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Iranian Press TV reported on Sunday Iran’s intention to construct ten additional uranium enrichment facilities. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has requested Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization generate 20,000 megawatts of electricity for domestic use through 500,000 additional centrifuges by 2020. Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi explained that the decision was a direct response to the recent criticisms from the United Nations, and especially the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Germany). “We had no intention of building many facilities like the Natanz site,” Salehi said, “but apparently the West doesn’t want to understand Iran’s peaceful message.” In Paris, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner labeled Iran’s decision “a bit childish.” Also on Sunday, more than 200 members of the Iranian parliament signed a letter urging Ahmadinejad to restrict the IAEA’s presence in Iran, and some called for Iran’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Withdrawal would eliminate the West’s already limited inspection capability in Iran, but in so doing would signal malicious intent—beyond Iran’s stated peaceful intent for civilian energy—that might prompt harsher sanctions and perhaps even preemptive military action from Israel or others. As to Iran’s peaceful nuclear power generators, Russian sources told Reuters on Monday that the Bushehr plant—which Iran has contracted to Russia for an estimated $1 billion—will likely begin generating electricity in March 2010, coinciding with the Russian New Year.

Results from the Honduran presidential election, in which voters have appeared to reject President Manuel Zelaya, are putting the United States and Brazil at odds over the future of the Latin American nation. Zelaya, who was ousted from the presidency in a military coup in June, apparently lost to opponent Porfirio Lobo, who according to provisional election results won about 56 percent of the vote. The United States praised the vote; a U.S. State Department spokesman said the “the Honduran people took a necessary and important step forward.” But Brazil, which has hosted Zelaya in its embassy in Tegucigalpa since mid-September, said it would not recognize the results because of the military coup. “Brazil will maintain its position because it’s not possible to accept a coup,” said Brazilian president Luiz Inacio da Silva. Zelaya has called the election a “fraud” and tried to get Hondurans to boycott the vote.

The government of Dubai announced on Monday that it will not guarantee the debt of the investment firm Dubai World. The Director General of Dubai’s finance department, Abdulrahman al-Saleh, warned that creditors are responsible for their own lending decisions. “Creditors need to take part of the responsibility for their decision to lend to the companies. They think Dubai World is part of the government, which is not correct.” The federal United Arab Emirates (UAE) pledged cautiously on Monday to lend to Dubai banks, hoping to allay a crisis of confidence similar to, if on a far smaller scale, that which crippled the global economy last fall. “We will look at Dubai’s commitments and approach them on a case-by-case basis,” an anonymous UAE official told the press. “It does not mean that Abu Dhabi will underwrite all of their debts.” The Dubai finance department last week requested a six-month standstill on all Dubai World debts, including that of its property development subsidiary, Nakheel, totaling some $59 billion. Dubai World, a major impetus for Dubai’s stellar economic growth, had invested in lavish real estate projects, including artificial islands in the Persian Gulf and properties in Manhattan and Las Vegas. The standstill request surprised global investors who believed, and were told by Dubai officials, that the emirate would face no financial troubles in the near future. Mr. Saleh cautioned that global markets were overreacting to the news of Dubai’s standstill request and that, while firms will take losses in the near future, they will emerge stronger as the government restructures the businesses.

Trade chiefs from over 150 countries gathered in Geneva as the World Trade Organization (WTO) opened its first ministerial conference in four years. The conference, which commenced on Monday, was arranged as “a platform for ministers to review the functioning” of the multilateral trade body, said Director-General Pascal Lamy. Though it is not a negotiating forum, Lamy still urged the ministers to speed up their progress on the eight-year-old Doha Development Round, the WTO’s currently stalled round of trade negotiations. “The best way of strengthening the [international trade] system is concluding this round,” said Lamy, as world leaders set a new 2010 target to conclude the process. “Now we need action, concrete and practical action, to close the remaining gaps.” Developing countries echoed his call for urgency; the Cairns group, an alliance of 19 nations that account for more than 25 percent of the world’s agricultural exports, expressed its dismay at the lack of progress on Doha. The group of 33 developing countries (dubbed the G-33) also called for action, noting that it would stand firm to preserve developing-country interests as the Doha round proceeds, particularly on the contentious special safeguard mechanism (SSM)—the right to retain protective tariffs on agriculture should imports surge or prices drastically fall—that led to last year’s breakdown in talks. The conference (which will conclude on Wednesday) is set to address other trade-related issues as well, such as improving the resolution of trade disputes, preventing protectionism, enlarging membership, and cooperating with other international organizations.

After celebrating four decades in power last month, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi visited the United Nations (and the United States) for the first time and addressed the UN General Assembly today. He spoke after President Barack Obama, which symbolically, if not actually, created an uncomfortable encounter.

