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COPENHAGEN—Under the vaulting sloped-glass roof of Copenhagen’s Bella Center, the excitement is palpable. I’m here for the two-week long “COP 15,” or the Fifteenth Conference of the Parties of the UN Convention on Climate Change. The world’s environment ministers have arrived in advance of the historic gathering of 110 heads of state coming next week.

It’s been a rollercoaster ride so far. On Friday, spirits lifted after much uncertainty that any sort of deal could be struck, when a draft agreement that seemed to have some consensus finally circulated. It said that—using 1990 levels as a baseline—all countries together should reduce emissions from 50 to 95 percent by 2050, with rich countries cutting emissions from 25 to 40 percent by 2020.

But then at a ministerial meeting on Sunday, the United States dropped a bomb: it couldn’t commit to a legally binding target for emissions reductions because Congress hasn’t approved the proposal. Not surprisingly, Canada and other rich nations followed suit, saying essentially, “well, then we won’t either.”

“When that happened, the whole dialogue broke down,” said Papua New Guinea Minister Kevin Conrad, who was present. In rebuff, lesser-developed countries basically told the rich world to “sort out your problems internally and then you come back and talk to us about the things we can do.” Then they walked out, stopping negotiations for most of today.

By Monday, the conference chair, Danish Minister Connie Hedegaard, had managed to overcome the deadlock through some quick diplomacy. But the peace is fragile, and there’s an increasingly pessimistic sense among a number of country delegates and representatives from non-governmental organizations about the possibility of any significant deal being struck here.

The pessimism is understandable, given the vast differences in perspectives. For example, last week Washington scoffed at the idea that there exists a “climate debt” that industrialized countries owe to the world (an idea based on the inconvenient fact that wealthy nations have caused the vast majority of the current problem). But in a developing world press conference I just attended, cries were made for “twenty-four trillion dollars in reparations for climate change damages, as well as a radical reduction of emissions in the North.” Meanwhile, 1,200 protesters were taken into police custody over the weekend. Some of them held up signs that read, “Blah, Blah, Blah. Take Action!” referring to the perception that nothing of substance had come of last week’s negotiations.

Against this backdrop, the world’s leaders will soon arrive to try and hammer out the contentious bargaining issues like financing and exactly how deeply to cut emissions. It’s only going to get more interesting. Read the rest of this entry »

President Barack Obama’s long-awaited shift in strategy on the war in Afghanistan has received praise from European leaders, but getting more troops from them to help support the additional 30,000 U.S. forces now planned for deployment may prove more difficult. While British Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged 500 more troops in Afghanistan, and NATO promised at least 5,000 more, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in an interview that he would send “not a single solider more.” However, the newspaper quoted an unnamed senior French official saying President Sarkozy may reconsider. Germany, which has 4,400 troops in Afghanistan, said it would be ready to do more police training but was reluctant to commit more troops. The deployment will bring the total number of American troops to 98,000, while Britain will now have about 10,000 soldiers in the region. U.S. officials have said they’re looking for an additional 5,000 to 7,000 troops from allies. The Taliban released a statement following President Obama’s announcement, saying the extra troops “will provoke stronger resistance and fighting. [The U.S. forces] will withdraw shamefully.”

In an apparent attempt to crack down on inflation and its small but growing free market economy, North Korea revalued its currency and froze all cash transactions. The move, the first in 17 years by North Korea, caused confusion within the country, according to reports. The official exchange rate between the old won and the new is now 100 to one. Some analysts see the burgeoning free market economy threatening Kim Jong-Il’s hold on power and that the aim of the revaluation is to redistribute wealth throughout the country—a single family will reportedly be allowed to hold no more than 150,000 new won (roughly $1100) in hard currency. According to reports, all cash enterprises and services have been suspended by the government. North Korea took tentative steps to liberalize its economy after a famine in the late 1990s. Since then, the black market economy has grown and illicit currency exchanges have profited. The move seems intended to wipe clean the fortunes of these underground entrepreneurs and reestablish a more “perfect” socialist state.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) began public hearings on the legality of Kosovo’s independence from Serbia, which Pristina declared in February, 2008. Kosovo, which had been under a provisional UN administration since 1999, has been recognized as independent by 63 countries (including the United States) since its unilateral secession, and is expected to argue that it was never part of Serbia. “Kosovo’s independence is irreversible and that will remain the case, not only for the sake of Kosovo, but also for the sake of sustainable regional peace and security,” Kosovo’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Skender Hyensi said on Tuesday. “We are certain the court will confirm the will of Kosovo’s people to be independent and free.” Serbia, however, has argued that Kosovo’s secession was a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and has claimed the move was ethnically motivated and thus illegal under international law. The UN General Assembly had asked the ICJ, which is the United Nations’ highest judicial body, for an advisory ruling on the matter at the request of Serbia. The ICJ will hear testimony from 29 countries over the next nine days before issuing its ruling. Though it will not be binding, the decision is expected to set a precedent for other secessionist movements around the world, such as in Chechnya and Basque Country in Spain.

