and the FTSE Eurofirst 300 added 1.7 percent. UBS’ director of floor operations at the NYSE, Art Cashin, said of the U.S. employment statistics, “Santa Clause may have come early with this number.”

For most of the world, the fall of the Berlin Wall seemed an amazing, unexpected new beginning. It was that, of course. But it was also an ending—the end of an unprecedented period of awakening and hope in East Germany.

At the time, I was living in West Berlin and working with members of a dissident East German environmental group. They were welcoming, curious, funny, and unabashedly nonconformist. Because they questioned official taboos and published “secret” information like the extent of pollution in East Germany, their telephones and homes were bugged, they couldn’t travel to the West, they were tailed and harassed and kept out of universities or fired from their jobs. Occasionally they went to jail. I admired the quiet courage that allowed them to place their security on the line for their beliefs—to risk the safe, if stifling, cocoon of socialism for a self-determined life.

Yet brave as they were, East Germany’s dissidents were a lonely handful with little influence. They couldn’t mobilize a whole country, like Poland’s Solidarity (a Polish trade union). East Germany’s government was rigidly ideological, and its people were traditionally obedient to authority. Plus, East Germany bordered on West Germany, which regularly siphoned off dissidents: East Germany could always banish uncomfortable critics to the West, which was more than happy to take them in. A few among the dissatisfied and frustrated were even permitted to emigrate. The small number of dissidents who preferred to stay and encourage change from within seemed like hopeless dreamers.

By the spring of 1989, Russian prime minister Mikhail Gorbachev’s influence was being felt across Eastern Europe. In Poland, Solidarity took part in a round table with the government. Hungarians commemorated the anti-communist uprising of 1956. East Germans, too, were getting restless, but the ossified regime refused to budge. Local elections were rigged. Demonstrations in Leipzig, in the south, were broken up violently by the secret police. The government praised China’s handling of Tiananmen Square, suggesting it might do the same. Change seemed further away than ever; leaving the country, hard as it was for average East Germans, seemed the only option. In summer, East Germans looking for a way out began streaming toward Hungary. There and in Poland, freedom was in the air. An East German dissident friend and I watched a demonstration in Warsaw that was escorted by one small police car. He couldn’t imagine that happening in East Germany. Like many of his compatriots, he didn’t believe East Germans would ever rise up in protest.

The Hungarians opened their border with Austria in September, and East German refugees inundated West Germany. But the East German government just clamped down harder.

And then came October. East Germany prepared to celebrate the 40th anniversary of its founding on October 7, with Gorbachev expected as a guest. The regime went all out: a military parade, flags everywhere, a carnival atmosphere—a celebration of communism.

But that night it all changed. Spontaneous demonstrations broke out in the center of town and surged outward, catalyzed by Gorbachev’s presence. I had come over to East Berlin to observe events and was sitting in a café with the same friend I’d been with in Warsaw. We watched in disbelief, tears in our eyes, as protesters passed us yelling “Join us!” and “We’re staying here!” It was a defiant cry: rather than going to the West, they would stay and change things. Suddenly that didn’t seem so hopeless. We heard reports of demonstrations in other cities as well. East Germans had risen up after all.

That night, we soon found out, many protesters were detained and beaten. But two days later, a demonstration by 70,000 people in Leipzig became the turning point. The government could have used force. Truckloads of police lined the side streets, and rumor had it that hospitals had been prepared for casualties. People were frightened. But they went out anyway in nonviolent protest, and the regime backed down. Instead of fighting that evening, the police and soldiers found themselves arguing politics with knots of demonstrators. Words had trumped guns.

After that, everything was different; now the East German air felt free, too, and a surge of hope gripped the country. No one spoke of leaving anymore. Everyone wanted to be part of the changes that were so obviously beginning. A public conversation emerged for the first time in decades. People found their voices, and everywhere they talked and talked. Taboos vanished. Discussions and events were too numerous to follow. Political groups sprang up like mushrooms, and government newspapers began hesitantly reporting on them. Non-government newspapers and magazines appeared. East Germans engaged in impassioned debates with government officials. They insisted that police officers who had beaten demonstrators be punished. They demanded the right to leave their country, and soon everyone knew it was just a matter of time before that would happen, too. The prime minister, Eric Honecker, and various Politburo members resigned.