The controversy over the release of the convicted Lockerbie bomber “on compassionate grounds” and his subsequent hero’s welcome in Tripoli outraged many victims’ families and elicited a White House complaint. Many analysts and commentators have since remarked that this episode has confirmed the old cliché that a leopard cannot change his spots. Nevertheless, Washington faces a dilemma over whether to continue actively engaging Libya or to proceed with caution—holding short of military assistance or even re-imposing economic sanctions.

There’s little argument that Libya has been (at least partially) rehabilitated, following the nation’s 2003 renunciation of nuclear weapons and the 2002 $2.7 billion settlement of the civil lawsuit from the 270 Lockerbie victims’ families that was paid out in stages over the following few years. In response, Washington facilitated the end of UN Security Council-imposed economic sanctions and, in 2006, removed the former pariah state from the list of nations that promote terrorism. Washington henceforth began the process of initiating military assistance to its erstwhile enemy. Much progress has transpired, particularly with respect to core U.S. national security interests, but internal politics and the ruling structure within Libya are still largely the same. Read the rest of this entry »

Days after President Obama introduced new tariffs on Chinese tires, China’s commerce ministry took steps towards imposing tariffs on U.S. automotive and poultry exports. China launched anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into the two industries, citing complaints from Chinese manufacturers that the U.S.-made products entered China’s markets with “unfair competition.” Officials say the probe is not intended as retaliation for the new U.S. policy, which was widely condemned in China as a “grave act of trade protectionism,” said Chen Deming, China’s minister of commerce. (The U.S. tariff will tack an additional 35 percent surcharge on Chinese-made tires, starting September 26.) Beijing has requested World Trade Organization (WTO)-sanctioned consultations over the U.S. tariffs, noting that they are in contravention of both WTO rules and commitments made at the April G-20 summit. In the United States, some analysts have called the tariffs an overtly political effort to appease union workers and secure their support for domestic policies, especially health care. Both China and the United States, however, stand to lose if a trade row escalates—the Chinese economy relies heavily on exports to the United States, while Beijing holds trillions in Treasury bonds and dollar-denominated assets. Amidst widespread warnings that protectionist sanctions could hinder a rebound from the economic crisis, fears of a full-blown trade war pushed markets lower around the world on Monday.

The United Nations’ highest court will hear final arguments from Argentina over claims that a Uruguayan paper mill is polluting a shared river. The mill, which sits on the Uruguay River, is causing “irreversible” environmental damage and discharging pollutants into the water and the air, according to Argentinean lawyers arguing before the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Argentinean lawyers contend the mill releases harmful effluents into densely populated area whose inhabitants use the river for fishing, leisure, and tourism, while Uruguayan officials claim the mill is a model of eco-responsibility. Argentina filed an application with the ICJ in May 2006, accusing Uruguay of unilaterally authorizing construction of two mills on the river and breaching a 1975 bilateral treaty, which said all decisions regarding the river must be made through consultations and agreement between both countries. The ICJ dismissed a bid by Argentina in July 2006 to halt construction of both mills, but plans for the second mill have now been abandoned.

At least 14 women and children were killed and dozens more were injured in southern Pakistan as a charity food giveaway became a stampede. According to officials, hundreds of women had assembled in the southern port city of Karachi to collect free flour and rice from a local businessman observing the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. However, the distribution quickly devolved into chaos, with most of the deaths caused by suffocation. Crowding and congestion made it impossible for rescue workers to adequately respond. President Asif Ali Zardari expressed “shock and grief” over the deaths and ordered an immediate judicial probe to determine responsibility. Prices for staple goods have risen sharply in the region and the government has not been able to provide relief to the growing numbers of people stricken with poverty. During Ramadan, Islam’s most sacred month, many wealthy business leaders in the community give alms, distributing free foodstuffs or cooked foods to the poor.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that his country has received $2.2 billion in credit from Russia to purchase nearly 100 tanks and a series of anti-aircraft rocket systems. The weapons include 92 Soviet-era T-72 main battle tanks and 300-millimeter Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems. After meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Chavez noted that the weapons were needed “to modernize our fleet of armored vehicles,” but also said the purchases were not directed at any particular country. Tensions between Venezuela and its neighbor, Colombia, have been heightened of late, due to Colombia’s agreement with U.S. forces to allow access to several of domestic bases. “With these rockets it is going to be very difficult for [the United States] to come and bomb us,” Chavez said. Venezuela also finalized a deal with a group of Russian companies to invest $20 billion to develop the Junin 6 block of crude reserves in the Orinoco Belt, estimated as one of the largest sand oil deposits in the world.

Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula daSilva will unveil a sweeping reform of the country’s oil and natural gas industries today. The proposal is expected to introduce a new regulatory framework for the exploration and development of recently discovered offshore oil deposits in Brazil’s pre-salt fairway. This so-called “pre-salt” area, below a thick layer of salt formations and more than 13,000 feet below the sea bed, is estimated to hold as much as 50 billion barrels of oil and is the deepest oil reservoir Brazil has found (thus far, its oil discoveries have all been post-salt, or above the salt layer). The legislation will delineate exactly who may operate in the still-unleased blocks in the pre-salt area. Government-run Petrobras will likely be given rights to operate in the region, plus a minimum ownership stake of about 30 percent in each block. A new state-controlled company, Petrosal, will be created to manage the new assets and determine how royalties from the deposits will be distributed. The legislation is not, however, expected to change the existing legal framework for exploration and development outside the pre-salt area. “The government has proposed a model that may complicate an already successful system,” said Andrew Derman of Thomson & Knight, which represents many oil and natural gas companies that operate in Brazil. “However, the oil and gas industry successfully works in a variety of contractual systems worldwide and will adapt to the regulatory environment.” The reforms are a part of President daSilva’s effort to use the new found oil wealth to ease poverty and improve education and technology in Brazil, but a quick passage of the legislation is unlikely. “The proposed legislation will receive a great deal of Congressional scrutiny and the ensuring debate could be protracted,” explained Alexandre Chequer, also of Thomson and Knight.

In Sunday’s elections, a record high turnout of Japanese voters overwhelmingly elected the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), ending nearly 45 years of rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In a dramatic reversal, the DPJ opposition increased its seats in the Lower House from 112 to 308, while the LDP lost 181 of its previous 300 seats. (Upper House elections take place in July and an election for Prime Minister in September.) Some consider the vote primarily a response to domestic Japanese economic trends. The ruling LDP commanded a strong reputation of developing the Japanese economy after World War II, but the economy weakened during the recession of the 1990s and that weakness has continued into the present global economic slowdown. The result has been high unemployment, falling wages, and a public debt nearing 200% of GDP. Japan’s foreign policy under the DPJ is uncertain. Chinese officials, still nursing deep resentments over Japan’s invasion of China and other Asian countries between 1937 and 1945 that has isolated Japan within its own region, await a formal apology from the Japanese government before pursuing closer relations. The DPJ may is also likely to reevaluate the LDP’s strong ties with the United States–particularly whether to evict 50,000 Americans from a U.S. military base at Okinawa.

For more on Japan’s political struggles, see Why Japan Can’t Lead by Aurelia George Mulgan (World Policy Journal, Summer 2009).

NASA has launched the U.S. shuttle Discovery to the International Space Station, carrying food and equipment to the orbital outpost in its 30th maintenance flight. After nearly two full days of traveling, it arrived at the ISS on Sunday night with more than seven tons of gear to unload, including a freezer to store research samples, a new sleeping compartment, and a treadmill (named after television personality Stephen Colbert) to maintain the astronauts’ health. “The entire rendezvous and docking was smooth as silk,” said NASA mission commentator Rob Navias. The mission also includes three spacewalks to prepare the space station for full-time science operations. The first, scheduled for Tuesday, will be to retrieve several experiments to be brought back to earth for analysis, as well as to install a new tank of ammonia coolant. Discovery will spend a total of 13 days in space and is due to return to the Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Sept. 10.

Nearly 60 percent of black and African people living in the Russian capital of Moscow have been victims of racially motivated violence, says a new study published by the Moscow Protestant Chaplaincy (MPC), an interdenominational Christian congregation ministering to Moscow’s foreign communities. According to the report, Africans living or working in the city are essentially “under siege,” living in constant fear of attack and avoiding crowded places and public transportation. Of the 200 people surveyed, about a quarter said they had been attacked multiple times, and some 80 percent had experienced verbal abuse. The number of assaults actually decreased since the MPC’s last survey in 2002, but many of the attacks remain premeditated and extremely violent. One Nigerian man interviewed by the BBC said he was shot after having been stabbed multiple times in the back, and another man claimed an attacker tried to remove his scalp. At least one dozen immigrants have been killed and hundreds more injured in racially driven attacks this year alone. Meanwhile, Joachim Crima, a 37-year-old native of Guinea-Bissau aiming to become Russia’s first black elected official, may have competition from a builder of Ghanian descent. Crima, who is running for district chief in the Russian region of Volograd, has been dubbed the “Volgograd Obama” by media outlets and is the first black person to ever be a candidate for office in Russia. His newest competitor, Filipp Kondratyev, whose father is from Ghana and whose mother is Russian, registered last week for the October 11 polls. Kondratyev’s spokesman denied that his candidacy was put forth in an effort to take votes away from Crima.