In another jab at the United States and its Western allies, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran would enrich its uranium itself rather than send it to Russia and France under a UN-brokered deal. The agreement was supposed to calm fears over Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear weapon by offering Tehran the option of letting foreign countries (which already possess enrichment technology) process Iranian uranium. This would theoretically prevent Iran from developing its own indigenous capacity for enrichment, and would ensure that the uranium provided to Iran’s civil nuclear program would fall short of levels required for weapons production. But Iran has repeatedly been backing down from the UN deal. “The Iranian nation will produce 20 percent enriched uranium and anything it needs (itself),” President Ahmadinejad said. He also called the recent International Atomic Energy Agency censure of Iran’s secret construction of a second enrichment plant “illegal.” “The Zionist regime [Israel] and its backer [the United States] cannot do a damn thing to stop Iran’s nuclear work,” he said.

U.S. officials unveiled a new detention facility at Bagram air field in Afghanistan, promising greater openness and better living conditions for inmates. The existing facility at Bagram has been shrouded in secrecy, garnering criticism for human rights abuses after two of its inmates died last year following interrogations. The prison, which holds its roughly 700 detainees without charges, will close by the end of the year, and the U.S. military plans to move its inmates to the new $60 million housing complex. “The new facility…provides improved detainee living conditions…as well as vocational, technical, and other programs to assist with peaceful reintegration of released detainees,” Brig. Gen. Mark Martins, head of the detention facilities at Bagram, told international journalists on a tour of the new facility, tentatively named Detention Facility in Parwan, on Sunday. “You are here because transparency certainly benefits the effort.” Human rights groups have praised some aspects of the new facility, including the separation of hard-core insurgents from those who may be reconciled with society and the move to open administrative hearings, in which detainees are assessed for their readiness to be released, to outsiders as well as to the detainees themselves. But many critics still call for President Barack Obama to further reform the U.S.’ Afghan detention policies. “All detainees in Afghanistan are entitled to minimum protections, including the right to legal counsel, and to be able to challenge the legal and factual basis for the detention before an independent and impartial tribunal,” rights groups Amnesty International, Human Rights First, and Human Rights Watch said in a joint statement. “The U.S. reforms still fall short of providing detainees with those rights.” Transfers of prisoners to the new facility are expected to begin within the next two weeks.

Israeli officials on Monday continued to denounce the Palestinian Authority’s intention to unilaterally declare statehood and seek formal recognition from the United Nations. Senior Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, announced the gambit on Saturday and, on Sunday—the twenty-first anniversary of Yasser Arafat’s declaration of statehood—President Mahmoud Abbas added, “God willing, we will soon have an independent state with its capital in [East] Jerusalem” under 1967 borders. Many observers consider the proposal a political tactic to force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to reengage peace negotiations, stalled since the Gaza war last December, and restrict further settlement construction in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. An Al Jazeera reporter in Ramallah relayed, “What [Palestinians] want [now] is something a lot more concrete. They know it won’t immediately result in the withdrawal of Israeli occupation troops from their territory, but they want the Israelis to stand in front of an international collective will that says this is what needs to be done in order for peace to be realized.” The statements incited a furor of criticisms from the Israeli government. Netanyahu declared, “Any unilateral action will undo the framework of past accords and lead to unilateral actions from Israel.” Transport Minister Yisrael Katz later added, “Let them not threaten us with unilateral measures; we can also take unilateral measures such as annexing the settlement blocs.” Without U.S. support, the Palestinian proposal is not likely to be approved by the requisite two-thirds of the UN General Assembly.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull offered a landmark apology to hundreds of thousands of “forgotten Australians” and former child migrants who were abused or neglected in state facilities. In an emotional ceremony in the capital of Canberra, Rudd apologized for what he called “an ugly chapter” in Australia’s history. “The truth is this is an ugly story, and its ugliness must be told without fear or favor if we are to confront fully the demons of our past,” he said to a crowd at Parliament House. “We are sorry. Sorry for the tragedy—the absolute tragedy—of childhoods lost,” he continued. Between 1930 and 1970, approximately 500,000 children were abused or neglected in orphanages or homes in the Australian institutional care system. Of these, many were part of the Child Migrants Program, a scheme designed to bring “good white stock” to Commonwealth countries like Australia and Canada. Under the program, the United Kingdom sent poor children to these countries promising a “better life.” But, in many cases, families were never notified that their children had been sent away, the children were falsely informed that they were orphans, and, once they arrived, they faced extreme cruelty and neglect while in state care. “You were failed by the system of care,” Turnbull added, choking back tears. “Today we acknowledge that, already feeling alone, abandoned and left without love, many of you were beaten and abused, physically, sexually, mentally—treated like objects not people—leaving you to feel of even less worth…For far too long, your stories were not believed when they should have been, and for that too we apologize, and we are sorry.” Roughly 7,000 survivors of the program currently live in Australia, including Laurie Humphreys, who attended Rudd’s apology. “The word ’sorry’ doesn’t mean much. You can’t say sorry for a lost childhood,” the former child migrant worker told Time magazine. “But you can acknowledge it, and that’s what I needed.” U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is expected to offer a similar apology sometime in the new year.

Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission on Monday declared incumbent Hamid Karzai “the elected President of Afghanistan” for a second five-year term. The announcement comes one day after rival Abdullah Abdullah announced his withdrawal from a runoff planned for November 7. The second round balloting was canceled Monday morning after Abdullah withdrew. The number two finisher in the initial balloting on August 20 said he did not consider the Independent Election Commission to have been sufficiently reformed that a fair runoff could be guranteed, free from the widespread fraud that marked the first election round. The United States, Britain, and the United Nations each promptly issued congratulatory statements to President Karzai as the elected head of state, and others are expected to follow. Analysts believe, however, that American officials will continue to lead an intense diplomatic effort to reconcile the two candidates’ supporters and unify the country, perhaps through Karzai offering Abdullah a senior office in his administration. In a surprise visit to Kabul Monday, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon exhorted Karzai to “move swiftly to form a government that is able to command the support of both the Afghan people and the international community.” Speaking at his home after the press conference, Dr. Abdullah rejected any suggestion of joining Karzai’s administration—he had formerly served as Karzai’s Foreign Minister but left after a bitter falling out—and said of his withdrawal, “I did it with a lot of pain, but at the same time with a lot of hope for the future.  Because this will not be the end of anything, this will be a new beginning.” President Obama is scheduled to lead two National Security Council meetings at the White House on Afghanistan this week as he further considers his administration’s policy and further troop commitments. These deliberations had been clouded by uncertainty over the Afghan administration that would emerge from the election process.

The Pakistani military announced Monday it has captured the towns of Kaniguram, Cheena, and Makeen, strategic Taliban strongholds in the South Waziristan region of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The military, which began its current offensive on October 17, has reportedly cleared the captured areas of all insurgents, mines, and improvised explosive devices. The Pakistani government is now offering rewards totaling $5 million for information leading to the capture of Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, and 17 other Taliban leaders. Meanwhile, bombings continued to shake Pakistan on Monday, largely in response to the ongoing military offensive, as one bomb near military headquarters in Rawalpindi killed 30 people, including military officers and some civilians, in a crowded pedestrian area; and. Additionally, two suicide bombings at a security checkpoint in Lahore, Pakistan’s cultural center, killed a policeman and injured 25 civilians. A series of ten bombings have killed more than 300 Pakistani civilians since mid-October.

North Korea again pressed the United States to open direct bilateral talks, warning that it was prepared to “go its own way” with its nuclear program should Washington remain unresponsive. “It’s time for the United States to make a decision,” an unidentified spokesman for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry told the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Monday. “We have made it clear that we are ready to take part in multilateral talks, including the six-party talks, depending on the results of talks with the United States . . . If the United States is not ready to sit down face-to-face with us for talks, we cannot but go on our own way,” he added. The statement follows a rare meeting between Ri Gun, North Korea’s deputy nuclear envoy, and Sung Kim, the American special envoy on the North’s nuclear disarmament, in New York and San Diego last week. After months of defiance, North Korea has recently signaled a willingness to return to disarmament negotiations. Last month, it reaffirmed its invitation for Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. special representative for North Korea policy, to visit Pyongyang. Leader Kim Jong-Il also told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao last month that his country would consider a return to multilateral negotiations, which stalled in April after Pyongyang quit the forum and later conducted nuclear and long-range missile tests. But the North maintained that any return to the six-party framework; which brings together envoys from North Korea, the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea; depended on the progress of bilateral talks with Washington. to amend “hostile relations.” North Korea’s spokesman reiterated this on Monday, saying “the direct parties, which are the North and the United States, must first sit down and find a rational solution . . . [If the two countries] end the hostile relationship and build trust, there will be a meaningful step toward the denuclearizing of the Korean peninsula.” But whether this will be enough to convince the Obama administration to meet one-on-one is unclear; Washington has said it will only agree to direct talks as part of a resumption of the broader, six-party dialogue.

The UN suspended its support for army units operating in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, accusing the Congolese army of deliberately killing more than 60 civilians this year. After a tour of the region, UN peackeeping chief Alain Le Roy said the army had “clearly targeted” civilians, and that the United Nations mission in DR Congo (MONUC) would “immediately suspend its logistical and operational support to the army units implicated” in civilian killings between May and December. Congolese government spokesman Lambert Mende objected to the decision, saying the investigation was still ongoing. “We are surprised that the United Nations has announced sanctions against these units even before the conclusion of their investigation,” he said on Monday, warning that a withdrawal of support could destabilize the army. MONUC has backed the Congolese army in its military operations against Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels since January, and has provided logistical assistance in the east since a joint Rwandan and Congolese military operation was launched against against the rebel group in March. But the operation has come under widespread criticism for human rights abuses. According to human rights groups, more than 1,000 civilians have been killed, more than 7,000 women and girls raped, and more than 900,000 people forced to flee their homes since operations began in January.

Delegates from 180 countries are gathered in Barcelona today for five days of negotiations toward drafting a successor treaty to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol in advance of the symbolic Copenhagen Conference to be held December 7-18. The Barcelona preparatory round is aimed at reconciling an apparent impasse over the contentious issue of technology financing to developing nations. Strains were evident last week when the European Commission agreed that the cost of helping developing nations to reduce carbon emissions by 2020 would total about $150 billion, but talks became stalemated over the question of which nations would pay which proportion of those costs. Central and Eastern European nations, for example, which depend heavily on coal-fired power generation, warned they could not afford to pay in proportion to their emissions. Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, said that a full legally-binding treaty is unlikely at Copenhagen, but he noted that he was still convinced a political deal was possible. Danish Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard noted wryly, “Failure is the only thing we can’t afford.”