And on November 4, the first-ever officially sanctioned demonstration, for freedom of speech, attracted nearly a million people to downtown East Berlin. Amid a sea of creative, funny, passionate signs and banners, East German artists, writers, and politicians spoke of their hope for a new beginning. No one talked about unifying with the West; perhaps naively, even many dissidents advocated building something new and indigenously East German, just as the Poles and Hungarians were doing in their countries. Hope, energy, enthusiasm, passion, the sense that anything was possible—that was October 1989, and a bit of November, in East Germany.

And then, around midnight on November 9, returning home from East Berlin after a day of translating for a foreign journalist, I found a line of East Germans waiting to cross to the West. The Wall had opened, more suddenly than anyone expected. The next day, hundreds of thousands of East Germans went shopping and sightseeing in West Germany and discovered that what they really wanted was to be able to afford normal things and live like normal people. For a time, euphoria was the predominant mood, but it didn’t take long before it waned. West Germans got annoyed at the influx from the East, and East Germans’ recently acquired confidence gave way to uncertainty. Anxiety and tension replaced relief and joy. No one knew what to expect. The assertive East German cry “We are the people!” changed to “We are one people!”; the dissidents’ hope of creating something new was overtaken by a more widespread wish for the security of tried and true West German prosperity. Unification a year later was the ultimate result. It wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. But the fact remains: when the wall came down, it spelled the end of a very special chapter in East German history, in which East Germans felt in control of their own destiny. October was over. A new period, dominated by West Germany, had begun.

Belinda Cooper, a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute and co-founder of its Citizenship and Security Program, is an adjunct professor at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs. Cooper, the editor of War Crimes: The Legacy of Nuremberg, teaches and lectures on human rights, international law, and the “war on terror.”

The death toll has risen to 155 and the wounded to 500 from two synchronized bombings in Baghdad Sunday morning that targeted the Ministry of Justice and the Baghdad Provincial Administration complex, just blocks from an August 19 truck bombing at the Ministry of Finance that killed 95. Pictures of the council complex show blown window panes revealing a gutted, blackened interior, making this one of the deadliest bombings in Iraq since the summer of 2007. On Monday morning another car bombing near Karbala, about 60 miles southwest of Baghdad, killed three and wounded five at a security checkpoint. This series of bombings comes as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki begins campaigning for reelection in January on a reputation of having guided Iraq past the worst of the violence that marked the years 2006 and 2007 and into a new phase of national unity and growth. Indeed Maliki had ordered the security blast walls surrounding Baghdad’s ministries moved closer to the buildings, permitting greater freedom of movement in the congested city and normalizing daily life. In response to Sunday’s bombings, Iraqi security forces have now closed most streets downtown, began conducting enhanced checkpoint searches, and are seeking international support in the criminal investigation of the attack. No one has yet claimed responsibility for the bombing, though authorities and outside analysts suspect Sunni insurgents affiliated with al Qaeda in Iraq. The bombings again raised serious concerns about how checkpoint security officials could allow two cars packed with hundreds of pounds of explosives into the city. The Washington Post assesses the bombings as “aimed at destroying faith in Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s ability to secure the country as the United States withdraws.”

International nuclear inspectors have arrived at the recently disclosed Iranian nuclear facility near Qom to assess whether the facility is used strictly for peaceful purposes. The inspectors were originally scheduled to leave Tehran on Tuesday but an Iranian MP suggested they might leave late Monday. The IAEA inspectors began their work as Iran was considerating a proposal to export its low-enriched uranium (LEU) for processing in Russia and France before being returned to Iran as medical isotopes. Iran initially agreed to the proposal in principle and, though it missed Friday’s deadline for a formal response, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki suggested Monday Iran would likely formally accept the proposal sometime this week. How much of its uranium it agrees to export, and at what rate, is still an open question. Iran is expected to meet again with the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany, known as the P5+1 nations, before November 1. The New York Times reports there are internal tensions within both the American and Iranian government caused by the current proposal.