North Korea’s efforts to restructure its foreign trade provoked conflicting international responses as it opened its border with South Korea but was caught shipping banned weapons to Iran. South Korea announced that regular traffic of goods and personnel will resume on Tuesday across a heavily fortified stretch of the border that the North had closed in December–the latest in a recent series of conciliatory gestures from North Korea to both South Korea and the United States. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that the United Arab Emirates has seized a ship carrying munitions, detonators, explosives and rocket-propelled grenades—all embargoed by the United Nations, and disguised as oil—manufactured in North Korea and en route to Iran. The United Nations has imposed heavy sanctions on both Iran and North Korea, though the U.N. has not yet commented publicly on the weapons seizure. The seizure is also a positive signal from the U.A.E., an import-export hub for Iran and several other Middle East nations, which has been accused of allowing questionable shipments to transit through its ports.

At the summit meeting that opens in Italy on Wednesday, the leaders of the G8 are expected to announce a food security initiative—an effort to reverse “the tendency of decreasing official development aid to agriculture” and, instead, to increase investment in food production in the developing world.

According to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Washington spends 20 times more on short-term food aid in Africa than it does on long-term agricultural programs to develop local food production. A similar bias exists in the policies of the European Union, which uses the guise of food aid to dump production surpluses in developing nations.

Nothing may come of the new promises, as nothing came of the big hoo-ha at the G8 summit four years ago when a massive increase in aid, especially to Africa, was agreed upon. But long-term investment in food production is just what poorer countries need.

Most of the world’s poor live in the rural backwaters of Africa, Asia, and Latin America; most are small farmers or landless farm workers. Despite the cries in 2007-08 when world food prices suddenly shot up to historic highs, there was actual benefit, albeit long term, for the global poor.

Last summer’s price spike was a long-overdue correction in the terms of trade. For too long, the world’s urban minority (whether they be shanty-town dwellers in Lagos or the inhabitants of middle-class suburb in Mumbai) has been subsidized by the cheap food produced by the poorest of the poor—those left behind in the remote reaches of the countryside. For the majority of the world’s rural poor, there exist far too few schools, agricultural advisers, or health clinics; a lack of investment has not even fixed the rutted roads and battered trucks that bring their produce to market.

I was in the Nigerian countryside in 2007, as prices were beginning to skyrocket. The peasants I talked to, who were largely growing the local staple crop, cassava, were happy about the turn in events. It meant they could sell their produce at a substantially higher price than before. They planned to expand their seeding the following year, and have done so, though prices have now fallen. Fortunately for the farmers, the prices have not yet hit bottom. Read the rest of this entry »

Since I wrote my piece on the arms trade for the 25th anniversary issue of World Policy Journal, the Bush boom in arms exports has actually accelerated. Major offers that were made between mid-September and early October of this year include a $7 billion agreement to sell a Lockheed Martin missile defense system to the United Arab Emirates; a $15 billion deal for Israel to receive the United States’ latest fighter plane, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (another Lockheed Martin product, in partnership with Boeing); and over $6 billion in offers to Taiwan for anti-missile systems, attack helicopters, and anti-ship missiles. The Obama administration will inherit these mega-deals, which are very hard to roll back once an official offer has been made.

These deals come at an ideal time for Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and other arms makers. The economic crisis will force some sort of re-evaluation of the Pentagon’s record budget, which is now at its highest level since World War II. Weapons systems on the chopping block could include Lockheed Martin’s F-22 and F-35 combat aircraft, Boeing’s costly and complicated Future Combat System (FCS) for the Army, and Northrop Grumman’s Virginia-class attack submarine. The big contractors won’t be out on the street begging for change, but they will be scrambling to support themselves in the style to which they have become accustomed during the Bush/Rumsfeld/Cheney years.

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In the uproar over France’s denial of Faiza Mabchour’s citizenship application over her wearing of the niqab, many commentators have found it easy to condemn France for being racist/religionist/whatever-ist you want to call it. But the reality is that people are uncomfortable with people who look different—and societies adopt clothing as a political tool for many different purposes and in many different contexts.

In a delicious irony, as American pundits were wringing their hands over France and the veil, a small Illinois town passed a law banning baggy pants that reveal underwear—a case of preventing (mainly) men from revealing too much, as opposed to punishing a woman for revealing too little.

Many Westerners—and yes, even we New Yorkers who believe ourselves to be sophisticated and tolerant—would be deeply uncomfortable when faced with the prospect of more and more people on the street whose faces we cannot see. It is folly to ignore that visceral reaction.

How can France address the deep-seated fears about the niqab? The answer turns out to be the same as the answer to how it can protect Muslim women’s rights and French values.
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