As Taliban militants raided a house used by UN personnel in the Afghan capital, reports were circulating that the Obama administration plans to secure 10 major population centers in Afghanistan as part of its shift in strategy in the eight-year war. President Barack Obama will make his final decision “in the coming weeks,” according to a White House spokesman, which could entail more troops in the country’s largest cities, but not necessarily more soldiers overall. October has become the deadliest month for U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. With just a month before the presidential runoff between President Hamid Karzai and challenger Abdullah Abdullah, the Taliban again attacked Western officials, this time a guest house where about 20 UN election workers were staying. Six were killed. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying three militants wearing suicide vests carried out the assault. “This is our first attack,” a Taliban spokesman told the Associated Press. In a related story, The New York Times reported that Ahmed Wali Karzai, the brother of President Karzai, has been paid by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for most of the past eight years for services such as fielding recruits for a paramilitary force operated by the CIA. Ahmed Karzai denied any involvement.

The systematic killing and raping of protesters in Guinea in September was “premeditated and pre-planned at the highest level,” the U.S.-based human rights organization Human Rights Watch reported on Tuesday. Last month, thousands of demonstrators gathered at a large sports stadium in Conakry, Guinea, to protest the expected presidential candidacy of junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara. Activists say 157 people were killed and over 1,000 were injured when soldiers opened fire on the crowd, though government officials put the toll at 57. Following an in-depth investigation, Human Rights Watch concluded that the killings, as well as widespread sexual violence that included the brutal public raping of dozens of women, were organized and committed by the elite Presidential Guard, known commonly as “red berets.” The group also found evidence that the armed forces attempted to hide evidence of these acts by seizing the bodies and burying them in mass graves. “There is no way the government can continue to imply the deaths were somehow accidental,” said Georgette Gagnon, Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “This was clearly a premeditated attempt to silence opposition voices.” Human Rights Watch reiterated its call for an international United Nations-led inquiry into the violence, with which Captain Camara has promised to cooperate. Workers in Guinea are now holding a nationwide strike to commemorate the victims of the violence.

Ex-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, on trial for war crimes in the Hague, is being accused of directing an ethnic cleansing campaign to rid his state of Muslims. In its opening remarks, the prosecution portrayed Karadzic as a man “who harnessed the forces of nationalism, hatred and fear to implement his vision of an ethnically separated Bosnia” and had direct contact with those carrying out the killings. Karadzic is facing two charges of genocide and nine charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). He is refusing to cooperate with the trial, however, saying he needs nine months to prepare his defense. But though Karadzic was not present at the trial’s opening, his chilling words recorded on phone taps during the conflict were entered into evidence by the prosecution. “They have to know that there are 20,000 armed Serbs around Sarajevo…it will be a black cauldron where 300,000 Muslims will die,” read the transcripts. “They will disappear. That people will disappear from the face of the earth.” Karadzic was indicted in 1995 for crimes committed during the 1992-95 war, which left more than 100,000 people dead. Among other incidents, he is accused of masterminding the killing of more than 7,000 Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica in July 1995. Officials are worried that Karadzic is attempting to draw out the proceedings, much like former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic did during his trial, which ended without a verdict after four years. Milosevic died in custody.

Senior U.S. officials will travel to Honduras Wednesday to try to salvage negotiations between ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and interim President Roberto Micheletti, which collapsed just days ago over the issue of Zelaya’s return to power. The Micheletti administration had said they were open to talks and would consider withdrawing from the presidency—but only if Zelaya, who was ousted in a coup in June, gave up his claim to the nation’s highest office. Zelaya flatly rejected this, saying “it would be unseemly, indecent for the Honduran people if I was to negotiate on the position which they elected me to.” Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Tom Shannon; his deputy, Craig Kelly; and Dan Restrepo, the White House’s special assistant for Western Hemisphere affairs; were expected to meet with each leader individually in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa to try to facilitate a solution. “It is important that it be a Honduran solution,” a spokeswoman for the State Department told the Wall Street Journal on the eve of the talks. “Everything is on the table.”

Hamas has instructed Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to refrain from voting in the upcoming January elections. President Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the rival Fatah movement (which governs the West Bank), has called for parliamentary and presidential voting, and is reportedly attempting to unite rival Palestinian factions against Hamas, the militant Islamic group that rules Gaza. The Interior Ministry in Gaza said it “rejects the holding of elections in the Gaza Strip because they were announced by someone who has no right to make such an announcement and because it came without national agreement.” According to a report in the Arabic newspaper al-Ayyam, Abbas wants all Palestinian factions and some independents to appear in one electoral list to show unity against Hamas. The latest dispute between the two rival factions threatens to further sour relations, which have been testy since Hamas routed Fatah from Gaza in 2007. Egypt has made attempts at reconciling the two parties via a pact that would have set June 28, 2010, as the next date for elections. Though Abbas has called for a January ballot, he may consider delaying the elections. In the past, Abbas has said he would agree to a summer vote if Hamas agreed to reconcile, and Hamas has also hinted that it would participate then. But with tensions rising, some Hamas leaders have countered that the group may hold a separate election of its own in Gaza this coming January.