Uruguay’s presidential election is headed toward a runoff after an ex-guerrilla fell short of the 50 percent needed for a victory over the nation’s former president. Jose Mujica, a candidate with the Broad Front party, appears to have received around 48 percent of the vote, while his opponent, Luis Lacalle of the conservative National Party, won some 30 percent. Even though votes are still be tallied, media exit polls show neither able to gain a majority without a runoff. With a Mujica victory, it is likely he would continue the socialist-leaning policies of outgoing President Tabare Vazquez. And it would be a remarkable story. Mujica was a founder of the Tupamaros, a rebel movement that tried to wrest power from the Uruguayan dictatorship throughout the 1970s and 1980s. Mujica has been shot nine times, was jailed three times and finally released in 1985. But he is not just a revolutionary, he is also a former agricultural minister. Lacalle, who was Uruguay’s president from 1990 to 1995, supports free markets and would push for cuts in government and taxes if he is re-elected. A runoff is scheduled for November 29.

In the first address to the Diet by a liberal Japanese leader in half a century, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said he wants a relationship of equals with the United States and vowed to revive the Japanese economy. In discussing his foreign policy before a meeting with President Barack Obama next month, Hatoyama said that “being equal means a relationship in which Japan can also actively propose roles and concrete actions that the Japan-U.S. alliance could perform for global peace and security.” He called that alliance the “foundation” of efforts to secure peace. He also said he would discuss the 47,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan, an issue that has riled some Japanese due to the fear of accidents from aircraft near the base and crimes that have been committed by American personnel. Another long-standing issue Hatoyama said he would address is a debate over four Pacific islands that Russia occupied in the days before the end of World War II that has been a sticking point between the two countries.

Monday’s election results confirmed Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali won a fifth five-year term, tallying between 84 percent and 99 percent of votes in each province during Sunday’s election, Reuters reports, adding that many voters in Sunday’s election said the president deserved another term because he had made Tunisia into one of the region’s most stable and prosperous countries. Still, other reports suggested that Tunisians abstained in apathetic resignation. Since Ben Ali rose to the presidency in 1987 he has built a reputation for repression, which has helped deter Islamic extremism but has also suppressed democracy, as well as for modeling regional economic growth, social welfare, and gender liberalization in the Arab world. Tunisia is expected to apply next year for “advanced status” with the European Union, opening its trade and enhancing its international standing. Ben Ali threatened late Saturday to retaliate against any who questioned the election’s legitimacy, a threat at least in part to avoid any criticism of the election potentially affecting Tunisia’s application to the EU.

Iran appears to be stalling a UN-drafted deal on its nuclear program, failing to accept the terms of the agreement as Friday’s deadline loomed. The deal, which International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Mohamed ElBaradei announced earlier this week, followed days of talks between the UN, Iran, and three interlocutors—Russia, France, and the United States. It arranged for Iran to export roughly 70 percent of its uranium to Russia and France for enrichment, which would greatly ease international concerns about its nuclear program by reducing its stockpile below the threshold needed to produce a weapon. But Iranian state television reported that though it hasn’t rejected the plan outright, the government preferred to buy fuel from foreign suppliers for its nuclear reactor, which has been producing medical isotopes for the last few decades. The report quoted an unnamed source close to Iran’s negotiation team saying, “Iran is interested in buying fuel for the Tehran research reactor within the framework of a clear proposal…. We are waiting for the other party’s constructive and trust-building response.” Such a move would not only fail to reduce Iran’s stock of nuclear material, but would also require waiving UN sanctions that currently bar Iran from making these types of purchases. As of this writing, Tehran had not yet offered an official decision on the IAEA’s deal, but French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said that “via the indications we are receiving, matters are not very positive.” Iran’s rejection of the deal would certainly come as a disappointment to the United States, Russia, and France, which all had endorsed the plan by Friday, and might make future negotiations more difficult, reported the BBC from Vienna.

The U.S. Justice Department announced Thursday it’s “largest ever” operation against a drug cartel. More than 3,000 Justice Department agents have been involved in the ongoing Project Coronado, which has led to the arrests of almost 1,200 people in the last four years. The target is La Familia Michoacana, a drug cartel and criminal organization accused of murdering Mexican anti-narcotic officials and of trafficking large amounts of illicit drugs and weapons into the United States. In a two-day raid announced yesterday, the Justice Department seized $3.4 million in cash, 144 weapons, more than 100 vehicles, and stashes of methamphetamines, cocaine, and marijuana. Patricia Espinosa, Mexico’s foreign minister, said the operation “is a very clear example of how co-operation [in the fight against drugs] has deepened. It is the result not only of the transfer of equipment but also of collaboration in general.” A grand jury in New York has indicted the alleged leaders of La Familia on charges of conspiracy to import cocaine and methamphetamines.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) inaugurated its first human rights commission on Friday, hailing it as a milestone for the regional bloc as it opened a three-day summit in Thailand. “The issue of human rights is not about condemnation, but about awareness, empowerment and improvement,” said Thailand’s prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva. “We shall not only demonstrate to the world that human rights is a priority but also show them realistic and constructive ways to deal with it,” he continued. According to a statement distributed by the Thai government, the commission would “promote and protect human rights by promoting public awareness and education,” but it will have no power to investigate governments or impose sanctions. This has raised concerns among some human rights activists, who called the body toothless and questioned its credibility, especially when “civil society” representatives from several countries were rejected by their governments at the meetings. “The commission has not been designed to be effective and impartial,” said Debbie Stothard, a human rights activist from Malaysia. Southeast Asia’s human rights record is blemished at best—Myanmar’s military government is currently detaining more than 2,000 political prisoners, including opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi; Cambodia’s parliament passed a law this week barring demonstrations of more than 200 people; Malaysia, which maintains tight controls on its media outlets, also detains people it deems a threat to national security without trial; and in southern Thailand, an ongoing military offensive against an Islamic separatist insurgency has drawn criticism from organizations like Human Rights Watch for its brutal policing tactics.

Meanwhile, the UN envoy to North Korea called that nation’s human rights situation “abysmal,” saying that about one third of its people are needlessly going hungry. In a report to a meeting of UN members, envoy Vitit Muntarbhorn said, “the human rights situation in the country remains abysmal owing to the repressive nature of the power base: at once cloistered, controlled and callous.” Though North Korea is “endowed with vast mineral resources controlled by the authorities,” millions still live in “abject poverty and suffer the prolonged deprivations linked with shortage of food and other necessities…. The exploitation of the ordinary people has become the pernicious prerogative of the ruling elite,” he continued. But Pak Tok-hun, North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the UN, said the report was “full of distortion, lies, falsity, devised by hostile forces.” Fresh UN sanctions were imposed on North Korea this year in response to its nuclear program, and international aid reaching the country fell significantly. Because of this shortfall, the UN’s World Food Program has been able to support fewer than 2 million people; earlier this year, it was feeding nearly 6 million.

Chinese officials on Friday celebrated the launching of ChiNext, China’s growth enterprise market (GEM), which seeks to attract investment to its emerging entrepreneurial sector. The launch emphasizes China’s ongoing experiment with privatization and innovation as a means of creating jobs and stimulating robust economic growth—heralding a growing focus on smaller enterprise. He Chengying, a development manager with Guosen Securities, noted that ChiNext “is especially necessary to help the small and medium-sized enterprises to raise funds after the global financial crisis. The time is ripe to launch the new board.” China’s other two stock exchanges, in Shanghai and Shenzhen, are dominated by state-owned enterprises, mostly large, industrial firms. The first group of 28 GEM firms will debut October 30 and include sectors of innovative energy and materials, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, advanced manufacturing, information technology, and modern service industries. The initial public offerings (IPOs) raised a combined $2.3 billion, though some analysts remarked that the stocks are overvalued and might precipitate speculation and market manipulation—ills that have plagued some Western economies and which China has sought to avoid.

Meanwhile, the U.S. congressional advisory panel, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, reported Thursday that Chinese cyberspying, apparently supported by the government in Beijing, has successfully penetrated several U.S. “high technology development” firms, a move likely intended to steal intellectual property and assess its competitors. The Commission did not, however, publicly name the firms or provide a damage assessment. A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington flatly denied the accusation.