Iran appears to be stalling a UN-drafted deal on its nuclear program, failing to accept the terms of the agreement as Friday’s deadline loomed. The deal, which International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Mohamed ElBaradei announced earlier this week, followed days of talks between the UN, Iran, and three interlocutors—Russia, France, and the United States. It arranged for Iran to export roughly 70 percent of its uranium to Russia and France for enrichment, which would greatly ease international concerns about its nuclear program by reducing its stockpile below the threshold needed to produce a weapon. But Iranian state television reported that though it hasn’t rejected the plan outright, the government preferred to buy fuel from foreign suppliers for its nuclear reactor, which has been producing medical isotopes for the last few decades. The report quoted an unnamed source close to Iran’s negotiation team saying, “Iran is interested in buying fuel for the Tehran research reactor within the framework of a clear proposal…. We are waiting for the other party’s constructive and trust-building response.” Such a move would not only fail to reduce Iran’s stock of nuclear material, but would also require waiving UN sanctions that currently bar Iran from making these types of purchases. As of this writing, Tehran had not yet offered an official decision on the IAEA’s deal, but French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said that “via the indications we are receiving, matters are not very positive.” Iran’s rejection of the deal would certainly come as a disappointment to the United States, Russia, and France, which all had endorsed the plan by Friday, and might make future negotiations more difficult, reported the BBC from Vienna.

The U.S. Justice Department announced Thursday it’s “largest ever” operation against a drug cartel. More than 3,000 Justice Department agents have been involved in the ongoing Project Coronado, which has led to the arrests of almost 1,200 people in the last four years. The target is La Familia Michoacana, a drug cartel and criminal organization accused of murdering Mexican anti-narcotic officials and of trafficking large amounts of illicit drugs and weapons into the United States. In a two-day raid announced yesterday, the Justice Department seized $3.4 million in cash, 144 weapons, more than 100 vehicles, and stashes of methamphetamines, cocaine, and marijuana. Patricia Espinosa, Mexico’s foreign minister, said the operation “is a very clear example of how co-operation [in the fight against drugs] has deepened. It is the result not only of the transfer of equipment but also of collaboration in general.” A grand jury in New York has indicted the alleged leaders of La Familia on charges of conspiracy to import cocaine and methamphetamines.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) inaugurated its first human rights commission on Friday, hailing it as a milestone for the regional bloc as it opened a three-day summit in Thailand. “The issue of human rights is not about condemnation, but about awareness, empowerment and improvement,” said Thailand’s prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva. “We shall not only demonstrate to the world that human rights is a priority but also show them realistic and constructive ways to deal with it,” he continued. According to a statement distributed by the Thai government, the commission would “promote and protect human rights by promoting public awareness and education,” but it will have no power to investigate governments or impose sanctions. This has raised concerns among some human rights activists, who called the body toothless and questioned its credibility, especially when “civil society” representatives from several countries were rejected by their governments at the meetings. “The commission has not been designed to be effective and impartial,” said Debbie Stothard, a human rights activist from Malaysia. Southeast Asia’s human rights record is blemished at best—Myanmar’s military government is currently detaining more than 2,000 political prisoners, including opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi; Cambodia’s parliament passed a law this week barring demonstrations of more than 200 people; Malaysia, which maintains tight controls on its media outlets, also detains people it deems a threat to national security without trial; and in southern Thailand, an ongoing military offensive against an Islamic separatist insurgency has drawn criticism from organizations like Human Rights Watch for its brutal policing tactics.

Meanwhile, the UN envoy to North Korea called that nation’s human rights situation “abysmal,” saying that about one third of its people are needlessly going hungry. In a report to a meeting of UN members, envoy Vitit Muntarbhorn said, “the human rights situation in the country remains abysmal owing to the repressive nature of the power base: at once cloistered, controlled and callous.” Though North Korea is “endowed with vast mineral resources controlled by the authorities,” millions still live in “abject poverty and suffer the prolonged deprivations linked with shortage of food and other necessities…. The exploitation of the ordinary people has become the pernicious prerogative of the ruling elite,” he continued. But Pak Tok-hun, North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the UN, said the report was “full of distortion, lies, falsity, devised by hostile forces.” Fresh UN sanctions were imposed on North Korea this year in response to its nuclear program, and international aid reaching the country fell significantly. Because of this shortfall, the UN’s World Food Program has been able to support fewer than 2 million people; earlier this year, it was feeding nearly 6 million.

Chinese officials on Friday celebrated the launching of ChiNext, China’s growth enterprise market (GEM), which seeks to attract investment to its emerging entrepreneurial sector. The launch emphasizes China’s ongoing experiment with privatization and innovation as a means of creating jobs and stimulating robust economic growth—heralding a growing focus on smaller enterprise. He Chengying, a development manager with Guosen Securities, noted that ChiNext “is especially necessary to help the small and medium-sized enterprises to raise funds after the global financial crisis. The time is ripe to launch the new board.” China’s other two stock exchanges, in Shanghai and Shenzhen, are dominated by state-owned enterprises, mostly large, industrial firms. The first group of 28 GEM firms will debut October 30 and include sectors of innovative energy and materials, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, advanced manufacturing, information technology, and modern service industries. The initial public offerings (IPOs) raised a combined $2.3 billion, though some analysts remarked that the stocks are overvalued and might precipitate speculation and market manipulation—ills that have plagued some Western economies and which China has sought to avoid.

Meanwhile, the U.S. congressional advisory panel, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, reported Thursday that Chinese cyberspying, apparently supported by the government in Beijing, has successfully penetrated several U.S. “high technology development” firms, a move likely intended to steal intellectual property and assess its competitors. The Commission did not, however, publicly name the firms or provide a damage assessment. A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington flatly denied the accusation.