After sharing “gallons of tea” and endless platters of lamb with U.S. Senator John Kerry, Afghan President Hamid Karzai reluctantly accepted the findings of a UN-backed panel that showed massive fraud had occurred during the Aug. 20 presidential vote and agreed to a Nov. 7 runoff. His challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, has also agreed to participate, but he said he would not accept an election conducted like the previous one and was preparing a list of conditions for election organizers. Some 200 of the 2,950 election chiefs have already been sacked after complaints by candidates and observers about voting irregularities and misconduct in their regions, and the United Nations announced that half of the most senior Afghan election officials would be fired. Karzai, who was hesitant to agree to a runoff even though final counts showed neither candidate with a majority of the vote, was finally persuaded after numerous meetings with Sen. Kerry. According to the Associated Press, Kerry talked on personal terms with Karzai about his own troubles during the 2004 U.S. presidential election and his decision not to pursue charges of voting irregularities in Ohio.

Iranian negotiators have agreed to a draft of an agreement that would reduce its stockpile of nuclear material, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Wednesday. The agreement; which comes after days of talks between the UN, Iran, the United States, Russia, and France; would arrange for Iran to temporarily export 75 percent of its uranium stockpile to Russia and France for enrichment. Though details have yet to be officially released, insiders from Russia’s nuclear industry told the BBC that under the proposed scheme, Iran will first send its uranium to the IAEA, which will forward it to Russia to be enriched. Russia will then return the uranium to the IAEA, which will give it to France to add the “cell elements” needed for Iran’s civilian nuclear reactor before returning it to Tehran, they said. The deal, which must be signed by Friday by the participating countries if it is to go into effect, aims to dispel Western suspicions that Iran is enriching uranium to produce a nuclear weapon. “Of course you are well aware that we have mastered enrichment technology,” said Iranian negotiator Ali Asghar Soltanieh, emphasizing that the deal was a gesture of Iranian goodwill. “We can produce the fuel for ourselves on this reactor for 20% enrichment, but we’ve decided that we will receive the fuel from the potential suppliers which are willing to do that instead,” he continued. IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradai was optimistic about the plan’s potential to engage Iran with the rest of the world. “I very much hope that people see the big picture that this agreement could open the way for a complete normalization of relations between Iran and the international community,” he said.

Poland is ready to take part in the United States’ reconfigured missile defense system, said Polish Prime Minster Donald Tusk on Wednesday. The new missile defense system “is a very interesting concept and a very much needed one and we are ready to participate in this project on the necessary scale,” he told reporters following a meeting with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden in Warsaw. “We are ready for joint responsibility.” Last month, Obama announced plans to scrap former President W. Bush’s plans for a missile shield in Eastern Europe—which would have deployed ground-based interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic—in favor of a sea-based system to counter the Iranian nuclear threat. The news upset many Poles, who worried for their own security and saw the move as a concession to Russia, which vehemently opposed the original plan. But at the meeting, Biden emphasized the United States’ friendship with Poland; “Make no mistake,” he said flatly. “Our commitment to Poland is unwavering . . . Simply put, our missile plan is better security for NATO and it’s better security for Poland, not only better security for the United States of America.” Under Obama’s plan, the United States will station sea-based defense shields in the Mediterranean Sea by 2011 before implementing a land-based shield in Eastern Europe after 2015. SM-3 interceptors, which are at the heart of the plan and are smaller and more mobile than the interceptors under Bush’s plan, will be stationed in Poland in 2018. Biden is also expected to brief Polish President Lech Kaczynski on Washington’s revised missile plans during his trip. For more on Poland’s strategic and geopolitical interest on the issue, see Polish journalist Wojciech Lorenz’s vivid reportage in “Poland: Straddling the Nuclear Frontier” (World Policy Journal, Fall 2009).

The president of the Marshall Islands was ousted by legislators in the first successful vote of no-confidence in the western Pacific nation’s history. Opposition to President Litokwa Tomeing had been building after he sacked Foreign Minister Tony deBrum and other cabinet ministers earlier this year, replacing them with opposition United Democratic Party senators and causing a split in the ruling party. This accelerated a power struggle between Tomeing and former President Kessai Note, who lost the presidency in 2007. The 17-15  vote barely reached the required majority, and the acting president, Ruben Zackhras, called for Parliament to reconvene Friday to elect a new president. Tomeing survived two earlier no-confidence votes. The former U.S. Trust territory, which won its independence from the United States in 1986, has a population of about 55,000.

The Electoral Complaints Commission has concluded that Afghan President Hamid Karzai failed to win a majority 50% of votes in the August 20 Afghan presidential election. Karzai was declared the winner in a preliminary judgment issued several days after the election. The ECC, supported by the UN and composed of both Afghan and foreign officials, assessed allegations of widespread voter fraud and, after invalidating fraudulent ballots, has reportedly determined Karzai earned just 48% of all votes, triggering a second round of voting. The runoff, against his principal rival Abdullah Abdullah, is controversial. Karzai himself has announced he will reject any decision that does not confirm his outright victory, believing fraud allegations are a western conspiracy to depose him. The approach of the harsh winter, as well as Afghan disaffection with the political process amid continuing Taliban threats, may dramatically lower voter turnout in a second round. Still, some analysts believe the second round is necessary to legitimize the election. President Obama is not likely to make a decision on American policy in Afghanistan until the election is finalized. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel told CNN on Sunday, “I think it would be irresponsible and…reckless to make a decision on U.S. troop levels if, in fact, you haven’t done a thorough analysis of whether in fact there’s an Afghan partner ready to fill that space.” President Obama’s national security team is meeting today for at least the sixth time in recent weeks to continue its strategic review.

Iran is vowing to take revenge against the United States and Britain after a suicide bombing killed six Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders over the weekend, and 42 total. The latest tension between Iran and the West comes as both sides are meeting with the International Atomic Energy Agency today in Vienna to discuss the Iranian nuclear program. The Guards’ commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari, said he has seen documents that show links between Jundullah, a Sunni terrorist organization based in Pakistan, and the United States and Britain. Both countries, including Pakistan, have denied involvement, but Jafari maintained “there will have to be retaliatory measures to punish them.” Various reports over the last few years have tied U.S. support to Jundullah as a means of destabilizing the Iranian government, but the United States has denied any direct funding. In order to forestall any problems in ongoing negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program, British prime minister Gordon Brown said it is important to mtaintain a diplomatic dialogue with Iran despite the recent bombing. In a gesture to the West, Iran invited Mohamed ElBaradei to Iran, the IAEA chief, to “discuss a number of matters.”

Pakistan continued its military offensive in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas for a third day, targeting Taliban militants in South Waziristan as both Pakistani army officers and Taliban spokesmen claimed early victories. One of the targets was the hometown of Taliban commander Qari Hussain, whom Pakistani officials believe to be the architect of the Taliban’s ongoing suicide bombing campaign. Meanwhile, U.S. Senator John Kerry is in Islamabad to discuss the $7.5 billion Kerry-Lugar bill that triples non-military aid to Pakistan. Some Pakistani officials have said the money undermines the country’s national sovereignty by requiring that the U.S. secretary of state verify that the civilian government is exercising control over the military. Some 30,000 Pakistani troops are fighting an estimated 10,000 Taliban militants, who are accused of launching attacks across the country in the last two weeks, including a raid on Pakistan’s army headquarters. More than 175 people have died in these incidents. Some believe that 250,000 refugees could flee from the fighting, which is expected to last six to eight weeks, at which point the onset of winter weather could halt the offensive.

Russia is preparing to issue its first international bond since 2000, designed to raise $18 billion in dollar-denominated securities. Russia is seeking the funds for infrastructure development and, while it retains about $400 billion in foreign reserves, it has spent $200 billion since August to support the ruble. One Russian banker noted that the contraction of credit markets offers Russia “the right climate for an international bond.” Russia’s FY09 budget deficit was its first since 1999, and Russia is anticipated to run a deficit for the next three years. Russian officials are expected in London next month to assess the market’s future. Russian bonds are expected to be a stable investment as long as oil prices remain steady and Russia avoids any military engagements with Georgia or other neighbors.