The Electoral Complaints Commission has concluded that Afghan President Hamid Karzai failed to win a majority 50% of votes in the August 20 Afghan presidential election. Karzai was declared the winner in a preliminary judgment issued several days after the election. The ECC, supported by the UN and composed of both Afghan and foreign officials, assessed allegations of widespread voter fraud and, after invalidating fraudulent ballots, has reportedly determined Karzai earned just 48% of all votes, triggering a second round of voting. The runoff, against his principal rival Abdullah Abdullah, is controversial. Karzai himself has announced he will reject any decision that does not confirm his outright victory, believing fraud allegations are a western conspiracy to depose him. The approach of the harsh winter, as well as Afghan disaffection with the political process amid continuing Taliban threats, may dramatically lower voter turnout in a second round. Still, some analysts believe the second round is necessary to legitimize the election. President Obama is not likely to make a decision on American policy in Afghanistan until the election is finalized. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel told CNN on Sunday, “I think it would be irresponsible and…reckless to make a decision on U.S. troop levels if, in fact, you haven’t done a thorough analysis of whether in fact there’s an Afghan partner ready to fill that space.” President Obama’s national security team is meeting today for at least the sixth time in recent weeks to continue its strategic review.

Iran is vowing to take revenge against the United States and Britain after a suicide bombing killed six Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders over the weekend, and 42 total. The latest tension between Iran and the West comes as both sides are meeting with the International Atomic Energy Agency today in Vienna to discuss the Iranian nuclear program. The Guards’ commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari, said he has seen documents that show links between Jundullah, a Sunni terrorist organization based in Pakistan, and the United States and Britain. Both countries, including Pakistan, have denied involvement, but Jafari maintained “there will have to be retaliatory measures to punish them.” Various reports over the last few years have tied U.S. support to Jundullah as a means of destabilizing the Iranian government, but the United States has denied any direct funding. In order to forestall any problems in ongoing negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program, British prime minister Gordon Brown said it is important to mtaintain a diplomatic dialogue with Iran despite the recent bombing. In a gesture to the West, Iran invited Mohamed ElBaradei to Iran, the IAEA chief, to “discuss a number of matters.”

Pakistan continued its military offensive in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas for a third day, targeting Taliban militants in South Waziristan as both Pakistani army officers and Taliban spokesmen claimed early victories. One of the targets was the hometown of Taliban commander Qari Hussain, whom Pakistani officials believe to be the architect of the Taliban’s ongoing suicide bombing campaign. Meanwhile, U.S. Senator John Kerry is in Islamabad to discuss the $7.5 billion Kerry-Lugar bill that triples non-military aid to Pakistan. Some Pakistani officials have said the money undermines the country’s national sovereignty by requiring that the U.S. secretary of state verify that the civilian government is exercising control over the military. Some 30,000 Pakistani troops are fighting an estimated 10,000 Taliban militants, who are accused of launching attacks across the country in the last two weeks, including a raid on Pakistan’s army headquarters. More than 175 people have died in these incidents. Some believe that 250,000 refugees could flee from the fighting, which is expected to last six to eight weeks, at which point the onset of winter weather could halt the offensive.

Russia is preparing to issue its first international bond since 2000, designed to raise $18 billion in dollar-denominated securities. Russia is seeking the funds for infrastructure development and, while it retains about $400 billion in foreign reserves, it has spent $200 billion since August to support the ruble. One Russian banker noted that the contraction of credit markets offers Russia “the right climate for an international bond.” Russia’s FY09 budget deficit was its first since 1999, and Russia is anticipated to run a deficit for the next three years. Russian officials are expected in London next month to assess the market’s future. Russian bonds are expected to be a stable investment as long as oil prices remain steady and Russia avoids any military engagements with Georgia or other neighbors.

In a shift in U.S. policy, president Barack Obama has offered Sudan incentives designed to allow the regime to demonstrate a commitment to peace with rebel groups in Darfur. But he threatened “increased pressure” if the two sides failed to make progress. “First, we must seek a definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses and genocide in Darfur,” Obama said. “Second, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the north and south in Sudan must be implemented to create the possibility of long-term peace.” The incentives being discussed include normalization of diplomatic relations and removal from the list of nations considered state sponsors of terrorism, Robert Lawrence, director of policy and government relations of Save Darfur told World Policy Journal. Relief of some or all of Sudan’s $36 billion in international debt has also been discussed as a potential incentive, he added. The United States currently has sanctions in place against Khartoum. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed that Sudan would be entitled to the incentives if it demonstrated “verifiable changes” to end the conflict in Darfur. “Words alone are not enough,” she added. Secretary Clinton said the United States would closely monitor Sudanese elections scheduled for next year, a provision of the 2005 peace agreement aimed at ending the civil war between the largely Arab government and the black Darfuris. The elections have been postponed twice. The U.S. said it welcomed talks between officials from Sudan and Chad over the weekend, conducted as an attempt to normalize relations between the two neighbors after both countries accused the other of aiding rebel groups.

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai said his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party has “disengaged” from Zimbabwe’s coalition government, and noted that President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party was an “unreliable” partner. Tsvangirai and Mugabe agreed to a power-sharing deal in February after disputed elections in 2008 led to widespread political violence, but the parties have since disagreed on several issues, especially the particulars of government appointments. On Friday, Tsvangirai announced that MDC would officially pull out from cabinet, council of ministers, and other routine government meetings after senior MDC official Roy Bennett was jailed Wednesday on terrorism charges. “Roy Bennett is not being prosecuted; he is being persecuted,” Tsvangirai told reporters. “It has brought home the reality that as a movement we have an unreliable and unrepentant partner in the transitional government.” Zimbabwe’s High Court released Bennett on bail following Tsvangirai’s remarks, but the prime minister maintained that MDC and Zanu-PF had critical issues that must be worked out before he would agree to re-engage the power-sharing process. “Until confidence has been restored, we can’t continue to pretend that everything is well,” he said.