In a shift in U.S. policy, president Barack Obama has offered Sudan incentives designed to allow the regime to demonstrate a commitment to peace with rebel groups in Darfur. But he threatened “increased pressure” if the two sides failed to make progress. “First, we must seek a definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses and genocide in Darfur,” Obama said. “Second, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the north and south in Sudan must be implemented to create the possibility of long-term peace.” The incentives being discussed include normalization of diplomatic relations and removal from the list of nations considered state sponsors of terrorism, Robert Lawrence, director of policy and government relations of Save Darfur told World Policy Journal. Relief of some or all of Sudan’s $36 billion in international debt has also been discussed as a potential incentive, he added. The United States currently has sanctions in place against Khartoum. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed that Sudan would be entitled to the incentives if it demonstrated “verifiable changes” to end the conflict in Darfur. “Words alone are not enough,” she added. Secretary Clinton said the United States would closely monitor Sudanese elections scheduled for next year, a provision of the 2005 peace agreement aimed at ending the civil war between the largely Arab government and the black Darfuris. The elections have been postponed twice. The U.S. said it welcomed talks between officials from Sudan and Chad over the weekend, conducted as an attempt to normalize relations between the two neighbors after both countries accused the other of aiding rebel groups.

Let’s exaggerate. Iran has been singled out for persecution over its alleged nuclear bomb making program because in 1979 its Revolutionary Guards took the staff of the U.S. embassy hostage, causing outrage in America with even the esteemed Walter Cronkite ratcheting up the tension, putting up on the screen, as he read the nightly news, the number of days they had been incarcerated. The sitting president, Jimmy Carter, was deposed, tarred with the brush of utter failure.

Something of an exaggeration that this was the sole or even the most important factor in building a pro bomb lobby in Iran. Still it has a grain of truth: Iran has been singled out unfairly. The West and Russia are engaged in discriminating against it.

Brazil has had a nuclear enrichment program for decades (including a large ultracentrifuge enrichment plant, several laboratory-scale facilities, a reprocessing facility to make plutonium, and a missile program). In the 1980s it built two nuclear devices. Three years ago I asked the chief of mission at the U.S. embassy in Brasilia if Washington was worried about Brazil. “Not at all,” he replied. “In the early 1990s Brazil dismantled its nuclear weapons program, and Argentina, its supposed enemy, has done the same.” “But,” I insisted, “Brazil still has its enrichment program and a reprocessing facility”. “We have no worries about Brazil,” he answered. “We see eye to eye.” However, Brazil still resists, in part, the probing eye of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world’s nuclear watchdog.

In 1979 the attitude of the Carter administration toward Pakistan, then attempting to build its own bomb, was almost as harsh as is the attitude of the United States toward Iran today. All American military aid was suspended, even though the Taliban were a lurking potential threat. However, when Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan in December of that year, Carter persuaded Congress to restart a large-scale arms program. For the next decade, in return for Pakistan’s help building up the anti-Soviet mujahedeen fighters in Afghanistan (who later went to work for Osama bin Laden), Washington turned a blind eye to Pakistan’s effort to build nuclear weapons.

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PANEL: President Lech Kaczynski: Poland in Globalization

Introduction:
David A. Andelman, Editor, World Policy Journal

Featuring:
President Lech Kaczynski, Republic of Poland

Panel summary by Max Currier, World Policy Journal

Amid glazed sea bass and raspberry chocolate purse, David Andelman introduced Lech Kaczynski, president of the Republic of Poland, as “the leader of perhaps the single most dynamic nation to emerge from the Warsaw Pact.” President Kaczynski agreed, pointing out through a translator that Poland is a large geographic nation with an emerging economy that will soon be the sixth largest in the European Union in terms of GDP growth per capita. Poland, he later added, should be the 20th member of the G-20 because it is robust economically and it seeks to “contribute” as an engaging and productive member of the global economy.

Before a mixed European and American audience, President Kaczynski praised “the new U.S. administration” for taking “momentous decisions” regarding missile defense. “What we’re seeing is a new offer of American leadership in the world” based on “universal negotiations” for which “I wish all the best.” He characterized the U.S. “offer” in “the context of a changing multilateral world,” implying a difficulty in engaging both Europe and the United States, as well as Russia. “Reconciliation is better than conflict. … Development is always better than going backwards,” he said. “We will see in the coming years if this offer is doable.” Read the rest of this entry »