A runoff election is expected in Afghanistan. The U.N.-backed Afghan Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), which on Thursday completed its audit of suspect ballots from August’s disputed presidential vote, significantly reduced President Hamid Karzai’s margin of victory. The ECC’s tally, which one official called “stunning,” gave Karzai 47 percent of the vote—much lower than the 54.6 percent originally reported and below the 50 percent required to avoid a second round of elections. Afghanistan’s ambassador in Washington, Said Tayeb Jawad, said Thursday that a runoff election between Karzai and second-place challenger Abdullah Abdullah is “a very likely scenario.” Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission will now subtract the votes that were disqualified by the ECC, and results are expected this weekend. The results weigh heavily on President Obama’s thinking regarding solidifying his Afghanistan war strategy, and The New York Times reports his advisers are split over whether to deploy additional troops while the political situation in Kabul is still so tenuous.

For more on the possible implications of electoral fraud in Afghanistan, see last week’s The Big Question on the World Policy Blog.

Five new members to the U.N. Security Council were chosen on Thursday after running uncontested races for non-permanent, non-veto-wielding seats. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Gabon, Lebanon, and Nigeria were elected by secret ballot in the General Assembly for the two-year terms, which are allocated by region. As of January 2010, these five new nations will join Austria, Japan, Mexico, Turkey, and Uganda, whose terms run from 2009-10. “It’s going to be an even stronger Security Council, I think, next year,” John Sawers, Britain’s ambassador to the U.N., told reporters. “We have two large countries in Brazil and Nigeria who carry the weight of being a regional power. We have two countries in Lebanon and Bosnia that have been through conflict and can bring their own national experiences to the Security Council,” he continued. This will be Bosnia and Herzegovina’s first time serving on the council, which has the authority to impose sanctions and send peacekeeping troops.

Today marks World Food Day, designated by the United Nations as October 16. In addition to report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) earlier this week, the U.K.-based non-governmental organization ActionAid also released a new report on global hunger. In it, ActionAid praises China and India for its efforts to reduce chronic hunger, but sharply criticizes India for policies that actually worsened its hunger crisis; draughts have plagued India this year especially but, with little government help, over the last decade more than 30 million more Indians are now suffering chronic hunger. China, meanwhile, has helped feed an additional 58 million of its citizens through strong support of small farmers. The report ranks the efforts of advanced industrialized nations to help end global hunger, and puts the United States and New Zealand at the bottom, under the label: “miserly.” On Thursday, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation announced $120 million in grants for agricultural research and development, in addition to previous foundation grants of $1.4 billion. Speaking to hunger activists at the World Food Prize symposium in Iowa, Gates said, “The world’s attention is back on your cause. The food crisis has forced hunger higher on the world’s agenda.” This summer the G-8 approved the L’Aquila Food Security Initiative to commit $20 billion to sustainable agricultural development.

Adopted in 2005 at the United Nations’ World Summit, the doctrine of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) represents a remarkable evolutionary step for the international state system. R2P, which was pushed by then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in the wake of the Rwandan genocide, seeks to ensure that another Rwanda (or Cambodia or Holocaust) will never happen again.

It argues that states have the responsibility to protect their populations from mass atrocities, namely genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. And, more controversially, where states are unable or unwilling to provide this security, the onus of protection falls to the larger international community. This element of a transfer of a responsibility—from individual states to the broader global community of states—marks an radical step in world order, a further movement away from state-centric anarchy and ad hoc coalition-building toward collective action.

R2P has its detractors, however. Defenders of the supremacy of state sovereignty warn that R2P undermines the status quo, Westphalian system. Others caution that R2P is no more than an excuse for imperially minded big states to intervene in the affairs of smaller states. This latter argument has much traction in the case of the UN’s mission in Haiti. Yet, as Jonas Claes argues in a recent R2P debate on The Mantle, “in general, those fragile states most likely to end up on the receiving end of R2P-inspired military operations seem very supportive of R2P.”

Practically speaking, implementing R2P presents a challenge as well. It is difficult to motivate states into action that requires blood and treasure where they see little national interest. And still others, namely the United States, have reservations about putting their own soldiers under the command of other governments or the United Nations. “The political will to use military action to halt crimes on the ground has been markedly absent,” notes Savita Pawnday, the Office and Outreach Coordinator for the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, in a provocative essay. “Thus, the problem of the fragile, weak or non-existent state is not applicable of R2P, but rather, its operationalization and the need for a wide range of measures that take into account the different political realities of conflicts.”

And despite its adoption by the UN General Assembly four years ago, R2P has barely been used as a means to protect vulnerable populations. The continuing tragedies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and to some extent in Gaza, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka—where a lack of international intervention allows ongoing bloodletting—are cases in point.

Still, R2P remains an emerging norm with many pitfalls, both operationally and philosophically. Despite this, in September of this year, the UNGA adopted resolution A/RES/63/308, which further supports R2P as a norm and seeks ways to move it forward.

Questions surrounding R2P remain. The Mantle, a new online forum for critique and debate, recently launched its inaugural roundtable discussion, “Whose Responsibility to Protect?” This first roundtable centers on issues underpinning R2P. Five young professionals, including moderator Marie Mainil, steeped in R2P debate, grapple with the complexities of the doctrine, such as the responsibility of protection in “failed states,” corralling the political will—or lack thereof—to implement R2P, and more.

I invite you to view their thought-provoking discussion on The Mantle and to join in on the debate as well.

Shaun Randol is an associate fellow at the World Policy Institute and the founder and editor of The Mantle (www.mantlethought.org).

After announcing the existence of a previously undisclosed nuclear facility last week, Iran successfully test-fired surface-to-surface Shahab-3 long-range missiles. Iran declared the nuclear plant to the International Atomic Energy Agency last Monday after reportedly learning that U.S. intelligence agencies had been tracking the plant for some time. President Obama intended to reveal its existence at the opening of the G20 summit in Pittsburgh as diplomatic leverage in upcoming negotiations. The plant is located about 100 miles south of Tehran in the mountains near the holy city of Qom; Iran maintains the plant is for low-enriched uranium suitable only for domestic energy production and not highly-enriched uranium for nuclear weapons, and Iran conceded to allowing the IAEA to inspect the plant. But on Sunday and Monday, one week after Iran’s nuclear declaration and two weeks after President Obama refashioned President Bush’s missile defense shield, Iran began a series of successful missile launches of its short-, medium-, and long-range missiles, which could reach a maximum distance of 2,000 kilometers. This is far enough to strike Israel or U.S. military bases in the Gulf.  Iran is scheduled to meet Thursday in Geneva with the P5+1—the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany—for preliminary negotiations on a range of issues including proliferation, though Iran insists its domestic nuclear program is not negotiable.  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Sunday that the Iranians must “present convincing evidence as to the purpose of their nuclear program. We don’t believe that they can present convincing evidence, that it’s only for peaceful purposes, but we are going to put them to the test.”  The United States is preparing to impose additional sanctions on Iran through the U.N. Security Council should negotiations fail, though the U.S. is also quietly assembling a coalition outside the Security Council should China or Russia veto a sanctions package. Russia and China maintain economic interests in Iran and many European nations believe existing sanctions against Iran have proven ineffective in persuading the Iranian government, only negatively affecting the people of Iran.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic party won a 33.8% plurality and maintained majority control in parliamentary elections in Germany on Sunday. Center-left Social Democrats posted their worst ever showing and the pro-business Free Democrats earned their best ever showing since World War II. Merkel will proceed to form a new coalition with the Free Democrats, which she believes will be a less strained coalition than in the past four years with liberal parties. The new coalition will focus on reducing unemployment and stimulating the economy with a two-stage $22 billion tax cut, even as public debt continues to increase.  The two parties may find some friction in upcoming talks as the Free Democrats campaigned for far more conservative policies, seeking deeper tax cuts, restricting Merkel’s healthcare reform efforts, and nuances of Germany’s foreign policy. “We’ll have to argue over several issues,” Merkel said Sunday evening, but stressed to Germans that the government would not dismantle the welfare state. Because all major parties endorse the 4,200 German presence in Afghanistan, excepting the far left, the election is unlikely to change that commitment in either direction.

The foreign ministers of India and Pakistan failed to agree at the United Nations last week on resuming general negotiations and Indian FM SM Krishna rejected a Pakistani proposal to conduct informal discussions even absent formal negotiations.  After fighting three wars with each other over the disputed border land of Kashmir since 1947, the two nuclear-armed nations began a peace process in 2004 but discussions have been strained by rival interests in Afghanistan and, especially, since November 2008 when India blamed Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based militant organization, for killing 174 in the Indian financial capital, Mumbai.  India requests that Pakistan apprehend and prosecute those responsible.  Pakistani FM Qureshi announced the arrest of seven people connected to the attacks, with prosecution scheduled to begin October 3.  Indian FM Krishna acknowledged, “Pakistan has taken some steps within its own legal system against those directly responsible for the attack on Mumbai, and the process thus instituted must gather further momentum.”  Meanwhile, India announced that it has built highly destructive nuclear weapons, enabling what Indian officials consider a “proper strategic deterrent” in its international relations.  Senior Indian officials say their weapon yields 200 kilotons; a nuclear weapon with a yield of 50 kilotons is considered “high yield.”  The test is likely to further strain relations with Pakistan and perhaps jeopardize the U.S.-India civilian nuclear agreement enacted last October under President Bush.  President Obama proposed at the U.N. General Assembly that nations, such as India, joint the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as non-nuclear nations, a proposal India quickly rejected.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey will formally sign an agreement to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia on October 10, furthering a roadmap agreed upon in April toward normalizing relations. Though Turkey still disputes Armenia’s claim that mass Turkish killings of Armenians during World War I constitutes genocide, it seeks “zero problems with neighbors,” to quote the motto of Turkish academic and Minster of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu. Turkey, a member of NATO and prospective member of the European Union, has engaged as a mediator in Middle Eastern conflicts, most notably the Israeli-Palestinian peace process during the 2008 Gaza War, and is also seeking to improve relations with its Kurdish citizens. The Kurds, after rebelling twenty-five years ago, prompted Turkey to ban the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which the United States lists as a terrorist organization. Turkey’s reconciliation with the Kurds could dramatically improve its relation with Iraq, where a large number of Kurds settle in the autonomous northern region, projecting Turkey further into Middle Eastern affairs.